Allgreen has a very strong resistance of $1.24 to break. If Allgreen fails the breakout in the next few days, it probably will retrace back to $0.90 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement).
Today Capitaland looks like having a breakout from a triangle. The stock price is also moving away from the 20D & 50D MA support line. MACD is showing bullish convergence again. Is Capitaland forming a Triple Tops first before reversing the trend? I will still continue to stay out of this stock because upside is limited as it has very strong resistance at $4.14. Downside probabality is much higher than upside probability, upside potential is only 7.8% (from $3.84 to $4.14) while downside is 16% ($3.84 to $3.22). $3.22 is next support level base on 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement.
Last Friday SPH closed at $3.70 and I started to regret that I exit the trade too early. I bought SPH at about $3.05 and sold all at $3.48. I should have hold the stocks for a longer period.
My mistakes from this trade:
- I let my emotion to take charge of my decision. I had worries that STI would soon be corrected and turned bearish in Sept. I can’t control my fear and decide to off load my positions.
- I did not look at the chart before making my decision to sell. I would not have sold my SPH shares if I plot the chart earlier. The stock price was moving inside the channel and on the up trend. I should have sold the shares when the price hit the upper channel resistance instead of sold at the dip!
- SPH is a defensive stock with low beta which response slower to the STI correction. In addition, investors will switch to defensive stocks when there is a market correction.
Fortunately I did not lose money in this trade but this was a really good lesson for me to perfect my entry and exit timing in future.