United States Oil Fund (USO): Short Term Rebound from Support

United States Oil Fund (USO) rebounded from the $9.50 support.

The medium trend is down as USO has formed a “Lower High, Lower Low” down trend channel (in green). Long term trend USO is trading side way between $9.50 to $12.00.

USO has to stay above $10.00 for successful short term rebound. If $10.00 become the resistance and $9.50 support is broken, more downside expected for USO.

 

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com

 

Singapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table – 7 May 2017

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increases from 762.19 to 766.21 (+0.53%) ( compare to last post on Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on April 8, 2017. The index has broken 200D SMA resistance at about 740 and also but broke the declining resistance at 760. Also take note that all three simple moving averages are trending upward for the REIT index. Next resistance at 780.
Base on chart patterns (breakout from Double Bottoms and form Bull Flags), FTSE ST REIT Index should take a breather now trading within a consolidation range between 760-780.  SGX S-REIT (REIT.SI) Index increases from 1,172.85 to 1180.04 (+0.61%).

 

Update for this month Singapore REITs Table.

  • Data pulled from https://app.yieldsavvy.com/
  • Include Sector classification.
  • Remove 52 weeks high and low.
  • Remove stock code.
  • Remove Croesus Retail Trust, Religare Health Trust, Ascendas iTrust as these 3 are not REIT.

  • Price/NAV at 0.99  (Singapore Overall REIT sector is at fair value now).
  • Distribution Yield at 6.83% (take note that this is lagging number). More than half of Singapore REITs (16 out of 37) have Distribution Yield > 7%. High yield REITs mainly from Hospitality Trust and small cap Industrial REIT, but we must understand the risks while chasing for the high yield. Check out How to spot those Fundamentally strong REIT with attractive yield to build up a Passive Income Portfolio?
  • Gearing Ratio at  35.10%.  22 out of 37 have Gearing Ratio more than 35%.
  • Most overvalue is Parkway Life (Price/NAV = 1.47), FIRST REIT (Price/NAV = 1.34) and Keppel DC REIT (Price/NAV = 1.31).
  • Most undervalue (base on NAV) is Sabana REIT (Price/NAV = 0.61), followed by  Far East HTrust (Price/NAV = 0.67), Fortune REIT (Price/NAV = 0.70) and Keppel REIT (Price/NAV = 0.73)
  • Highest Distribution Yield (TTM) is Sabana REIT (10.2%), followed by Viva Industrial Trust (8.97%), SoilBuild BizREIT (8.86%) and Cache Logistic Trust (8.46%). All 4 REITs are small cap from Industrial sector.
  • Highest Gearing Ratio is Sabana REIT (43.2%), followed by Cache Logistic Trust (43.1%) and iREIT Global (41.6%).

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. To learn how to use the table and make investing decision, Sign up next REIT Investing Seminar here to learn how to choose a fundamentally strong REIT for long term investing for passive income generation.

 

  • Singapore Interest Rate remain the same at  0.57%.

  • 1 month increases from 0.74833% to 0.80850%
  • 3 month increases from  0.94580% to 0.99925%
  • 6 month increases from 1.24700% to 1.25000%
  • 12 month increases from 1.38000% to 1.38125%

 

The Singapore Manufacturing PMI edged down to 51.1 in April of 2017 from a two-year high of 51.2 in the previous month. New orders, new exports orders, inventory, output, and employment rose at a slower pace. Also, stocks of finished goods shrank after logging seven months of expansion. Also, the PMI for electronics sector rose to 51.6 from 51.8 in March. Manufacturing PMI in Singapore averaged 50.03 from 2012 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 51.90 in October of 2014 and a record low of 48.30 in October of 2012.

 

The GDP in Singapore contracted an annualised 1.9 percent quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2017, compared to a 12.3 percent expansion in the fourth quarter of 2016 and in line with market expectations, advance estimates showed. It was the strongest contraction since the third quarter of 2012, mainly due to a decrease in manufacturing (-6.6 percent from 39.8 percent in Q4 of 2016), and services (-2.2 percent from 8.4 percent in Q4). GDP Growth Rate in Singapore averaged 6.82 percent from 1975 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 37.20 percent in the first quarter of 2010 and a record low of -13.50 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008.

 

 

Fundamentally the whole Singapore REITs is at its fair value in average. There are also sign of recovery in Office and Hospitality sectors where the quarterly DPU has started to increase again. See Office Sector Bubble Charts and Hospitality Sector Bubble Charts here.

Technically Singapore REITs is on bullish up trend and currently taking a pause. More upside is expected if 780 resistance is broken.

The Singapore REITs seem have fully priced in the 2 remaining rate hikes this year as investors are back to hunt for REITs with good fundamental.  As big cap REITs have moved a lot for past few months, expect small cap REITs to play  catch up in the coming months. There are still some value picks for  REITs with good fundamental but we have to be very selective.

If you want to know how to identify those REITs, check out the next Investing in Singapore REIT course here.

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com

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