Weekly Inter Market Analysis Oct 9-2016

See previous week Weekly Inter Market Analysis.

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com


SPY is currently forming a symmetrical triangle in a big Rising Wedge pattern. Symmetrical Triangle is a consolidation pattern until breakout. Keep an eye on on key supports:

  • Resistance turned support zone: 211-213
  • Rising Wedge immediate support: about 210
  • Previous Head and Shoulders neckline support: about 204.
  • Rising Wedge next support: about 200




VIX still stays below 15 – a complacent zone.



Sector Performance (SPDR Sector ETF)

  • Best Sectors: Financials (XLF) +1.66%
  • Worst Sector: Real Estate (XLRE) – 5.28%



SUDX (S&P US Dollar Futures Index)

SUDX broke out from the Symmetrical Triangle but immediately rejected at the support turned resistance at about 129.04 with a shooting star. Still need to wait for the confirmation of the breakout. Next FOMC statement on Nov 1/2.



FXE (Currency Shares Euro ETF)

FXE is still trading sideway and range bound. Have to wait till next FOMC statement on Nov 1/2 before we can see the next big move.



XLE (SPDR Energy Sector ETF)

Uptrend channel redrawn. XLE moves above 69.31. Critical support at 64.74 which has been tested for 5 times.



USO (United States Oil Fund)

USO broke out from Symmetrical Triangle but immediately rejected at the strong resistance with a Hanging Man with confirmation. Expect bearish reversal in the coming week.



TLT (iShares 20+ Years Treasury Bond ETF)

TLT broke 137.51 support and currently just resting on the next support at 132.5 with a Doji, indicates a pause in the recent down trend. Very interesting to see the sell down in TLT when SPY is moving side way.



GLD (SPDR Gold Shares)

  • GLD broke down from the support with a gap down. GLD is currently testing a 200D SMA support. Can this 200D SMA support hold? Take note that 200D SMA is still trending up.
  • Fibonacci Retracement level redrawn for GLD. Currently GLD is also sitting on the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Support.
  • Expect GLD to rebound from level.



Next Week Economic Calendar

Key events:

  • FOMC Meeting Minutes on Oct 13 (Thursday)
  • Crude Oil Inventory on Oct 14 (Friday)
  • Janet Yellen speaks on Oct 15 (Saturday)


Singapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table – 9 October 2016

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) decreases from 768.70 to 764.77 (-0.51%) compare to last post on Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Sept 12, 2016. The index is rejected at the declining trend line resistance and currently may be forming a right shoulders of a complicated Head and shoulders reversal pattern (i.e. 2 left shoulders).  Base on chart pattern, upside is limited although the index is still in bullish territory. SGX S-REIT (REIT.SI) Index increases from 1183.53 to 1176.60 (-0.59%).



  • Price/NAV decreases from  1.017  to 1.012 (Singapore Overall REIT sector is slightly over value now)
  • Distribution Yield increases from 6.83% to 6.87% (take note that this is lagging number). Less than half of Singapore REITs (17 out of 39) have Distribution Yield > 7%. High yield REITs mainly from Hospitality Trust and small cap Industrial REIT. Selection of Singapore REITs have become much more important now because not all the high yield REITs has strong fundamental.
  • Gearing Ratio remains at 34.44%.  20 out of 39 have Gearing Ratio more than 35%.
  • Most overvalue is Ascendas iTrust (Price/NAV = 1.669), followed by Parkway Life (Price/NAV = 1.537) and Keppel DC REIT (Price/NAV = 1.392)
  • Most undervalue (base on NAV) is Far East HTrust (Price/NAV = 0.651), followed by Sabana REIT (Price/NAV = 0.656) and Fortune REIT (Price/NAV = 0.753).
  • Highest Distribution Yield is Sabana REIT (9.43%), followed by Cache Logistic Trust (9.09%) and Viva Industrial Trust (9.02%)
  • Highest Gearing Ratio is Croesus Retail Trust (45.3%), iREIT Global (41.8%) and Sabana REIT (41.2%)



Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. To learn how to use the table and make investing decision, Sign up next REIT Investing Seminar here to learn how to choose a fundamentally strong REIT for long term investing for passive income generation.

  • Singapore Interest Rate remains at 0.38%.


  • 1 month remains at 0.62233%
  • 3 month increases from 0.87192% to 0.87242%
  • 6 month decreases from 1.15071% to 1.14421%
  • 12 month remains at 1.31183%



The Singapore Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.1 in September of 2016 from 49.8 in the previous month. The reading pointed to the expansion in the factory activity for the first time in 15 months, led by higher new orders, new exports, and output. Also, the electronics sector rose to 50.3 from 50.2 in August. Manufacturing PMI in Singapore averaged 50.03 from 2012 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 51.90 in October of 2014 and a record low of 48.30 in October of 2012. Manufacturing PMI in Singapore is reported by the Singapore Institute of Purchasing & Materials Management, SIPMM.


Singapore REITs in general is slightly over value now. Distribution yield for some Singapore REITs with bigger market capitalization is not very attractive. However, there are still opportunities in Singapore REITs with smaller market capitalization. Opportunities present in Hospitality sector as the valuation and yield is attractive but future DPU growth does not have good visibility.

Technically Singapore REITs sector is in bullish territory and on uptrend but facing immediate declining trend line resistance. Unlikely to see further upside in Singapore REIT sector due to the imminent potential interest hike end of the year after US Presidential Election.

Finally there is a REIT ETF launched in Singapore – PHILLIP SGX APAC DIVIDEND LEADERS REIT ETF. Check out Prospectus and Product Highlight Sheet here.

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com

Check out coming seminars at http://mystocksinvesting.com/events




By Chew Hock Beng

It may sound bizarre but the first step to making a profit in the stock market is to accept making a loss. Not a real loss, but what’s called a paper-loss i.e. mark-to-market valuation showing losses. This means that you must expect any investment you make to go down over the short-medium period, but in the long term it will very likely generate a profit. All this is not just some fancy theory, but based on what is commonly observed and involves investors’ psychology.

You may do a great amount of research work and put in hours to come up with an investment strategy and the investment-based financial planner whom you engaged may offer you the best investment advice. While this is good discipline, the reality is it by no means guaranteed success.

long-term-investingMaking sustainable profits from investment depends on endless factors, some predictable and others totally unforeseen. So, how do you ensure a good investment growth over long-term?

When you make an investment, you should be prepared not to expect any positive returns for the short to medium term. In such a case of uncertainty, expectation is what is considered the most likely to happen. Expectation is a belief centered to the future and it might or might not happen. More often than not, investors tend to feel disappointed when they do not expect the unexpected.

So expecting loss before gain will go a long way. Investors have to accept the fact that 99.9% of the time they will be unable to pick the bottom of market. But to ensure the odds are in their favor, investors must obtain good advice and acquire time. According to Newton’s law of gravity, what goes up must come down, what goes down must come up (except for one’s age!).

Expecting loss is an important psychological step to cross a bear market, when things are less rosy and negative market sentiment overrule. Bull markets can sometimes send you the wrong signals and lead you to think that the markets will never disappoint you. And, often investors get into without asking the right questions hoping to make quick profits. Then psychological expectations grow out of proportion and greed gets the better of them.

Investors would end up holding onto investment assets but with increasing and unnecessary risks. And when the markets crash without warning, it may be too late to exit (The Lehman Brothers) without getting burnt. One way is to adopt the “ERP” approach when various investment opportunities are evaluated. As an intelligent and informed investor you should not only be motivated by (P)erformances, but also be aware of taking calculated (R)isks and the cost of maintaining the investment or the (E)xpenses incurred.

Buying into an overly bullish market is clearly not based on taking calculated risks. On the other hand, when the market is more bearish, you could be able to identify the potential value in the capital market. Due to the less optimistic investing environment, you need to adopt a more practical return growth path and accept more realistic returns.

Your main focus is on the recovery and how you can ride on it. What we want is the return and not to be stuck with those funds that is not performing. Hence, the most important strategy is to buy only fundamentally sound diversified investments across asset classes, geographical regions and funds of reputable fund managers with strong investment ratings.

Getting over a negative state of mind through loss expectation is very important in a bear market. You should hold on to fundamentally strong investment assets on a long term basis and be prepared to take in the “paper loss” arising in the short term and mid term. Keep in mind, successful investors are in control of their emotions and are more likely to act on facts as opposed to feelings.

Patience and perseverance are two essential traits during a bearish market. If you are able to handle losses emotionally and come out of it, you would have more flexibility and adaptability to handle future uncertainty better. Even the best investment selection system would lose money if you do not have the right attitude, so develop a positive one. Always have a long term view, this is a sound investment strategy and has been proven to be successful towards building and preserving your core wealth.

So be prepared and expect incurring small loss to gain BIG profit!


I have the privilege to invite Mr Chew Hock Beng as guest speaker in my next seminar “How to Construct your investment retirement portfolio without losing sleep“. You sign up at the following link:



Chew Hock Beng is a Director in Financial Alliance. He is a Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC), Certified Life Underwriter (CLU), Certified Financial Planner (CFP) and holds a Bachelor of Engineering from NTU. Hock Beng entered the Financial Services industry upon graduation from NTU and has since received numerous accolades and achievements in the industry. He believes in adopting a balanced approach to carry out the financial touch together with his client to move away from the path of financial darkness and achieve Financial Enlightenment. He is inspired to keep things simple and ensure the delivery of sound and effective advice from someone who cares.