Weekly Inter Market Analysis Oct 9-2016

See previous week Weekly Inter Market Analysis.

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com

SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF)

SPY is currently forming a symmetrical triangle in a big Rising Wedge pattern. Symmetrical Triangle is a consolidation pattern until breakout. Keep an eye on on key supports:

  • Resistance turned support zone: 211-213
  • Rising Wedge immediate support: about 210
  • Previous Head and Shoulders neckline support: about 204.
  • Rising Wedge next support: about 200

spy-oct9-2016

 

VIX

VIX still stays below 15 – a complacent zone.

vix-oct9-2016

 

Sector Performance (SPDR Sector ETF)

  • Best Sectors: Financials (XLF) +1.66%
  • Worst Sector: Real Estate (XLRE) – 5.28%

sector-oct9-2016

 

SUDX (S&P US Dollar Futures Index)

SUDX broke out from the Symmetrical Triangle but immediately rejected at the support turned resistance at about 129.04 with a shooting star. Still need to wait for the confirmation of the breakout. Next FOMC statement on Nov 1/2.

sudx-oct9-2016

 

FXE (Currency Shares Euro ETF)

FXE is still trading sideway and range bound. Have to wait till next FOMC statement on Nov 1/2 before we can see the next big move.

fxe-oct9-2016

 

XLE (SPDR Energy Sector ETF)

Uptrend channel redrawn. XLE moves above 69.31. Critical support at 64.74 which has been tested for 5 times.

xle-oct9-2016

 

USO (United States Oil Fund)

USO broke out from Symmetrical Triangle but immediately rejected at the strong resistance with a Hanging Man with confirmation. Expect bearish reversal in the coming week.

uso-oct9-2016

 

TLT (iShares 20+ Years Treasury Bond ETF)

TLT broke 137.51 support and currently just resting on the next support at 132.5 with a Doji, indicates a pause in the recent down trend. Very interesting to see the sell down in TLT when SPY is moving side way.

tlt-oct9-2016

 

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares)

  • GLD broke down from the support with a gap down. GLD is currently testing a 200D SMA support. Can this 200D SMA support hold? Take note that 200D SMA is still trending up.
  • Fibonacci Retracement level redrawn for GLD. Currently GLD is also sitting on the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Support.
  • Expect GLD to rebound from level.

gld-oct9-2016

 

Next Week Economic Calendar

Key events:

  • FOMC Meeting Minutes on Oct 13 (Thursday)
  • Crude Oil Inventory on Oct 14 (Friday)
  • Janet Yellen speaks on Oct 15 (Saturday)

economic-calendar-oct9-oct15-2016

Weekly Inter Market Analysis Sept 18-2016

See previous week Weekly Inter Market Analysis.

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com

SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF)

SPY rebounded from the resistance turned support zone. SPY is still trading in a Rising Wedge pattern. Keep an eye on on key supports:

  • Resistance turned support zone: 211-213
  • Rising Wedge immediate support: about 210
  • Previous Head and Shoulders neckline support: about 204.
  • Rising Wedge next support: about 200

spy-sept-18-2016

 

VIX

VIX retraces after last week 40% spike but expect volatility in the coming week as FOMC releases statement on Sept 21.vix-sept-18-2016

 

Sector Performance (SPDR Sector ETF)

  • Best Sectors: Technology (XLK), Utility (XLU) and Healthcare (XLV)
  • Worst Sector: Energy (XLE), Financial Services (XLFS) and Financial (XLF)
  • Note: Defensive sectors outperforms aggressive sectors. XLK outperforms due to Apple (AAPL) which has very high weighting of 14.22%.

spdr-sector-performance-sept-18-2016

xlk-holding

SUDX (S&P US Dollar Futures Index)

SUDX is currently trading within a Symmetrical Triangle and likely to be trading in a tight range until a breakout. Wait for Yellen’s speech on the interest rate hike confirmation.

sudxsept-18-2016

FXE (Currency Shares Euro ETF)

FXE is curently trading sideway and range bound. Wait for Yellen’s speech on the interest rate hike confirmation before we can see the next big move.

fxe-sept-18-2016

XLE (SPDR Energy Sector ETF)

XLE broke down from the uptrend channel. Next support to watch is 64.74. This support is quite strong as it has been tested for 5 times.

xle-sept-18-2016

 

USO (United States Oil Fund)

USO is currently trading in a Symmetrical Triangle. Keep an eye on the next move when USO is trading closer to the apex of the triangle. Watch next Wednesday Sept 21 Crude Oil inventories report.

uso-sept-18-2016

 

TLT (iShares 20+ Years Treasury Bond ETF)

TLT gapped down and broke the uptrend support. Next important resistance turned support at 132.49.
tlt-sept-18-2016

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares)

Gold is currently trading in a consolidation (Rectangle pattern) and still on uptrend.  Currently GLD is just sitting on an important resistance turned support at about 125. This support has been tested 3 times previously. Can this support hold? If this support is broken, there will be a trend reversal as it is a Triple Tops chart pattern breakdown.gld-sept-18-2016

 

Next Week Economic Calendar

Key event:

  • Japan Monetary Policy & BOJ press conference on Sept 20 Tuesday and Sept 21 Wednesday
  • FOMC statement on Sept 21 Wednesday
  • Crude oil inventories on Sept 21 Wednesday

economic-calendar-sept-18-sept-24-2016

 

Weekly Inter Market Analysis Sept 11-2016

Learnt about JW5IMA in PMP. I create a KL8WIMA (Kenny Loh 8 Weekly Inter Market Analysis) for my own market watch. The objective is to monitor the correlation of different asset class / sectors movement every week. Feel free to comment if there are better alternatives.

Original post from http://mystocksinvesting.com

A long awaited sell off finally came on Friday (Sept 9-2016) after 2 months of low volatility and trading in a tight range for US market. Has the correction finally came? Will the sell off continue next week?

us-indices-sept9-2016 heatmap-sept-9-2016

SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF)

SPY gapped down and broken the support on last trading session. Next week will be crucial to see whether SPY can break the support to continue the sell off or rebound from here to continue the uptrend.

spy-sept11-2016

VIX

VIX spiked about 40% at last trading session. If VIX continues to move higher next week, tighten your seat belt!

vix-sept11-2016

SUDX (S&P US Dollar Futures Index)

SUDX is currently trading within a Symmetrical Triangle and likely to be trading in a tight range until a breakout. Wait for Yellen’s speech on the interest rate hike confirmation.

sudx-sept11-2016

FXE (Currency Shares Euro ETF)

Down trend has stopped for FXE. FXE is curently trading sideway and range bound. Wait for Yellen’s speech on the interest rate hike confirmation before we can see the next big move.

fxe-sept11-2016

XLE (SPDR Energy Sector ETF)

XLE came out from the down trend channel and currently looks like reversing to the uptrend. Crude Oil has bottomed up?

xle-sept11-2016

USO (United States Oil Fund)

USO is currently trading in a Symmetrical Triangle. Keep an eye on the next move when USO is trading closer to the apex of the triangle.

uso-sept11-2016

TLT (iShares 20+ Years Treasury Bond ETF)

SPY sold off, TLT sold off together? US Equity and Bond Market are moving in the same direction at the moment. This is not normal. Will the “Sell equity and move to bond in the bear market” strategy work moving forward? Base on the current equity and bond “synchronized movement”,  we may need to watch this space very closely and rethink our portfolio re-balancing strategy.

tlt-sept11-2016

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares)

Gold is currently trading in a consolidation (Rectangle pattern) and still on uptrend.  Expect GLD to move to 141.19 (161.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level) as long as the uptrend support holds. Can GLD be the safe harbor if Equity & Bond market sell off?

gld-sept11-2016

Next Week Economic Calendar

economic-calandar-sept11-sept17-2016