Weekly Inter Market Analysis Sept 18-2016

See previous week Weekly Inter Market Analysis.

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com

SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF)

SPY rebounded from the resistance turned support zone. SPY is still trading in a Rising Wedge pattern. Keep an eye on on key supports:

  • Resistance turned support zone: 211-213
  • Rising Wedge immediate support: about 210
  • Previous Head and Shoulders neckline support: about 204.
  • Rising Wedge next support: about 200

spy-sept-18-2016

 

VIX

VIX retraces after last week 40% spike but expect volatility in the coming week as FOMC releases statement on Sept 21.vix-sept-18-2016

 

Sector Performance (SPDR Sector ETF)

  • Best Sectors: Technology (XLK), Utility (XLU) and Healthcare (XLV)
  • Worst Sector: Energy (XLE), Financial Services (XLFS) and Financial (XLF)
  • Note: Defensive sectors outperforms aggressive sectors. XLK outperforms due to Apple (AAPL) which has very high weighting of 14.22%.

spdr-sector-performance-sept-18-2016

xlk-holding

SUDX (S&P US Dollar Futures Index)

SUDX is currently trading within a Symmetrical Triangle and likely to be trading in a tight range until a breakout. Wait for Yellen’s speech on the interest rate hike confirmation.

sudxsept-18-2016

FXE (Currency Shares Euro ETF)

FXE is curently trading sideway and range bound. Wait for Yellen’s speech on the interest rate hike confirmation before we can see the next big move.

fxe-sept-18-2016

XLE (SPDR Energy Sector ETF)

XLE broke down from the uptrend channel. Next support to watch is 64.74. This support is quite strong as it has been tested for 5 times.

xle-sept-18-2016

 

USO (United States Oil Fund)

USO is currently trading in a Symmetrical Triangle. Keep an eye on the next move when USO is trading closer to the apex of the triangle. Watch next Wednesday Sept 21 Crude Oil inventories report.

uso-sept-18-2016

 

TLT (iShares 20+ Years Treasury Bond ETF)

TLT gapped down and broke the uptrend support. Next important resistance turned support at 132.49.
tlt-sept-18-2016

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares)

Gold is currently trading in a consolidation (Rectangle pattern) and still on uptrend.  Currently GLD is just sitting on an important resistance turned support at about 125. This support has been tested 3 times previously. Can this support hold? If this support is broken, there will be a trend reversal as it is a Triple Tops chart pattern breakdown.gld-sept-18-2016

 

Next Week Economic Calendar

Key event:

  • Japan Monetary Policy & BOJ press conference on Sept 20 Tuesday and Sept 21 Wednesday
  • FOMC statement on Sept 21 Wednesday
  • Crude oil inventories on Sept 21 Wednesday

economic-calendar-sept-18-sept-24-2016

 

Global Stock Market Indices PE Ratio At a Glance (17 Sept 2016)

Market Indices PE Ratio for Major Stock Exchange globally

  • US: Dow Jones Industrial, S&P500, NASDAQ, Russell 2000
  • Europe: FTSE100, CAC40, DAX
  • Asia: KLCI, STI, HangSeng, ASX200, CSI 300, JCI, SET, KOSPI, NIKKEI 225, SENSEX, TWSE, NZX50, PSEi
  • Best Performer: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI) up for 2.5% with PE Ratio of 12.52
  • Valuation of Global Stock Market is NOT cheap base on PE Ratio. Simple Average PE Ratio increases from 23.33 to 23.52 with most market with negative return for past month.

stock-market-key-indices-pe-ratio-sept16-2016

  •  PE  = Price Per Earning

See Aug-2016 Global Stock Market PE Ratio here.

shiller-pe-ratio-sept-18-2016

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com

Singapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table – 12 September 2016

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increases from 756.17 to 768.70 (+1.66%) compare to last post on Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on August 8, 2016. The index is rejected at the declining trend line resistance with an Evening Doji Star reversal pattern. Base on chart pattern, upside is limited although the index is still in bullish territory. SGX S-REIT (REIT.SI) Index increases from 1162.02  to 1183.53 (+1.85%)

ftse-st-reit-index-5y-sept-12-2016ftse-st-reit-index-6m-sept-12-2016

  • Price/NAV increases from  1.003 to 1.017 (Singapore Overall REIT sector is slightly over value now)
  • Distribution Yield decreases from 6.96% to 6.83% (take note that this is lagging number). Less than half of Singapore REITs (16 out of 39) have Distribution Yield > 7%. Not all the REITs have attractive yield now. A number of REITs like Capita Comm Trust, Capitaland Mall Trust, Frasers Centrepoint Trust, Keppel DC REIT, Mapletree Comm Trust, SPH REIT have less than 6% distribution yield. Selection of Singapore REITs have become much more important now because not all the high yield REIT has strong fundamental.
  • Gearing Ratio decreases from 34.50% to 34.44%.  20 out of 39 have Gearing Ratio more than 35%.
  • Most overvalue is Ascendas iTrust (Price/NAV = 1.623), followed by Parkway Life (Price/NAV = 1.549) and Keppel DC REIT (Price/NAV = 1.369)
  • Most undervalue (base on NAV) is Far East HTrust (Price/NAV = 0.645), followed by Sabana REIT (Price/NAV = 0.65) and Fortune REIT (Price/NAV = 0.779).
  • Highest Distribution Yield is Sabana REIT (9.52%), followed by Soilbuild Biz REIT (9.01%) and Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (8.95%)
  • Highest Gearing Ratio is Croesus Retail Trust (45.3%), iREIT Global (41.8%) and Sabana REIT (41.2%)

singapore-reit-fundamental-analysis-and-comparison-table-12-sep-2016

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. To learn how to use the table and make investing decision, Sign up next REIT Investing Seminar here to learn how to choose a fundamentally strong REIT for long term investing for passive income generation.

  • Singapore Interest Rate increases from 0.37% to 0.38%.

singapore-interest-rate-sept12-2016 sibor-sept-12-2016

  • 1 month decreases 0.63458% to 0.62233%
  • 3 month decreases from 0.87630% to 0.87192%
  • 6 month decreases from 1.15072% to 1.15071%
  • 12 month decreases from 1.31250% to 1.31183%

singapore-manufacturing-pmi-sept12-2016

The Singapore PMI increased to 49.8 in August of 2016 from 49.3 in the previous month. Although the reading pointed to the fourteenth consecutive month of contraction, new orders, new export orders, production and employment declined at a slower pace. Also, electronics sector expanded for the first time in 14 months (50.2 from 49.7 in July). Manufacturing PMI in Singapore averaged 50.13 from 2012 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 51.90 in October of 2014 and a record low of 48.30 in October of 2012. Manufacturing PMI in Singapore is reported by the Singapore Institute of Purchasing & Materials Management, SIPMM.

 

Singapore REITs in general is slightly over value now. Distribution yield for some Singapore REITs with bigger market capitalization is not very attractive. However, there are still opportunities in Singapore REITs with smaller market capitalization. The high distribution yield of these REITs are caused by huge drop in share price due to weak fundamental instead of strong DPU growth.  Technically Singapore REITs sector is in bullish territory and on uptrend but facing immediate declining trend line resistance. US Fed is now starting to talk about the interest rate hike which may put pressure on Singapore REITs moving forward.  Nevertheless, not all the REIT are affected by the rate hike due to the different debt profile. This may present an opportunity to pick up some fundamentally strong Singapore REITs if there is a knee jerk sell off in the Singapore REITs sector. Come and learn how to spot these gems and identify how to time an good entry in the coming Singapore REIT Investing course.

 

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com