Singapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table – 5 November 2016

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) decreases from 764.77 to 730.39 (-4.49%) compare to last post on Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Oct 9, 2016. The index has broken the 200D SMA support and this is a bearish signal. However, 200D SMA is still trending up.  We need to see whether this REIT index can move above the 200D SMA again in the coming weeks else Singapore REIT sector will reverse to down trend.  SGX S-REIT (REIT.SI) Index decreases from 1176.60 to 1125.83 (-4.31%).

ftse-st-reit-index-nov5-2016ftse-st-reit-index-6m-nov5-2016

  • Price/NAV decreases from  1.012 to 0.969 (Singapore Overall REIT sector is slightly under value now) after recent sell off.
  • Distribution Yield increases from 6.87% to 7.07% (take note that this is lagging number). More than half of Singapore REITs (20 out of 39) have Distribution Yield > 7%. High yield REITs mainly from Hospitality Trust and small cap Industrial REIT. Selection of Singapore REITs have become much more important now because not all the high yield REITs has strong fundamental.
  • Gearing Ratio increases from 34.44% to 35.15%.  25 out of 39 have Gearing Ratio more than 35%.
  • Most overvalue is Ascendas iTrust (Price/NAV = 1.692), followed by Parkway Life (Price/NAV = 1.524) and Keppel DC REIT (Price/NAV = 1.36)
  • Most undervalue (base on NAV) is Far East HTrust (Price/NAV = 0.645), followed by Sabana REIT (Price/NAV = 0.652) and BHG Retait REIT (Price/NAV = 0.713).
  • Highest Distribution Yield is Viva Industrial Trust (9.54%), followed by Sabana REIT (9.26%) and BHG Retail REIT (8.99%).
  • Highest Gearing Ratio is Croesus Retail Trust (45.3%), iREIT Global (41.8%), Sabana REIT (41.5%), Cache Logistic Trust (41.2%), Ascott REIT (41.0%) and OUE Commercial REIT (40.8%)

singapore-reit-fundamental-analysis-and-comparison-table-6-nov-2016sinapore-reit-price-nav-chart-nov-6-2016

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. To learn how to use the table and make investing decision, Sign up next REIT Investing Seminar here to learn how to choose a fundamentally strong REIT for long term investing for passive income generation.

 

  • Singapore Interest Rate decreases from 0.38% to 0.12

singapore-interest-rate-nov5-2016

singapore-sibor-nov5-2016

  • 1 month increases from 0.62233% to 0.62417%
  • 3 month remains at 0.87242%
  • 6 month increases from 14421% to 1.14530%
  • 12 month increases from 1.31183% to 1.31225%

singapore-manufacturing-pmi-nov5-2016

The Singapore Manufacturing PMI decreased slightly to 50 in October of 2016 from 50.1 in the previous month. A weaker reading was attributed to slower overall factory output and lower employment, though domestic and export orders logged marginal improvements. Meanwhile, the electronics sector rose to 50.8 from 50.3 in September. Manufacturing PMI in Singapore averaged 50.03 from 2012 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 51.90 in October of 2014 and a record low of 48.30 in October of 2012. Manufacturing PMI in Singapore is reported by the Singapore Institute of Purchasing & Materials Management, SIPMM.

singapore-gdp-growth-rate-nov5-2016

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Singapore contracted 4.10 percent in the third quarter of 2016 over the previous quarter. GDP Growth Rate in Singapore averaged 6.81 percent from 1975 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 37.20 percent in the first quarter of 2010 and a record low of -13.50 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008. GDP Growth Rate in Singapore is reported by the Statistics Singapore.

 

Singapore REITs in general is slightly under value after the recent sell off when approaching the US Presidential Election and potential interest rate hike in Dec 2016. Distribution yield for some Singapore REITs with bigger market capitalization is not very attractive. However, there are still opportunities in Singapore REITs with smaller market capitalization. Opportunities present in Hospitality sector as the valuation and yield is attractive but future DPU growth does not have good visibility.

Technically Singapore REITs sector is in bearish territory after breaking down the 200D SMA support. There is little visibility on what is the next movement for Singapore REIT until the US Presidential Election is over and whether US Fed will increase interest rate in Dec 2016.  At the moment, the Singapore REIT Index has higher probability to move side way or down.

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Weekly Inter Market Analysis Nov 6-2016

See previous week Weekly Inter Market Analysis.

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SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF)

SPY has broken the resistance turned support zone. Currently SPY is testing the 200D SMA support. Keep an eye this coming week (also the US Presidential Election week) to see whether this 200D SMA support hold.

  • Resistance turned support zone: 211-213 Broken
  • Rising Wedge immediate support: about 210 Broken
  • 200D SMA support: about 208.5 Testing
  • Previous Head and Shoulders neckline support: about 204.

spy-nov-6-2016

VIX

VIX spiked to 22.5 when getting nearer to US Presidential Election day. Stock market is expected to sell down if Donald Trump wins.

vix-nov-6-2016

 

Sector Performance (SPDR Sector ETF)

  • Best Sectors: None
  • Worst Sector: Technology (XLK)  -2.66%

sector-performance-nov-6-2016

SUDX (S&P US Dollar Futures Index)

SUDX is currently retracing back to the support around 127-128. If SUDX rebounds from this support zone, this breakout of symmetrical triangle is valid for SUDX to start a confirm uptrend.

sudx-nov-6-2016

FXE (Currency Shares Euro ETF)

FXE rebounded from the critical support (red zone) and is currently testing the previous wedge support turned resistance.

fxe-nov-6-2016

 

XLE (SPDR Energy Sector ETF)

XLE is currently testing the up trend channel support. Keep an eye on the current support and 200D SMA support.  Coincidentally USO is also trading the support level.

xle-nov-6-2016

 

USO (United States Oil Fund)

USO is currently testing the critical horizontal support and also the symmetrical triangle support. A pause of the recent sell down for USO after forming a long legged doji candlestick pattern. Wait for bullish candle for reversal confirmation rebound from this support level.

uso-nov-6-2016

 

TLT (iShares 20+ Years Treasury Bond ETF)

TLT is currently trading below 200D SMA and forming a Falling Wedge. Technically TLT is trading in a bearish down trend. This means there is a sell off in Treasury Bond. Something for the investors to pay special attention to because it is not normal for both Treasury Bill and Equity sell off together.

tlt-nov-6-2016

 

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares)

GLD rebounded from the 200D SMA support but is currently facing the previous support turned resistance at about 125. GLD has to clear this 125 resistance in order to continue the long term new up trend.

gld-nov-6-2016

 

Next Week Economic Calendar

Key events:

  • US Presidential Election Nov 9 (Wednesday)
  • Crude Oil Inventory on Nov 10 (Wednesday)
  • US Unemployment Claim  on Nov 10 (Thursday)

economic-calendar-nov-6-nov-12-2016

 

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Good News in Singapore if you are Holding Aussie Dollar

AUD / SGD has started an up trend after finding a bottom at 0.98282. There are a lot of rooms for AUD to move up against SGD.

  • Good news if you are holding Aussie Dollar.
  • Good news if you are holding any investment in Australia.
  • Bad news if you have children study in Australia.
  • Bad news if you want to travel to Australia for holiday.

aud-sgd-nov-5-2016

The AUD/SGD trend reversal may be telling something:

  • Commodity has bottomed up
  • China economy has bottomed up and recovering. China Manufacturing PMI is on expansion mode now and the trend is up.

 


source: tradingeconomics.com

Summary: Opportunities for investment if you know how to spot them!

 

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