Weekly Inter Market Analysis Sept 18-2016

See previous week Weekly Inter Market Analysis.

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com


SPY rebounded from the resistance turned support zone. SPY is still trading in a Rising Wedge pattern. Keep an eye on on key supports:

  • Resistance turned support zone: 211-213
  • Rising Wedge immediate support: about 210
  • Previous Head and Shoulders neckline support: about 204.
  • Rising Wedge next support: about 200




VIX retraces after last week 40% spike but expect volatility in the coming week as FOMC releases statement on Sept 21.vix-sept-18-2016


Sector Performance (SPDR Sector ETF)

  • Best Sectors: Technology (XLK), Utility (XLU) and Healthcare (XLV)
  • Worst Sector: Energy (XLE), Financial Services (XLFS) and Financial (XLF)
  • Note: Defensive sectors outperforms aggressive sectors. XLK outperforms due to Apple (AAPL) which has very high weighting of 14.22%.



SUDX (S&P US Dollar Futures Index)

SUDX is currently trading within a Symmetrical Triangle and likely to be trading in a tight range until a breakout. Wait for Yellen’s speech on the interest rate hike confirmation.


FXE (Currency Shares Euro ETF)

FXE is curently trading sideway and range bound. Wait for Yellen’s speech on the interest rate hike confirmation before we can see the next big move.


XLE (SPDR Energy Sector ETF)

XLE broke down from the uptrend channel. Next support to watch is 64.74. This support is quite strong as it has been tested for 5 times.



USO (United States Oil Fund)

USO is currently trading in a Symmetrical Triangle. Keep an eye on the next move when USO is trading closer to the apex of the triangle. Watch next Wednesday Sept 21 Crude Oil inventories report.



TLT (iShares 20+ Years Treasury Bond ETF)

TLT gapped down and broke the uptrend support. Next important resistance turned support at 132.49.

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares)

Gold is currently trading in a consolidation (Rectangle pattern) and still on uptrend.  Currently GLD is just sitting on an important resistance turned support at about 125. This support has been tested 3 times previously. Can this support hold? If this support is broken, there will be a trend reversal as it is a Triple Tops chart pattern breakdown.gld-sept-18-2016


Next Week Economic Calendar

Key event:

  • Japan Monetary Policy & BOJ press conference on Sept 20 Tuesday and Sept 21 Wednesday
  • FOMC statement on Sept 21 Wednesday
  • Crude oil inventories on Sept 21 Wednesday



Global Stock Market Indices PE Ratio At a Glance (2 May 2015)

Market Indices PE Ratio for Major Stock Exchange globally

  • US: Dow Jones Industrial, S&P500, NASDAQ, Russell 2000
  • Europe: FTSE100, CAC40, DAX
  • Asia: KLCI, STI, HangSeng, ASX200, CSI 300, JCI, SET, KOPSI, NIKKEI 225, SENSEX, TWSE, NZX50, PSEi

Global Stock Market PE PB Ratio Summary May2-2015

  • PE  = Price Per Earning

See April 2015 Global Stock Market PE Ratio here.

Dow Jones Industrial, S&P500 and NASDAQ are closed to historical high and seems like topping in process.  Average PE ratio increases from 21.17 to 22.01.  Most stock market are overvalue now.  VIX closed at 12.7, a very complacent level moving into May. Watch out for the seasonal pattern – Sell in May and Go away.

VIX May2-2015


Shiller PE Ratio May2-2015S&P500 PB Ratio May2-2015 S&P500 Dividend Yield May2-2015

Dow Jones Industrial, S&P500, NASDAQ, Russel 2000 Charts

  • INDU, SPX, COMPQ are still on uptrend but showing dangerous reversal chart pattern (multiple tops).
  • RUT broke down from a Rising Wedge but just sitting on the resistance turned support level. More down side is this support does not hold.
  • DIA, SPY, QQQ and IWM are the Indices ETF.

$INDU May2-2015$SPX May2-2015$COMPQ May2-2015$RUT May2-2015

DIA May2-2015SPY May2-2015QQQ May2-2015IWM May2-2015


Past 1 Month Sector Performance

Sector Performance May2-2015


Treasury Yield

US 5 Year Treasuy Yield May2-2015US 10 Year Treasuy Yield May2-2015US 30 Year Treasuy Yield May2-2015Yield Curve May2-2015


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