Dec 06

Singapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table – 5 December 2016

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditmail

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) decreases from 730.39 to 722.05 (-1.14%) compare to last post on Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Nov 5, 2016. The index is trading below the 200D SMA.  Take note that the 200D SMA is no longer sloping up and is currently flat. If the index continues to trade below 200D SMA and the 200D starts to slope down, the Singapore REIT sector will reverse to a confirmed down trend.  SGX S-REIT (REIT.SI) Index decreases from 1125.83 to 1111.15 (-1.30%).

ftse-st-reit-index-dec6-2016ftse-st-reit-index-6m-dec6-2016

  • Price/NAV decreases from  0.969 to 0.951 (Singapore Overall REIT sector is under value now) after recent sell off.
  • Distribution Yield increases from 7.07% to 7.22% (take note that this is lagging number). More than half of Singapore REITs (20 out of 39) have Distribution Yield > 7%. High yield REITs mainly from Hospitality Trust and small cap Industrial REIT. Selection of Singapore REITs have become much more important now because not all the high yield REITs has strong fundamental.
  • Gearing Ratio decreases from 35.15% to 35.09%.  24 out of 39 have Gearing Ratio more than 35%.
  • Most overvalue is Ascendas iTrust (Price/NAV = 1.623), followed by Parkway Life (Price/NAV = 1.476) and Keppel DC REIT (Price/NAV = 1.371)
  • Most undervalue (base on NAV) is Far East HTrust (Price/NAV = 0.634), followed by Sabana REIT (Price/NAV = 0.652) and Keppel REIT (Price/NAV = 0.745).
  • Highest Distribution Yield is Viva Industrial Trust (9.60%), Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (9.30%) followed by Sabana REIT (9.26%).
  • Highest Gearing Ratio is Croesus Retail Trust (44.6%), iREIT Global (42.5%), Sabana REIT (41.5%), Cache Logistic Trust (41.2%), Ascott REIT (41.0%) and OUE Commercial REIT (40.8%)

singapore-reit-fundamental-analysis-and-comparison-table-5-dec-2016

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. To learn how to use the table and make investing decision, Sign up next REIT Investing Seminar here to learn how to choose a fundamentally strong REIT for long term investing for passive income generation.

 

  • Singapore Interest Rate decreases from 0.12% to 0.07%

singapore-interest-rate-dec6-2016

singapore-sibor-dec6-2016

  • 1 month increases from 0.62417% to 0.67155%
  • 3 month increases from 0.87242% to 0.92538%
  • 6 month increases from 1.14530% to 1.21289%
  • 12 month increases from 1.31225% to 1.39817%

singapore-manufacturing-pmi-dec6-2016

Manufacturing PMI in Singapore increased to 50.20 in November from 50 in October of 2016. Manufacturing PMI in Singapore averaged 50.03 from 2012 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 51.90 in October of 2014 and a record low of 48.30 in October of 2012.

singapore-gdp-growth-rate-dec6-2016

The Singaporean economy contracted a seasonally-adjusted annualized 2 percent on quarter in the three months to September of 2016, compared to a 4.1 percent decline in preliminary estimates. Markets were expecting a 2.5 percent contraction. GDP Growth Rate in Singapore averaged 6.82 percent from 1975 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 37.20 percent in the first quarter of 2010 and a record low of -13.50 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008.

 

Singapore REITs in general is under value due the recent sell off after Donald Trump won the the US Presidential Election, and the market is anticipate a 80% probability of rate hike in Dec 2016. Distribution yield for some Singapore REITs with bigger market capitalization has become a little bit more attractive again. Should there be any knee jerk reaction if Janet Yellen announces the rate hike next week, it is a good opportunities to pick up some fundamental strong REIT.

Technically Singapore REITs sector is in bearish territory after breaking down the 200D SMA support. We need to wait for the Singapore REIT Index to find the support after FOMC meeting next week to plan the entry. Happy hunting but don’t hunt the wrong one!

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com

Check out coming seminars at http://mystocksinvesting.com/events

 

 

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditmail
Dec 05

Weekly Inter Market Analysis Dec 4-2016

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditmail

See previous week Weekly Inter Market Analysis.

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com

 

SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF)

Profit taking after SPY broke the all time high resistance at 219.31 and entered into uncharted territory.  A healthy retracement is needed for SPY to move higher. Take note that the bullish between Nov to April seasonal cycle is going to start.

  • Immediate resistance – 221.50
  • Immediate support: about 219-220. (have to turn to support for SPY to move higher)
  • Resistance turned support zone: 211-213.
  • Rising Wedge immediate support: about 210.
  • 200D SMA support (trending up): about 211

spy-dec4-2016

 

VIX

VIX continues to stay within the complacent zone. No fear when Santa Claus is coming to town.

vix-dec4-2016

 

Sector Performance (SPDR Sector ETF)

  • Best Sectors: Energy (XLE) +2.09% due to a huge spike in Crude Oil price.
  • Worst Sector: Technology (XLK)  -2.68%.

sector-performance-dec4-2016

 

SUDX (S&P US Dollar Futures Index)

SUDX is currently facing resistance and due for a correction. SUDX has moved too high too fast and definitely need a pause or retrace before moving higher.

sudx-dec4-2016

 

FXE (Currency Shares Euro ETF)

FXE looks like finding a support at around 103 and is currently rebounding.

fxe-dec4-2016

 

XLE (SPDR Energy Sector ETF)

XLE is currently facing the previous support turned resistance, and also the uptrend channel resistance.

xle-dec4-2016

 

 

USO (United States Oil Fund)

USO rebounded from the Symmetrical Triangle support and currently testing the resistance. Expect USO to trade within the range until breakout.

uso-dec4-2016

 

TLT (iShares 20+ Years Treasury Bond ETF)

TLT is find support at 118. Wait for the reversal and re-look at the bond market for bargain hunting. Some of the bonds can be very attractive after the recent sell off.

tlt-dec4-2016

 

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares)

GLD looks like finding support at about 112. Will it rebound from here?

gld-dec4-2016

 

Next Week Economic Calendar

Key events:

  • Crude Oil Inventory on Dec 8 (Thursday)
  • ECB Press Conference on Dec 8 (Thursday)
  • US Unemployment Claims  on Dec 8 (Thursday)

economic-calendar-dec4-dec11-2016

See upcoming Events here. http://mystocksinvesting.com/events/

 

Weekly Market Summary.

 

 

 

 

 

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditmail
Nov 30

Dissecting Impact on Global Oil Trade in Trump Era

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditmail

With Donald Trump getting elected as the 45th US president, OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) might have to work harder to prop up crude oil prices. As Trump vouched during his election campaign to unlock all federal land and waters for exploration of fossil fuels and to increase U.S. oil output, OPEC nations fear a reduced demand for crude and weaker outlook for global oil trade.  Trump also vowed to block all oil imports from Saudi Arabia and tighten the trade policies with Iran. Trump has frequently criticized West’s nuclear deal with Iran, an agreement which has helped Tehran to boost their crude oil exports significantly this year. Iran expects Trump Administration to stay committed with the nuclear deal, but there is a possibility that he might revoke the nuclear deal with Iran which he has ridiculed strongly. If this happens, there is a possibility of crude oil prices to rise.

Daniel Yergin, who is the currently the vice-chairman of HIS Markit think tank and is a Pulitzer Prize-winning oil historian has quoted that global economy could be more uncertain and turbulent in Trump era. He said it would likely result in weaker economic growth which will in turn reduce global demand for oil. Oil prices dropped almost 4% to $43 a barrel, early on Tuesday Nov 8th after the election results were announced with Trump chosen as the next US president. Due to excess supplies, oil prices have fallen below half their price levels compared to 2014.OPEC members have planned to meet on Nov 30th to discuss about limiting crude production in an attempt to minimize the global oil glut which has resulted in recent drop of oil prices.

Trump has pledged during his campaign to double the economic growth in US and vouched for protectionist trade policies which have caused worries among the OPEC nations about reduced demand for crude oil from US.  Still there is lot of uncertainty prevailing about what sort of trade policies Trump might pursue with the Middle East. Trump was in favour of removing the regulations against oil sector and opening up all federal land for drilling in order to uncover new oil reserves. The US independent oil and gas producers as well as major oil manufacturers like Exxon Mobil and Chevron which are tied to the U.S shale industry have witnessed a huge surge in their share prices. US economy has gained significantly in recent years through their shale oil production in form of WTI crude oil.

Trump’s plans to minimize US reliance on OPEC oil and to gain energy independence have caused worries to Saudi Arabia which is the leading OPEC exporter of oil. Trump also emphasized during his campaign that for US to continue imports of Brent crude oil, Saudi Arabia should be committed in fighting against ISIS terrorists in Syria and Iraq. 

As quoted by aomarkets.com, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid-al-Falih mentioned during his speech‘… President-elect Trump will see the benefits and I think the oil industry will also be advising him accordingly that blocking trading any product is not healthy.”He also added thatthe US continues to be a very important part of a global industry that is interconnected that is dealing with a fungible commodity which is crude oil. So having equalization through free trade is very healthy for oil”. He also mentioned that US benefits a lot from global free trade than other countries and adding energy will be lifeblood of global economy. It’s worth to be noted Saudi Arabia is the major exporter of crude oil with 33% of OPEC’s oil exports to US coming from them. As of August 2016, United States has imported more than 3.5 million barrels of oil per day from OPEC.

Trump also seems to be very much interested in having a friendly relationship with Russia which is also a major producer of crude oil. Vladimir Putin was one of the first few global leaders whom he spoke with after his success in the US election. So there is a possibility for US to increase oil imports from Russia and cut down the imports from OPEC countries. Since crude oil is traded in terms of dollar, the rise in USD will have downward pressure on oil prices. Also with ongoing talks about Federal interest rate hikes during December, there is a greater possibility for dollar value to grow much stronger which is a very bad news for oil markets since it may push the oil prices further down.

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditmail