Weekly Inter Market Analysis Oct 9-2016

See previous week Weekly Inter Market Analysis.

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com


SPY is currently forming a symmetrical triangle in a big Rising Wedge pattern. Symmetrical Triangle is a consolidation pattern until breakout. Keep an eye on on key supports:

  • Resistance turned support zone: 211-213
  • Rising Wedge immediate support: about 210
  • Previous Head and Shoulders neckline support: about 204.
  • Rising Wedge next support: about 200




VIX still stays below 15 – a complacent zone.



Sector Performance (SPDR Sector ETF)

  • Best Sectors: Financials (XLF) +1.66%
  • Worst Sector: Real Estate (XLRE) – 5.28%



SUDX (S&P US Dollar Futures Index)

SUDX broke out from the Symmetrical Triangle but immediately rejected at the support turned resistance at about 129.04 with a shooting star. Still need to wait for the confirmation of the breakout. Next FOMC statement on Nov 1/2.



FXE (Currency Shares Euro ETF)

FXE is still trading sideway and range bound. Have to wait till next FOMC statement on Nov 1/2 before we can see the next big move.



XLE (SPDR Energy Sector ETF)

Uptrend channel redrawn. XLE moves above 69.31. Critical support at 64.74 which has been tested for 5 times.



USO (United States Oil Fund)

USO broke out from Symmetrical Triangle but immediately rejected at the strong resistance with a Hanging Man with confirmation. Expect bearish reversal in the coming week.



TLT (iShares 20+ Years Treasury Bond ETF)

TLT broke 137.51 support and currently just resting on the next support at 132.5 with a Doji, indicates a pause in the recent down trend. Very interesting to see the sell down in TLT when SPY is moving side way.



GLD (SPDR Gold Shares)

  • GLD broke down from the support with a gap down. GLD is currently testing a 200D SMA support. Can this 200D SMA support hold? Take note that 200D SMA is still trending up.
  • Fibonacci Retracement level redrawn for GLD. Currently GLD is also sitting on the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Support.
  • Expect GLD to rebound from level.



Next Week Economic Calendar

Key events:

  • FOMC Meeting Minutes on Oct 13 (Thursday)
  • Crude Oil Inventory on Oct 14 (Friday)
  • Janet Yellen speaks on Oct 15 (Saturday)


USO: Trading in an Up Trend Channel

USO continues its up trend in an uptrend channel. The US Oil ETF recently rebounded from the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level after showing a Bullish Kicker reversal candlestick. Current USO price at $11.66 is just above the 200D SMA of $11.65.

USO June 19-2016

  • Immediate resistance at $12.47
  • Immediate support at about $11.13 followed by $10.52
  • 20/40EMA, 20/50 SMA all trending up
  • Expect golden cross 50D/200D in next few trading days if USO stays above $11.13 support.

See previous USO chart and technical analysis here.

Is Gold bottoming up and starting an up trend?


Gold ETF (GLD) has recently broken the down trend resistance and trade about 20D/50D/200D SMA. These are the bullish signals that GLD may have found the bottom and reversed to an uptrend if GLD can stay above 115 and turn the down trend resistance to support.

GLD Feb13-2016

10 Years charts show GLD rebounded from 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level at about 100.

GLD 10 years Feb13-2016

Things to watch out for the confirmation of trend reversal:

  1. 200D SMA become the support.
  2. “Higher High, Higher Low” chart pattern formation.

So, standby to invest in Gold using Gold ETF (GLD) when there is a confirmation of uptrend. You can use CPF under CPFIS to invest in GLD.

SPDR Gold Shares offer investors an innovative, relatively cost efficient and secure way to access the gold market. SPDR Gold Shares are intended to offer investors a means of participating in the gold bullion market without the necessity of taking physical delivery of gold, and to buy and sell that interest through the trading of a security on a regulated stock exchange. The introduction of SPDR Gold Shares was intended to lower many of the barriers, such as access, custody, and transaction costs, that have prevented some investors from investing in gold.

SPDR Gold Shares represent fractional, undivided beneficial ownership interests in the Trust, the sole assets of which are gold bullion, and, from time to time, cash. SPDR Gold Shares are intended to lower a large number of the barriers preventing investors from using gold as an asset allocation and trading tool. These barriers have included the logistics of buying, storing and insuring gold. In addition, certain pension funds and mutual funds do not or cannot hold physical commodities, such as gold, or the derivatives.


Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com