Singapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table – 5 February 2017

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increases from 709.49 to 732.7 (+3.19%) compare to last post on Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Jan 2, 2017. The index is still trading below the 200D SMA after the recent rebound. FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trust Index is currently trading within a Rectangle and expected to move within the range between 740 and 700.  SGX S-REIT (REIT.SI) Index increases from 1092.36 to 1127.74 (+3.24%).

  • Added EC World REIT into the table.
  • Price/NAV increases from  0.942 to 0.962 (Singapore Overall REIT sector is slightly under value now).
  • Distribution Yield decreases from 7.32% to 7.13% (take note that this is lagging number). More than half of Singapore REITs (23 out of 40) have Distribution Yield > 7%. High yield REITs mainly from Hospitality Trust and small cap Industrial REIT, but we must understand the risks while chasing for the high yield. Check out How to spot those Fundamentally strong REIT with attractive yield to build up a Passive Income Portfolio?
  • Gearing Ratio decreases from 35.11% to 34.87%.  22 out of 40 have Gearing Ratio more than 35%.
  • Most overvalue is Ascendas iTrust (Price/NAV = 1.535), followed by Parkway Life (Price/NAV = 1.441), FIRST REIT (Price/NAV = 1.282) and Keppel DC REIT (Price/NAV = 1.28)
  • Most undervalue (base on NAV) is Sabana REIT (Price/NAV = 0.574), followed by Far East HTrust (Price/NAV = 0.64) and Fortune REIT (Price/NAV = 0.698).
  • Highest Distribution Yield is SoilBuild BizREIT (9.89%), followed by Cache Logistic Trust (9.25%) and Viva Industrial Trust (9.09%). All these 3 are small Cap Industrial REITs.
  • Highest Gearing Ratio is Croesus Retail Trust (45.3%), iREIT Global (42.5%), Sabana REIT (43.2%) and Cache Logistic Trust (43.1%).

 

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. To learn how to use the table and make investing decision, Sign up next REIT Investing Seminar here to learn how to choose a fundamentally strong REIT for long term investing for passive income generation.

 

  • Singapore Interest Rate increases from 0.06% to 0.46%.
  • Take note of the past historical interest rate and how high the rate can go. This is an important factor to keep a close eye for Singapore REIT investing because REIT leverages on debt to generate DPU. Current Singapore interest rate is abnormally low and will not stay low forever.

  • 1 month decreases from 0.71638% to 0.71463%
  • 3 month decreases from  0.96271% to 0.96188%
  • 6 month decreases from  1.25050% to 1.24700%
  • 12 month increases from 1.43317% to 1.43517%

The Singapore Manufacturing PMI increased to 51 in January of 2017 from 50.6 in the previous month. The reading pointed to the strongest expansion in the factory activity since November 2014, led by increases in new orders, new exports, industrial output and inventory holding. Employment reverted to a marginal increase after recording contractions since November 2014. Also, the PMI for electronics sector rose to 51.8 from 51.2 in December. Manufacturing PMI in Singapore averaged 50.03 from 2012 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 51.90 in October of 2014 and a record low of 48.30 in October of 2012.

 Singapore’s economy grew a seasonally adjusted annualized 9.1 percent on quarter in the three months to December of 2016, following a downwardly revised 1.9 percent contraction in the previous period and beating market expectations of a 3.7 percent expansion, the preliminary estimate showed. It was the strongest growth rate since the second quarter of 2013, mainly due to a rebound in manufacturing (+14.6 percent from -8.1 percent in Q3) and services (+9.4 percent from -0.4 percent) while construction continued to fall (-4.7 percent from -14.8 percent). GDP Growth Rate in Singapore averaged 6.84 percent from 1975 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 37.20 percent in the first quarter of 2010 and a record low of -13.50 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008.

Singapore REITs sector is currently range bound and FTSE ST REIT index is expected to trade within a range between 700 to 740. 700 support level could be a good level to accumulate some fundamental strong REITs as the valuation base on Price/NAV and Distribution yield can become attractive again.  Two questions may interest all the retail investors: WHEN is the right and safe time and WHAT REIT to pick? Check out the next Investing in Singapore REIT course here.

See my Singapore REIT 2017 Market Outlook here.

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com

Check out coming seminars at http://mystocksinvesting.com/events

 

 

 

 

2017 – So Far, So Good?

By Sani Hamid, Director (Economy & Market Strategy)

Rising Risks

At the moment, we feel there is a sense of “lingering optimism” that the rally we saw in the second half of last year – from the June Brexit lows which continued and even got a boost from Trump’s November electoral win – is merely taking a breather. It’s hard to fault such thinking. After all, markets are higher today – the S&P500 is up 18.5%, Stoxx 600 +18.8% and MSCI Emerging Market +19.8 – than where they were from the Brexit lows despite going through two of the most turbulent events in recent political history.

 

As mentioned earlier, the rally seems to be taking a breather at the moment. Markets are generally holding up and, in some cases, apparently doing well. For example, take the Dow which crossed the psychological 20,000 for the first time in its history. Year-to-date, in Singapore dollar terms, the STI has also rallied sharply by just over 4%, while Asia is up 2.2% and Emerging Markets up 1.8%, based on their respective MSCI indices. Both Europe and the US are down a tad at 1.0% and 1.6% respectively based on the Stoxx 600 & S&P500 (see Chart 1).

 

An interesting point to note is that in local currency terms, both Europe and the US indices are in positive territory at 1.8% & 1.5% respectively but because of a stronger Singapore dollar, in local currency terms, these two indices are in negative territory as mentioned earlier. For example, year to-date, the Singapore dollar has appreciated against the US dollar by about 2% (see Chart 2).

 

“…the Trump administration to adopt an aggressive protectionism, anti-globalisation stance and a tough “American First” approach. Under this scenario, we could see U.S. markets rising by another 5%, while buoyed by stronger domestic-centric policies but off-set by weaker international trade. With a higher cost-of-production, there will a rise in inflationary expectations (+50bp) and the U.S. dollar will strengthen further by 10%. Emerging Markets would likely get hammered, declining by 20% as protectionism and trade wars break out, impacting exports severely. We attribute a 15% probability of this scenario taking place.”

 

We now believe that the odds of this scenario unfolding has increased to around 20-30% from our original estimate of 15%. Why? Because since taking office on January 20, 2017, the Trump administration has taken such a hardline stance that a lot of the rhetoric, which some argued would be toned down once he takes office, is now becoming actual policy. These include the building of a wall at the Mexican border and issues relating to immigration.

 

Such callous actions, to us, is going to be the hallmark of the Trump administration where “Everything is strictly business and if it doesn’t benefit America directly, we’re not spending our money and it’s not our problem”. And little wonder that China has already offered herself by saying recently that it is prepared to assume the global leadership role if necessary.

 

So what we have seen so far (a mere 10 days into the new administration!) tells us that the odds for the worst case is building up.

 

So what can we expect for the rest of 2017?

We can expect a whole lot more uncertainty, and the financial markets cannot remain immune to this. While presently driven by the excess liquidity in the system and a T.I.N.A. (There Is No Alternative) mentality, eventually, the increasingly socio-political-economic storm that is being kicked-up by the Trump administration will eventually have its repercussions. As such we continue to advocate investors take an overall defensive stance. Are there still opportunities out there? Of course. But one has to be selective and most importantly, nimble enough to get risk off the table when needed in a timely manner. One key development to look out for is the Trump administration’s relationship with the press. This seems to be at an all-time low and is set to go even lower with the White House chief strategist, Stephen Bannon, calling the press the “opposition party” of the current administration, that it should “keep its mouth shut” and that the media has “zero integrity, zero intelligence, and no hard work”.

Unlike Watergate, where it took a blotched burglary to unravel Washington’s biggest scandal at that time to lead to President Nixon’s resignation, we believe the press will have a field day finding reasons to put President Trump on the back foot.

 

Comment from Blog Owner of My Stocks Investing Journey:

Markets are expected to be volatile after Trump takes office. Interested to know where are the investment risks and opportunities? I manage to convince Sani Hamid (often seen on CNBC) to share with us on Trump Era; Where are the Risks & Opportunities?

Come join me to learn from him at this free workshop I’m organising on 13 Feb and share with / bring some friends: Register here https://msi170213.eventbrite.sg/

Global Stock Market Indices PE Ratio At a Glance (24 Jan 2017)

  • US: Dow Jones Industrial, S&P500, NASDAQ, Russell 2000
  • Europe: FTSE100, CAC40, DAX
  • Asia: KLCI, STI, HangSeng, ASX200, CSI 300, JCI, SET, KOSPI, NIKKEI 225, SENSEX, TWSE, NZX50, PSEi
  • Best Performer: Argentina Merval index up for 21.73% followed by Brazil IBX index up by 13.45%!.
  • Worst Perfomer: Nikkei 225 down for -3.29% with PE Ratio of 25.25
  • Singapore STI has the PE ratio of 12.17 compare to the rest of the world in the following table.
  • Russia MICEX has the lowest PE ratio of 9.26 in the tracking table.
  • Added Emerging Market Stock Market Indices: Mexico MEX IPC, Brazil IBX, Argentina MAR, Russia MICEX.
  • EM (Emerging Market) rebounded strongly after last month sold off.

 

  •  PE  = Price Per Earning

See Dec-2016 Global Stock Market PE Ratio here.

 

 

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com

See other event here. http://mystocksinvesting.com/events/