Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rides on semiconductor growth in 2010

Semicondutor industry is a cyclical industry. It is forecasted this industry will grow at a minimum of 10% in 2010. Recent semiconductor industry reviews:

  • Global semiconductor revenue could grow about 10 percent next year after two years of declines, as new computers and feature-jammed smartphones help boost chip demand – Gartner
  • Global pure-play semiconductor foundry revenue will decline about 11% in 2009, but then increase 21% in 2010 – iSuppli
  • The chip sector has been struggling over the last few years as the global economy, oversupply, and price pressures have stalled sales. But as the oversupply and under-demand cycle has stabilized, sales have improved, according to recent reports from the Semiconductor Industry Association.
SMH is the Semiconductor HOLDRs trust ETF and its top ten holding as follow:

SMH broke the long term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance of $24.763 and this level had become a very strong support level.
SMH is currently testing its another strong resistance at $26.24. If SMH can stay above this resistance turned support level, the uptrend is confirmed. Otherwise, it may retrace back to $21.809. SMH has not retraced back to this 61.8% Fibonacci level yet to build the base for future up trend. SMH is currently above 20D, 50D and 200D MA.