Weekly Inter Market Analysis Dec 4-2016

See previous week Weekly Inter Market Analysis.

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com

 

SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF)

Profit taking after SPY broke the all time high resistance at 219.31 and entered into uncharted territory.  A healthy retracement is needed for SPY to move higher. Take note that the bullish between Nov to April seasonal cycle is going to start.

  • Immediate resistance – 221.50
  • Immediate support: about 219-220. (have to turn to support for SPY to move higher)
  • Resistance turned support zone: 211-213.
  • Rising Wedge immediate support: about 210.
  • 200D SMA support (trending up): about 211

spy-dec4-2016

 

VIX

VIX continues to stay within the complacent zone. No fear when Santa Claus is coming to town.

vix-dec4-2016

 

Sector Performance (SPDR Sector ETF)

  • Best Sectors: Energy (XLE) +2.09% due to a huge spike in Crude Oil price.
  • Worst Sector: Technology (XLK)  -2.68%.

sector-performance-dec4-2016

 

SUDX (S&P US Dollar Futures Index)

SUDX is currently facing resistance and due for a correction. SUDX has moved too high too fast and definitely need a pause or retrace before moving higher.

sudx-dec4-2016

 

FXE (Currency Shares Euro ETF)

FXE looks like finding a support at around 103 and is currently rebounding.

fxe-dec4-2016

 

XLE (SPDR Energy Sector ETF)

XLE is currently facing the previous support turned resistance, and also the uptrend channel resistance.

xle-dec4-2016

 

 

USO (United States Oil Fund)

USO rebounded from the Symmetrical Triangle support and currently testing the resistance. Expect USO to trade within the range until breakout.

uso-dec4-2016

 

TLT (iShares 20+ Years Treasury Bond ETF)

TLT is find support at 118. Wait for the reversal and re-look at the bond market for bargain hunting. Some of the bonds can be very attractive after the recent sell off.

tlt-dec4-2016

 

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares)

GLD looks like finding support at about 112. Will it rebound from here?

gld-dec4-2016

 

Next Week Economic Calendar

Key events:

  • Crude Oil Inventory on Dec 8 (Thursday)
  • ECB Press Conference on Dec 8 (Thursday)
  • US Unemployment Claims  on Dec 8 (Thursday)

economic-calendar-dec4-dec11-2016

See upcoming Events here. http://mystocksinvesting.com/events/

 

Weekly Market Summary.

 

 

 

 

 

Dissecting Impact on Global Oil Trade in Trump Era

With Donald Trump getting elected as the 45th US president, OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) might have to work harder to prop up crude oil prices. As Trump vouched during his election campaign to unlock all federal land and waters for exploration of fossil fuels and to increase U.S. oil output, OPEC nations fear a reduced demand for crude and weaker outlook for global oil trade.  Trump also vowed to block all oil imports from Saudi Arabia and tighten the trade policies with Iran. Trump has frequently criticized West’s nuclear deal with Iran, an agreement which has helped Tehran to boost their crude oil exports significantly this year. Iran expects Trump Administration to stay committed with the nuclear deal, but there is a possibility that he might revoke the nuclear deal with Iran which he has ridiculed strongly. If this happens, there is a possibility of crude oil prices to rise.

Daniel Yergin, who is the currently the vice-chairman of HIS Markit think tank and is a Pulitzer Prize-winning oil historian has quoted that global economy could be more uncertain and turbulent in Trump era. He said it would likely result in weaker economic growth which will in turn reduce global demand for oil. Oil prices dropped almost 4% to $43 a barrel, early on Tuesday Nov 8th after the election results were announced with Trump chosen as the next US president. Due to excess supplies, oil prices have fallen below half their price levels compared to 2014.OPEC members have planned to meet on Nov 30th to discuss about limiting crude production in an attempt to minimize the global oil glut which has resulted in recent drop of oil prices.

Trump has pledged during his campaign to double the economic growth in US and vouched for protectionist trade policies which have caused worries among the OPEC nations about reduced demand for crude oil from US.  Still there is lot of uncertainty prevailing about what sort of trade policies Trump might pursue with the Middle East. Trump was in favour of removing the regulations against oil sector and opening up all federal land for drilling in order to uncover new oil reserves. The US independent oil and gas producers as well as major oil manufacturers like Exxon Mobil and Chevron which are tied to the U.S shale industry have witnessed a huge surge in their share prices. US economy has gained significantly in recent years through their shale oil production in form of WTI crude oil.

Trump’s plans to minimize US reliance on OPEC oil and to gain energy independence have caused worries to Saudi Arabia which is the leading OPEC exporter of oil. Trump also emphasized during his campaign that for US to continue imports of Brent crude oil, Saudi Arabia should be committed in fighting against ISIS terrorists in Syria and Iraq. 

As quoted by aomarkets.com, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid-al-Falih mentioned during his speech‘… President-elect Trump will see the benefits and I think the oil industry will also be advising him accordingly that blocking trading any product is not healthy.”He also added thatthe US continues to be a very important part of a global industry that is interconnected that is dealing with a fungible commodity which is crude oil. So having equalization through free trade is very healthy for oil”. He also mentioned that US benefits a lot from global free trade than other countries and adding energy will be lifeblood of global economy. It’s worth to be noted Saudi Arabia is the major exporter of crude oil with 33% of OPEC’s oil exports to US coming from them. As of August 2016, United States has imported more than 3.5 million barrels of oil per day from OPEC.

Trump also seems to be very much interested in having a friendly relationship with Russia which is also a major producer of crude oil. Vladimir Putin was one of the first few global leaders whom he spoke with after his success in the US election. So there is a possibility for US to increase oil imports from Russia and cut down the imports from OPEC countries. Since crude oil is traded in terms of dollar, the rise in USD will have downward pressure on oil prices. Also with ongoing talks about Federal interest rate hikes during December, there is a greater possibility for dollar value to grow much stronger which is a very bad news for oil markets since it may push the oil prices further down.

Weekly Inter Market Analysis Nov 27-2016

See previous week Weekly Inter Market Analysis.

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com

 

SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF)

SPY broke the all time high resistance at 219.31 and entered into uncharted territory. Take note that the bullish between Nov to April seasonal cycle is going to start.

  • Immediate resistance – None
  • Historical high resistance: about 219-220. (have to turn to support for SPY to move higher)
  • Resistance turned support zone: 211-213.
  • Rising Wedge immediate support: about 210.
  • 200D SMA support (trending up): about 210

spy-nov-27-2016

 

VIX

VIX dropped back to complacent zone. No fear when Santa Claus is coming to town.

vix-nov-27-2016

 

Sector Performance (SPDR Sector ETF)

  • Best Sectors: Material (XLB) +2.57% & Industrial (XLI) +2.30% respectively
  • Worst Sector: Healthcare (XLV)  -0.32%.
  • Comment: It was a very bullish week with almost all the sectors gain more than 1% except Health Care.

sector-performance-nov-27-2016

 

SUDX (S&P US Dollar Futures Index)

SUDX broke out from the Mar high resistance at about 134.45 with a shooting star candlestick pattern. SUDX has moved too high too fast and definitely need a pause or retrace before moving higher.

sudx-nov-27-2016

 

FXE (Currency Shares Euro ETF)

FXE is currently testing another critical support at about 102.94.

fxe-nov-27-2016

 

XLE (SPDR Energy Sector ETF)

XLE broke the recent multiple tops resistance and continue to trade within the up trend channel. Watch for bull run for XLE. Current chart pattern shows energy sector has bottomed up and reversed to up trend.

xle-nov-27-2016

 

USO (United States Oil Fund)

USO is currently trading within range between 11.34 and 9.83 until breakout to either direction.

uso-nov-27-2016

 

TLT (iShares 20+ Years Treasury Bond ETF)

TLT is getting near to the 118 support but the chart has not shown the sell off has stopped. Wait for the reversal and re-look at the bond market for bargain hunting. Some of the bonds can be very attractive after the recent sell off.

tlt-nov-27-2016

 

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares)

GLD broke the 115 support and continues its down trend. Next support at about 112.

gld-nov-27-2016

 

Next Week Economic Calendar

Key events:

  • ECB President Draghi speaks on Nov 28 (Monday) and Nov 20 (Wednesday)
  • OPEC Meetings Nov 30 (Wednesday)
  • Crude Oil Inventory on Dec 1 (Thursday)
  • China Manufacturing PMI on Dec 1 (Thursday)
  • US Unemployment rate  on Dec 2 (Friday)
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI on Dec 2 (Friday)

economic-calendar-nov-27-dec-3-2016

See upcoming Events here. http://mystocksinvesting.com/events/

 

Weekly Market Summary.