Caveat Emptor for Investors: Signs of Increasing Stress Emerge

By Sani Hamid

 

The present investing environment is not an easy one to decipher.  On one hand equity markets seem to be finding their footing after a rocky start early this year with markets in the U.S. are hitting historical highs, for instance. On the other hand, moving in tandem we have the bond market continuing to attract large inflows even as yields move to historical lows and with a growing number of bonds yielding negative interest rates.

And then there is the world economy, which is generally a mixed bag – China is showing signs of stabilisation, the US has seen a series of patchy data, none of which convincing enough to call for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve; and in aggregate the global economy seems to be mired in this slow grinding growth which it is unable to come out of despite the many efforts of central banks and governments.

So what is exactly happening in the markets? Why are equity markets like that of the U.S. rising amid a slow growth environment and amid a risk-off environment as suggested by the bond market? In our view, the answer lies in the excessive liquidity that is found in the global financial system today.

Chart 1: Global financial system awash with liquidity 

Source: FA Wealth Management

The fact of the matter is that the global financial system is awash with liquidity courtesy of the central banks of developed countries (namely the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan) plus some developing countries (Peoples Bank of China).  Chart 1 shows the multiples of which these central banks have increased their money supply vis-à-vis prior to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). As we can see the U.S. has done so the most with its multiple Quantitative Easing – the Fed has injected about 5 times more of liquidity than prior to GFC. While the Fed has official stopped its QE program, others such as the BOJ, ECB and PBOC have not. And to add to this, not only did the authorities flood the system with a tsunami of liquidity, they ensured that it came at a cheap price, in an effort to spur the usage and thus economy. Chart 2 shows that for many developed countries, their interest rates have declined sharply and are near zero and in a growing number of cases, negative.

Chart 2: Abundant money came very cheap

As mentioned, the key idea behind flooding the global system with cheap liquidity is to spur consumption and thus, the economy overall – or at least that was the idea on paper. In reality, this worked for a while as money did spur consumption as economic units (households, corporations, governments, financial institutions) that were left unscaled by the GFC did indeed use the cheap excess liquidity to raise their consumption. However, this mainly came in the form of leveraged borrowing to buy financial assets such as bonds, real estate and to a smaller extend equities. Overall, two major consequences surfaced as a result of this (which many in fact deem as a mis-allocation of resources).

Firstly, this had the impact of pushing the prices of certain assets into overbought and for some, into bubble territory. For example, in terms of real estate, this is true for a few cities like London and Hong Kong which has been identified by UBS’ Global Real Estate Bubble Index (see Diagram 1). There is also reason to believe that the bond market is also grossly overbought especially G7 government papers and those with longer maturities (as these have higher yields).

Diagram 1: Property prices generally overvalued in major cities

Secondly, this had the effect of quickly bloating both the asset and liabilities of households. For a while, aggregate Net Worth (asset minus liquidity) rose as asset valuation rose faster than liabilities. But that has halted as we have clearly entered a stage whereby the assets side of households can no longer expand due to excessive liabilities (see Diagram 2) and as such, deleveraging is now taking place.

Diagram 2: Excessive household debt

Source: FT

The effect of this deleveraging is quite obvious: growth is not being generated because deleveraging does not result in consumption. As such, it comes as no surprise that the world economy itself has been such low growth for the past few years (see Diagram 3 which has been extracted from the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook) and is expected to continue to be mired in this slow and low growth environment for the next 12-24 months as households (and even .  We call this a “muggy economic environment” – one which is uncomfortable and irritatingly slow and low in nature.

Diagram 3: IMF points out how growth has been “too slow for too long”

Source: IMF. FA Wealth Management

In a January 2010 article, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), had at that time suggested that the global deleveraging process may just be getting under way and is likely to exert a significant drag on GDP growth. Fast forward to today, it’s hard to say whether deleveraging has already started because central banks had continued to aggressively force feed the global economy with monetary stimulus throughout 2010 to present, resulting in more debt being taken on. Data that we have indicate that up until 2014, key economic units have further increased their total debt stock to 286% of GDP (see Diagram 4).

Diagram 4: The world had taken on more debt since the GFC

As such we can only warrant a guess as to whether we have reached or even moved into a deleveraging cycle.  The evidence at hand does suggest we may have just entered into such a cycle.  Interestingly, the MGI report provided a diagram to show the impact of deleveraging on GDP growth. The diagram shows three distinct periods: The early years where an economic downturn begins but leverage continues to increase; a middle years where the growth downturn continues and deleveraging starts; a final years where we see an economic rebound despite a continuation of the deleveraging (Diagram 5).

Diagram 5: Entering stage 2 of the deleveraging cycle

Source: IMF, McKinsey Global Institute

We believe that the world maybe somewhere near the red dot we had inserted in Diagram 5.  This is based on the fact we have seen sluggish growth in recent years as explained in the earlier paragraphs. While latest data on debt is hard to come by, anecdotal evidence from the ground – financial institutions cutting back on financing; worries over job security; large and frequent corporate layoffs – all suggest that we are likely to have moved into a deleveraging mode.

The Future in a Deleveraging Environment

So what does this suggest for the future? In our view, we will likely see a GDP slowdown in the next 12-24 months together declining debt levels as we enter the second and most aggressive part of the deleveraging cycle. For financial markets which are so used to being buoyed by leverage, the combination of both deleveraging and an deceleration in economic growth, is likely to put them under pressure, especially those which have benefited from the combination of these two factors prior to this.  In essence, this deleveraging cycle will likely add to the stresses that have already emerged in recent years from the misallocation of resources (read as “massive liquidity”). We term these stresses “land mines” and the trillion dollar question is whether some of these stresses will buckle under the weight of deleveraging and result in a systemic event.

If we were to pick the two biggest stresses we see today that could potentially turn into a systemic event, these would be firstly, potential losses on the bond market and secondly, a sharp pull-back in the S&P500.

Risk #1: The bond market

Bond King Bill Gross’ tweet on June 9, 2016, was much talked about as it was a timely reminder to the market on just how much money is vested into negative interest rate bonds of which Mr Gross warns of a supernova that will explode one day. Estimates put the total bond market somewhere between $110 to $125 trillion and while we now know that about 10% are on end of the scale (negative interest rates), we will not be surprised if on the other end (long-dated bonds) the concentration is multiple times higher (60-80%). This is especially so in the present environment of low interest rates where droves of investors have sought to eke out yields by moving further out the yield curve (for example the U.S. 1-year rate is 0.55% versus 30-year bond which yields 2.23% as of August 10, 2016).

However, this concentration in the long-end of the curve has also raised a huge red flag over the potential impact from rising interest rates: the longer the duration of the bond, the bigger the impact from a rise in interest rates. In fact, Morgan Stanley estimates that a 100 bp rise in interest rates would wipe off US$1 trillion off the value of bonds, a number which exceeds the losses from the mortgage backed bonds during the GFC.  If we interpolate this and assume a 25bp hike (typical move by the Fed), this would translate roughly into a US$250 bln loss which someone has to bear.

The question is whether such a loss will result in a systemic risk, for example, if it results in huge losses that negative impact certain segments of the financial industry. While bond markets are typically quite deep, the exit will be seemingly very small when a panic does ensure given the size of the participants presently. And add to the fact liquidity can dry up almost immediately in today’s environment, we believe that investors need to keep a watchful eye on the bond market. The present lack of alternatives means there are very few places that investors can seek shelter from and as such, the bond market is the destination of choice for many. There are certain segments such as short-duration bonds and to an extent oversold Emerging Market debt which look reasonably ok at this point. But as mentioned, we remain vigilant and suggest having both eyes on any signs of cracks here.

Risk #2: The S&P500

With the U.S. indices hitting record highs, many would find it strange that we see it as a risk and not a reinforced belief that the U.S. equity markets remain the most attractive among the lot (Emerging Markets, Europe or Japan). The reason for our scepticism is again the fact we believe it is excess liquidity which is buoying the U.S. markets and not fundamentals. U.S. data remain patchy, with strong months alternating with weak months but the overall trend does suggest to us a weaker trajectory. For example, the much looked at non-farm payrolls had in July impressed and resulted in a strong rally on Wall Street. But the fact remains that on average numbers have been in lower in the first six months of 2016 than in any half-year since the second half of 2012 (see Chart 3).

Chart 3: Non-Farm Payroll is lower on average

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; FA Wealth Management

To us, the excess liquidity is making its way into the U.S. markets given the T.I.N.A. situation (“There Is No Alternative”) which also causes anomalies in other asset classes such as the negative interest rates in the bond market and stubbornly overvalued property prices in many parts of the world (especially where rental yields cannot fundamentally justify such prices).  For the S&P500 for instance, the divergence between profitability growth and the index itself (Chart 4), which traditionally held a close correlation, is suggesting an adjustment will have to come sooner or later. We believe that “price” (the index) will have to adjust to earnings given that the latter will find it hard to improve under the present economic environment.  While a 20% drop in the S&P500 is merely a correction in our view, it is the uncertainties surrounding how it will impact other markets and fundamentals (for example, negatively impact already weak consumer confidence further) that cause us to worry.

Chart 4: Diverging paths for profitability and price on the S&P500

Source: Alhambra Investment Partners; FA Wealth Management

In summary, we believe that we have entered into a phase where investors need to tread very are carefully. To our knowledge, no one has successfully created a model to repeatedly predict financial crisis because of the fact that every crisis is different. But what economists generally agree upon is that crisis emanate from the adjustment of excesses or a divergence from fundamentals. Today, we are seeing those excesses or divergence in certain asset classes. No one knows the exact timing of when these adjustments will occur but what we can do is be prepared.

Sani Hamid is a Director at FA Advisory Sdn Bhd. An economist, he oversees the asset allocation strategies for the company’s clients. He has more than 20 years of working experience, having worked for companies such as BNP Peregrine Securities as a Senior Economist and Standard & Poor’s Ratings as a Director in the Sovereign team. In addition, he holds a Masters in Social Sciences (Applied Economics) from the National University of Singapore and is a CFP designate.

Global Stock Market Indices PE Ratio At a Glance (14 August 2016)

Market Indices PE Ratio for Major Stock Exchange globally

  • US: Dow Jones Industrial, S&P500, NASDAQ, Russell 2000
  • Europe: FTSE100, CAC40, DAX
  • Asia: KLCI, STI, HangSeng, ASX200, CSI 300, JCI, SET, KOSPI, NIKKEI 225, SENSEX, TWSE, NZX50, PSEi
  • Best Performer: Germany DAX up for 6.42% with PE Ratio of 24.34
  • Valuation of Global Stock Market is NOT cheap base on PE Ratio. Simple Average PE Ratio increases from 22.25 to 23.33Global Stock Market PE Ratio Summary Aug14-2016
  •  PE  = Price Per Earning

See July 2016 Global Stock Market PE Ratio here.

Shiller SNP500 PE Ratio Aug14-2016

Stock Market PB Ratio

Stock Market PB Ratio Aug-2016

  • PB = Price to Book

US Stock Market Indices at historical high.

$INDU Aug14-2016 $SPX Aug14-2016$COMPQ Aug14-2016 $RUT Aug14-2016

The down side risk is getting higher and higher every day with over valuation and index keeps breaking new high.

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com

An In-depth Overview of Singapore’s Market for Foreign Investors

Author: Luis Aureliano

In 2015, it was reported that Singapore investors spent a record $26.3B on buying overseas properties – an indication that Singapore has a wide pool of investment-conscious individuals with deep pockets. However, the number for Singaporean dollars making their ways to foreign investment opportunities is only a minute fraction of the money that Singaporeans spend on local investments.

Singapore

Interestingly, the amount of Singaporean dollars that flows into foreign lands pales in comparison to the amount of direct foreign investments in Singapore. A large number of overseas investors have found an incredible opportunity in Singapore. This article seeks to provide the discerning investor with an objective outlook on what foreign investors can expect from the Singaporean economy.

An overview of Singapore’s stock market

Singapore boasts one of the most attractive financial and trade sectors in the global community. The country’s financial market is called Singapore Exchange Limited with a market cap of more than SGD902.425 billion ($8.19B). Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia (CLSA) has forecasted that Singapore is on track to supplant the Swiss banking industry as a destination financial center by 2025. Singapore financial market enjoys the benefits of a strategic location that makes it an ideal hub for more than 4 billion people who can jet in within a 7- hour flight radius.

Singapore’s financial markets have also enjoyed a reputation for transparency and accountability because the government has zero tolerance for corruption. In fact, there are reports that more than 7,000 multinational firms from the U.S. and E.U. and Japan have set up shop in Singapore. More so, about 3,000 firms China and India have a presence in Singapore. Hence, if you want to invest in Singapore’s stock market, you can be sure that you’ll encounter the stocks and ETFs of familiar companies.

 Ychart1

Singapore Exchange has outperformed other Asian markets in the year-to-date period as shown on the chart above. However, Singapore Exchange has largely underperformed the U.S. and EU markets as shown the chart below.

Ychart2

An overview of Singapore’s real estate market

Singapore has a developed real estate market built by one of the world’s richest populations. It is no longer news that Singapore has the third highest per capita income in the world; hence, many Singaporeans have much easier access to financing for real estate investments.

More so, Singapore has one of the lowest employment rates in the world and it has the largest concentration of millionaires in any one country. In addition, the country offers a low property tax rate and an advanced infrastructure that makes it easy to do business with individuals, corporate bodies, or the government.

Nevertheless, Singapore’s real estate market has suffered a massive downturn in recent years. Many reasons have been advanced for the weakness in Singapore’s housing market and the country’s Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) has provided data on the weakness in the housing market.

The URA observes that private residential property index fell by 0.6% in Q2 2016 to mark the ninth straight quarter of declines. More so, the URA noted that the prices of residential properties fell by 0.4% during the quarter and price of high-end, non-landed homes fell slightly by 1.4% quarter over quarter in Q1 2016.

The currently depressed nature of the Singaporean real estate market might provide investors with a remarkable opportunity to buy prime properties in great locations at a discount. For instance, buyers are snapping up well-positioned projects and foreign developers are buying up new sites aggressively. The URA reported a sharp increase in the number of private housing units that developers launched and sold in the second quarter as shown in the chart below.

Real Estate1

However, it is important that you conduct your due diligence and not buy a piece of Singapore’s real estate with misplaced expectations. You should be ready to buy Singapore real estate with a medium to long-term view in mind.

Is this a good time to invest in Singapore?

Foreign investors should be pleased to know that this is a good time to invest in Singapore’s market because of the latent opportunities in Singapore’s economy. However, foreign investors might want to make a strategic entry because Singapore Dollar has strong bullish trend in relation to other currencies. Investors who want to move investment funds to a bank account in Singapore need to understand that Singapore Dollar tends to soar when bad news hits the west.

When the news of the Brexit in which the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU broke, the Singapore dollar found strength against other major global currencies. For instance, the Singapore Dollar made sharp gains against 11 out of 16 major peers – in fact, the Singapore Dollar advanced 14% against the Pound (GBP) after the Brexit vote was cast.

usd sgd

The chart above shows how the Singapore Dollar has traded in relation to United States Dollar in the last one month. The forex gains were strong and impressive and the Monetary Authority of Singapore had to adopt a monetary easing policy. Nonetheless, the Singapore Dollar is still waxing strong and it rose to a one-month high against the dollar in August. On August 1, the Singapore dollar rose to more than a 1-month high of 1.3372 against the USD from an early low of 1.3430. At July 31 close, the Singapore dollar was trading at 1.3387 against the dollar.

Given the strong bullish trends in the Singapore Dollar, foreign investors might want to wait until the currency has a pullback before they move their funds into Singapore. However, you should not forget that Singapore’s economy is healthy and its currency soars when there is bad news in the west; hence, a sustained gloomy outlook in the economy of the west might keep the bullish flames of the Singapore dollar alive.

Nonetheless, foreign investors should note that Singapore’s economy is closely linked to the Chinese economy; hence, economic weakness in China might trigger weakness in Singapore. Smart investors will do well to use economic indicators coming out of the U.S., EU, and China as pointers on the timing for investing in Singapore’s financial or real estate market.