China Zaino – Dropped out from the uptrend channel!

China Zaino closed at $0.285 with a bearish marubozu candle. It dropped out from the current uptrend channel and also broke the 20D MA support line. If China Zaino can move up in the next few days, a new channel line (with different gradient) has to be redrawn. Otherwise it will be the end of the uptrend and the stocks will move into consolidation phase.

StarHub – Fundamental & Intrinsic Value

Base on Q2, 2009 financial report:

  • PE = 11.9
  • Dividend Yield = 8.3%
  • NAV = $0.0723
  • Net Earning = 15.1% (14.6% in 2008)
  • Current Ratio = 0.5 (Telecommunication industry characteristic, SingTel current ratio is 0.7, M1 is 0.48)
  • ROA = 18.7% (Base on 2008 Full Year)
  • ROE = 288% (base on 2008 Full Year)
  • Cash Flow = S$237.2 Million   

Stock Background

  • 3 years historal high = $3.2
  • Current Price = $2.17 (only 68% of 3 years high)

Intrinsic Value Calculation

PE Model

 

  • Fair value PE = 15, intrinsic value= $2.73 (base on EPS $0.18186)
  • PEG = 1.03

DCF Model

 

  • Growth Rate = 15.26% (capped at 15%, from 2004A to 2008A)
  • Discount Rate = 5%
  • Number of Shares = 1,711.73 million
  • 2008A Net Operating Cash Flow = S$597.5 million, intrinsic value = $5.86

Discounted EPS Model

  • Growth Rate = 11.6% (From 2005A to 2008A)
  • Discount Rate = 5%
  • 2008A EPS = $0.18186
  • Intrinsic Value = $2.58

  Intrinsic Value for StarHub (the most conservative number of the three numbers) = $2.58 (Current price is 15.9% discount to the intrinsic value!)