Weekly Inter Market Analysis Nov 12-2016

See previous week Weekly Inter Market Analysis.

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com

SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF)

SPY rebounded from the 200D SMA support strongly after Donald Trump won the US Presidential Election. The strong caught everyone by surprise! SPY is technically bullish but currently facing the resistance at 217.

  • Resistance turned support zone: 211-213.
  • Rising Wedge immediate support: about 210.
  • 200D SMA support: about 209

spy-nov13-2016

 

VIX

VIX spiked to 22.5 but immediately falled below 15 after Donald Trump is elected as US President.

vix-nov-13-2016

 

Sector Performance (SPDR Sector ETF)

  • Best Sectors: Financial (XLF & XLFS) > 11% respectively, followed by Industrial (XLI) +8.11%
  • Worst Sector: Utilities (XLU)  -4.00% and Consumer Staples (XLP) -2.07%
  • Comment: This is RISK ON combination of aggressive sectors like Financial & Industrial show bullishness but defensive sectors like Utilities and Consumer Staples are lagging.

sector-performance-nov-13-2016

 

SUDX (S&P US Dollar Futures Index)

SUDX is currently rebounded from the support around 127-128 and currently trading in an uptrend channel. US Dollar Index is on uptrend mode.

sudx-nov13-2016

 

FXE (Currency Shares Euro ETF)

FXE sold off after reaching the previous wedge support turned resistance. Currently FXE is testing an important support zone. Watch for rebound else sell off continues.

fxee-nov-13-2016

 

XLE (SPDR Energy Sector ETF)

Although XLE is still trading within the up trend channel, XLE is forming a multiple tops. Keep an eye on the current channel support and 200D SMA support. Breaking these supports will turn XLE into bearish mode.

xle-nov-13-2016

 

 

USO (United States Oil Fund)

USO is still testing the critical horizontal support and also the symmetrical triangle support. Wait for bullish candle for reversal confirmation rebound from this support level. The next support is at $9.00 if the current support is broken.

uso-nov-13-2016

 

TLT (iShares 20+ Years Treasury Bond ETF)

TLT broke down from a Falling Wedge. Huge sell off in Treasury Bond continues.

Read what is happening here:

Bond funds lost $18 billion in value during this week’s Trump-inspired selloff

Now Equity and Bond is the “normal” inversion relationship again. Equity rallies, bond sells off –> This is a RISK ON scenario.

tlt-nov-13-2016

bond-sell-off-nov13-2016

 

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares)

GLD broke the support at 120 and heading towards the next critical support at 115 (50% Fibonacci Retracement Level). GLD is technically bearish and trading below 200D SMA. Watch the turning sign of 200D SMA slop.

gld-nov-13-2016

 

Next Week Economic Calendar

Key events:

  • ECB President Draghi speaks on Nov 15 (Tuesday)
  • Crude Oil Inventory on Nov 17 (Thursday)
  • US Unemployment Claim  on Nov 17 (Thursday)
  • Fed Chair Yellen Testifies on Nov 18 (Friday)
  • ECB President Draghi speaks on Nov 18 (Friday)

economic-calendar-nov12-nov19-2016

See upcoming Events here. http://mystocksinvesting.com/events/

 

 

 

 

 

Singapore REIT Stock Shortlisting Bubble Charts November 2016

Bubble chart derived from Nov 5, 2016 Singapore REITs Fundamental Comparison Table. There are no significant changes compare to previous Singapore REIT Bubble Chart. Those small cap Singapore REITs with > 8% distribution yield are Sabana Reit (M1GU), AIMSAMP Cap Reit (O5RU), Viva Ind Tr (T8B), Lippo Malls Tr (D5IU), BHG Retail Reit (BMGU), Croesus RTrust (S6NU), SoilbuildBizReit (SV3U)  $IREIT Global(UD1U) and RHT HealthTrust(RF1U)

These Bubble Charts are used to show the “relative” position compare to other Singapore REITs.

Two visual bubble charts to pick and avoid:

  1. Undervalue Singapore REITs with High Distribution Yield** (Value Pick)
  2. Overvalue Singapore REITs with High Gearing Ratio (Risk Avoidance)

singapore-reit-bubble-chart-value-nov9-2016singapore-reit-bubble-chart-risk-nov9-2016

** Distribution Yield are lagging.

Original Post from http://mystocksinvesting.com

Disclaimer: The analysis is for Author own use and NOT to be used as Buy / Sell recommendation. Get a proper training on “How to use this Singapore REIT Bubble Charts?” here.

 

Singapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table – 5 November 2016

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) decreases from 764.77 to 730.39 (-4.49%) compare to last post on Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Oct 9, 2016. The index has broken the 200D SMA support and this is a bearish signal. However, 200D SMA is still trending up.  We need to see whether this REIT index can move above the 200D SMA again in the coming weeks else Singapore REIT sector will reverse to down trend.  SGX S-REIT (REIT.SI) Index decreases from 1176.60 to 1125.83 (-4.31%).

ftse-st-reit-index-nov5-2016ftse-st-reit-index-6m-nov5-2016

  • Price/NAV decreases from  1.012 to 0.969 (Singapore Overall REIT sector is slightly under value now) after recent sell off.
  • Distribution Yield increases from 6.87% to 7.07% (take note that this is lagging number). More than half of Singapore REITs (20 out of 39) have Distribution Yield > 7%. High yield REITs mainly from Hospitality Trust and small cap Industrial REIT. Selection of Singapore REITs have become much more important now because not all the high yield REITs has strong fundamental.
  • Gearing Ratio increases from 34.44% to 35.15%.  25 out of 39 have Gearing Ratio more than 35%.
  • Most overvalue is Ascendas iTrust (Price/NAV = 1.692), followed by Parkway Life (Price/NAV = 1.524) and Keppel DC REIT (Price/NAV = 1.36)
  • Most undervalue (base on NAV) is Far East HTrust (Price/NAV = 0.645), followed by Sabana REIT (Price/NAV = 0.652) and BHG Retait REIT (Price/NAV = 0.713).
  • Highest Distribution Yield is Viva Industrial Trust (9.54%), followed by Sabana REIT (9.26%) and BHG Retail REIT (8.99%).
  • Highest Gearing Ratio is Croesus Retail Trust (45.3%), iREIT Global (41.8%), Sabana REIT (41.5%), Cache Logistic Trust (41.2%), Ascott REIT (41.0%) and OUE Commercial REIT (40.8%)

singapore-reit-fundamental-analysis-and-comparison-table-6-nov-2016sinapore-reit-price-nav-chart-nov-6-2016

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. To learn how to use the table and make investing decision, Sign up next REIT Investing Seminar here to learn how to choose a fundamentally strong REIT for long term investing for passive income generation.

 

  • Singapore Interest Rate decreases from 0.38% to 0.12

singapore-interest-rate-nov5-2016

singapore-sibor-nov5-2016

  • 1 month increases from 0.62233% to 0.62417%
  • 3 month remains at 0.87242%
  • 6 month increases from 14421% to 1.14530%
  • 12 month increases from 1.31183% to 1.31225%

singapore-manufacturing-pmi-nov5-2016

The Singapore Manufacturing PMI decreased slightly to 50 in October of 2016 from 50.1 in the previous month. A weaker reading was attributed to slower overall factory output and lower employment, though domestic and export orders logged marginal improvements. Meanwhile, the electronics sector rose to 50.8 from 50.3 in September. Manufacturing PMI in Singapore averaged 50.03 from 2012 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 51.90 in October of 2014 and a record low of 48.30 in October of 2012. Manufacturing PMI in Singapore is reported by the Singapore Institute of Purchasing & Materials Management, SIPMM.

singapore-gdp-growth-rate-nov5-2016

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Singapore contracted 4.10 percent in the third quarter of 2016 over the previous quarter. GDP Growth Rate in Singapore averaged 6.81 percent from 1975 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 37.20 percent in the first quarter of 2010 and a record low of -13.50 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008. GDP Growth Rate in Singapore is reported by the Statistics Singapore.

 

Singapore REITs in general is slightly under value after the recent sell off when approaching the US Presidential Election and potential interest rate hike in Dec 2016. Distribution yield for some Singapore REITs with bigger market capitalization is not very attractive. However, there are still opportunities in Singapore REITs with smaller market capitalization. Opportunities present in Hospitality sector as the valuation and yield is attractive but future DPU growth does not have good visibility.

Technically Singapore REITs sector is in bearish territory after breaking down the 200D SMA support. There is little visibility on what is the next movement for Singapore REIT until the US Presidential Election is over and whether US Fed will increase interest rate in Dec 2016.  At the moment, the Singapore REIT Index has higher probability to move side way or down.

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com

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