Ascendas REIT: Entry Planning

Base on the latest Earning Result of Ascendas REIT on Jan 22, 2016.

  • Last Done Price = $2.17
  • Market Cap = $5.575 B
  • NAV = $2.06
  • Price /  NAV = 1.05 (5% Premium)
  • Price / NAV (High) = 1.55
  • Price / NAV (Low) = 1.06
  • Distribution Yield = 7.22%
  • Gearing Ratio = 37.3%
  • WADM = 3.5 Years
  • WALE = 3.7 Years
  • Occupancy Rate = 89.2% (Singapore) 89.0% (Australia), 86.8% (China)

Ascendas REIT Yield and NAV Simulation

See last Fundamental Analysis of Ascendas REIT here.

Technically Ascendas REIT is just sitting on the Resistance Turned Support at about $2.12 which is also the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level.

Ascendas REIT Jan24-2016

Check out How to Select the Right REIT for Passive Income Investing and Learn When and How to Buy REIT at the Right Price and Right Time.

Ascendas REIT Fundamental and Technical Analysis

 

Ascendas REIT Fundamental Analysis base on April, 2015 Quarterly Earning Presentation.

  • Last Done Price = $2.44
  • Market Cap = $5.87 B
  • NAV = $2.08
  • Price /  NAV = 1.17 (17% Premium)
  • Price /  NAV (High) = 1.55
  • Price /  NAV (Low) = 1.07
  • Distribution Yield = 6.0%
  • Gearing Ratio = 33.5%
  • WADB = 3.6 Years
  • WALE = 3.8 Years
  • Occupancy Rate = 87.7%

Ascendas REIT DPU Growth June25-2015Ascendas REIT Portfolio June25-2015Ascendas REIT Diversification June25-2015 Ascendas REIT Tenant Diversification June25-2015 Ascendas REIT Top 10 Tenants June25-2015Ascendas REIT WADM June25-2015 Ascendas REIT WALE June25-2015 Ascendas REIT WALE1 June25-2015

 

Ascendas REIT Technical Analysis

2015June25-Ascendasreit-800x600

 

Ascendas REIT is just sitting on the 200D SMA support after dropped about 12% from the recent high. Take note that Ascendas REIT is forming a Head and Shoulders chart pattern.  Breaking the 200D SMA  support at $2.415 and neckline at $2.375 will send the stock price lower with price target of $2.08.

 

Summary

Ascendas REIT has a good fundamental and well diversified portfolio and tenant base. Currently Ascendas REIT is over value base on NAV. Technically I don’t like the chart (Head and Shoulders) amidst coming interest rate hike. So it is better to play safe now because there is opportunity to pick up this fundamental strong REIT at a lower price.

Find out how to conduct Fundamental Analysis of Singapore REIT using Quantitative and Qualitative methods, combining with Simple Technical Analysis to improve your Investment Decision.

Why Most Investors Lose Money in Real Estate and Property Stocks in 2013?

In general, your portfolio should have a lot of red (if you are still holding now) if you have invested in any property stocks (Capitaland, Keppel Land, City Development, UOL, etc) and REITs but did not hedge your portfolio with CFD.

So A-million dollar questions to most of the investors or traders in Singapore including myself:

  1. Is it the right time to pick up property stocks or REITs since the stock price has dropped so much?
  2. What should I do if I am still holding those property stocks and REITs? Should I cut loss or hold on and wait for the recovery?
  3. Is there any trading opportunity in property stocks?

Fundamentally the real estate / property sectors are hit by all the cooling measures and fear of interest hike due to QE tapering. I will not touch on the above 2 topics as there are already a lot of news and articles talking the impact to the property sectors in Singapore. I will be focusing in using technical analysis to analyse the overall trend for property sectors as a whole and individual stocks.

FTSE ST Real Estate Index

The index is trading in a Elliott Wave pattern and there is a possibility to start a Big Wave C down if break down from the Falling Wedge.

FTSE ST Real Estate Index Jan23-2014

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trust Index

Singapore REITs is officially enter into bear trend after dropping more than 20% from the top.

The chart pattern is similar to FTSE ST Real Estate Index (Elliott Wave + Falling Wedge). More selling of the REIT is the support (about 690) of Falling wedge is broken.

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trust Index Jan23-2014

FTSE ST Real Estate Index Components Stocks

FTSE ST Real Estate Top 10 Companies Dec-2013

Fundamental Comparison for Key Component Stocks and Property Stocks

Property Stocks Fundamental Comparison Jan23-2014

Fundamental Comparison for Singapore REITs

Hong Kong Land – Down Trend

HK Land Sept14-2013

Global Logistic Properties (GLP) – Up Trend

2014Jan23-GLOBAL LOGISTIC PROP LIMITED-800x600

Capitaland – Break out from Descending Triangle. Continue Down Trend.

2014Jan23-Capitaland-800x600

City Development – Break out from Descending Triangle. Continue Down Trend.

2014Jan23-CITYDEV-800x600

UOL Limited – Trading in a Falling Wedge.

UOL Jan23-2014

CapitaMall Trust – In consolidation.

2014Jan23-CapitaMall-800x600

Ascendas REIT – Consolidation in Rectangle. Range Bound.

2014Jan23-Ascendasreit-800x600

Suntec REIT – In consolidation.

2014Jan23 SuntecReit-800x600

CapitaCommercial Trust – In consolidation.

2014Jan23-CapitaComm-800x600

Summary

Most of the property stocks and REITs either trading on down trend on in consolidation. Take note that the stocks are trading below 200D SMA (long term trend) which is sloping down (bearish signal). Base on the charts, this property and Real Estate sector have not found the bottom yet and probably will continue trading in a down trend in 2014. Bad news for investors who are still holding the stocks but good news for traders who know how to short the stock market. It will be a while for those smart investors who want undervalue stocks (Hong Kong Land, Capitaland, UOL, Keppel Land) to buy at bottom but need to keep a close eye on the chart.