Crude Oil: Dead Cat Bounce in Bear Market?

Crude Oil have reached the critical resistance turned support (at about $43 from the chart) after entering into a Bear Market. The recent plunge for oil into bear-market territory, defined as a drop from a recent peak of at least 20%, comes as a consortium led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have failed to stabilize prices, despite a recently reupped pact to limit production until March 2018.

If this $43 support holds, a Dead Cat Bounce to the down trend channel resistance is expected. Dead Cat Bounce is an opportunity to get out in the bear market.  If you are holding all oil & gas sensitive stocks and corporate bonds in Singapore like Keppel Corp, SembCorp and other 50 stocks I have screened using ShareInvestor, prepare for the rough ride if the Crude Oil break the $43 critical support and further downside is expected. It is time to review your portfolio what is your exposure to the energy and Oil & Gas sector, and re-balance  or hedge your portfolio if necessary.

Energy Sector ETF (XLE) is also trading in a clear down trend.

 

 

Last word: Trade & Invest based on what you see, NOT based on what you think, what you hope and what you hear.

Start review your portfolio NOW !

Safe investing!

Events

 

 

Weekly Inter Market Analysis Sept 18-2016

See previous week Weekly Inter Market Analysis.

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com

SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF)

SPY rebounded from the resistance turned support zone. SPY is still trading in a Rising Wedge pattern. Keep an eye on on key supports:

  • Resistance turned support zone: 211-213
  • Rising Wedge immediate support: about 210
  • Previous Head and Shoulders neckline support: about 204.
  • Rising Wedge next support: about 200

spy-sept-18-2016

 

VIX

VIX retraces after last week 40% spike but expect volatility in the coming week as FOMC releases statement on Sept 21.vix-sept-18-2016

 

Sector Performance (SPDR Sector ETF)

  • Best Sectors: Technology (XLK), Utility (XLU) and Healthcare (XLV)
  • Worst Sector: Energy (XLE), Financial Services (XLFS) and Financial (XLF)
  • Note: Defensive sectors outperforms aggressive sectors. XLK outperforms due to Apple (AAPL) which has very high weighting of 14.22%.

spdr-sector-performance-sept-18-2016

xlk-holding

SUDX (S&P US Dollar Futures Index)

SUDX is currently trading within a Symmetrical Triangle and likely to be trading in a tight range until a breakout. Wait for Yellen’s speech on the interest rate hike confirmation.

sudxsept-18-2016

FXE (Currency Shares Euro ETF)

FXE is curently trading sideway and range bound. Wait for Yellen’s speech on the interest rate hike confirmation before we can see the next big move.

fxe-sept-18-2016

XLE (SPDR Energy Sector ETF)

XLE broke down from the uptrend channel. Next support to watch is 64.74. This support is quite strong as it has been tested for 5 times.

xle-sept-18-2016

 

USO (United States Oil Fund)

USO is currently trading in a Symmetrical Triangle. Keep an eye on the next move when USO is trading closer to the apex of the triangle. Watch next Wednesday Sept 21 Crude Oil inventories report.

uso-sept-18-2016

 

TLT (iShares 20+ Years Treasury Bond ETF)

TLT gapped down and broke the uptrend support. Next important resistance turned support at 132.49.
tlt-sept-18-2016

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares)

Gold is currently trading in a consolidation (Rectangle pattern) and still on uptrend.  Currently GLD is just sitting on an important resistance turned support at about 125. This support has been tested 3 times previously. Can this support hold? If this support is broken, there will be a trend reversal as it is a Triple Tops chart pattern breakdown.gld-sept-18-2016

 

Next Week Economic Calendar

Key event:

  • Japan Monetary Policy & BOJ press conference on Sept 20 Tuesday and Sept 21 Wednesday
  • FOMC statement on Sept 21 Wednesday
  • Crude oil inventories on Sept 21 Wednesday

economic-calendar-sept-18-sept-24-2016

 

USO: Testing Critical Support

USO is currently testing a critical Resistance turned Support at about $10.30. This level is also the last defence of 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level. Breaking this support indicates the recent uptrend has over. USO is currently trading below 20D, 50D and 200D SMA.

USO July23-2016

See previous post on United States Oil Fund (USO) here.

Crude Oil Brent July24-2016 Crude Oil WTI July24-2016