The Outperformer Stock Indices of January

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Now almost into February, the Straits Times Index (STI) has appreciated 3.2% in January to date. The STI is made up of 30 of the biggest listings on Singapore Exchange (SGX). Other Indices that are assigned Mainboard stocks based on size, otherwise referred to as capitalisation, are the FTSE ST Mid Cap Index, the FTSE ST Small Cap Index and the FTSE ST Fledgling Index.

As observed through the relative performance of the Indices, the indices of smaller stocks have outperformed in the month to date. That is, the STI gained 3.2%, Mid Cap Index gained 3.9%, Small Cap Index gained 7.8% and the Fledgling Index gained 12.5%. Over the month to date, the Small Cap Index and Fledgling Index have seen more gains in trading volume than the STI and Mid Cap Index. While the indices of the smaller stocks have outperformed, they have seen more variability in the returns of their top ten constituents.

The month to date performances of the three indices that represent non-STI stocks on the Mainboard, and their top ten constituents, are as follows:
 

  • The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index has gained +3.9% in the month to date. The largest ten constituents of the Mid Cap Index and month to date performances are: Ascendas REIT (A17U, +6.8%), Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (NS8U, +3.2%), Suntec REIT (T82U, +1.2%), CapitaCommercial Trust (C61U, +0.3%), UOL Group (U14, +3.4%), Keppel Land (K17, +2.7%), SATS (S58, +5.5%), Venture Corp (V03, +1.7%), Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U,+1.7%), Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings (BS6, +4.2%). Together these ten constituents made up 48.1% of the Mid Cap Index at the end of 2012.
  • The FTSE ST Small Cap Index has gained +7.8% in the month to date. The biggest ten of the 86 constituents of the Small Cap Index with (month to date performances) are Cache Logistics Trust (K2LU, +1.2%), Fraser Commercial Trust (ND8U, +3.4%), Cambridge Industrial Trust (J91U, +5.2%), United Engineers (U04, -4.5%), Sabana Shari’ah Compliant REIT (M1GU, +3.5%), Religare Health Trust (RF1U,+3.4%), AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (O5RU, +5.7%), Ascendas Hospitality Trust (Q1P, +4.3%), Ascendas India Trust (CY6U, +6.0%) and CitySpring Infrastructure Trust (A7RU, +1.1%). Together these ten constituents, of which, nine are either REITs or business trusts, made up 36.4% of the Small Cap Index at the end of 2012.
  • The FTSE ST Fledgling Index has gained +12.5% in the month to date. The biggest five constituents of the Fledgling Index and month to date performances are Blumont Group (A33, +33.3%), Rowsley (A50, unchanged), Innopac Holdings (I26, +153.9%), Sing Investments & Finance (S35, +1.4%) and Singapore Reinsurance (S49,-2.0%). The sixth biggest stock of the Fledgling Index going into January was Kian Ann Engineering (K04) which requested suspension effective 23 January pursuant to its proposed acquisition by Invicta Asian Holdings Pte. Ltd. The next biggest stocks of the Fledgling Index are Informatics Education (I03, unchanged), Abterra (L5I, -1.4%), Tianjin Zhongxin Pharmaceutical Group US$ (T14, +6.4%) and Sino Grandness Food Industry Group (JS5, +36.5%). Together these ten constituents made up 15.7% of the Fledgling Index at the end of 2012. Going into January, the FTSE ST Fledgling Index was comprised of 323 constituents listed on the Mainboard that were too small for the FTSE ST All-Share Index inclusion.

Source: SGX MyGateway

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Rotary Engineering: On Up Trend

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Rotary Engineering is currently trading within a Up Trend Channel after forming a “Higher High, Higher Low” pattern. The stock just rebounded from 61.8% FR level (also the neckline of Inverted Head and Shoulders) and clear the 200D SMA resistance. Price Target is about $0.60.

Next Earnings Announcement 02/28/2013

Previous analysis on Rotary Engineering breakout.

Continue ReadingRotary Engineering: On Up Trend

Apple (AAPL) Super Under Value Stock But Don’t Catch the Falling Knife!

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Don’t catch the falling knife although Apple (AAPL) is super under value now. Sarcastically most Analysts have a BUY or OVERWEIGHT call on AAPL but downgrade the target price. You are going to lose money if you just follow blindly the recommendation of the analysts. This is a classic example of combining Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, Analyst Recommendation and the interpretation of Target Price, and develop a Trading Plan or Investment Plan.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Last Traded Price = $439.88
  • Current PE = 9.96
  • Forward PE = 7.73
  • PEG = 0.48
  • P/B = 3.49
  • Current Ratio = 1.50
  • Debt / Equity = 0
  • ROA = 28.54%
  • ROE = 42.84%

Using DCF Valuation Method

  • Intrinsic Value (7% annual growth rate for the next 10 years) = $713.54
  • Intrinsic Value (12% annual growth rate for the next 10 years) = $918.80
  • Operating Cash Flow = $56,728 Million
  • No. of Shares Outstanding = 939.06 Million
  • Beta = 1.08
  • Discount Rate = 5%
  • Debt per Share = 0
  • Cash per Share = $42.40
 
Technical Analysis
  • AAPL breakdown from a Falling Wedge with Price Target of about $400 (short term).
  • AAPL also breakdown from a Head & Shoulders with neckline at $525 and the price target is $350 (long term).
  • Currently AAPL is trading down trend below 20D, 50D and 200D SMA.
 

Last Analysis on AAPL.

Last Intrinsic Calculation for AAPL.

 

Recent Upgrade / Downgrade

24-Jan-13 Reiterated UBS Buy $650 → $600
24-Jan-13 Reiterated RBC Capital Mkts Outperform $725 → $600
24-Jan-13 Reiterated Oppenheimer Outperform $800 → $600
24-Jan-13 Reiterated Mizuho Buy $600 → $575
24-Jan-13 Reiterated ISI Group Strong Buy $710 → $600
24-Jan-13 Reiterated Deutsche Bank Buy $800 → $575
24-Jan-13 Reiterated Barclays Overweight $740 → $575
23-Jan-13 Reiterated FBR Capital Outperform $725 → $675
22-Jan-13 Reiterated UBS Buy $700 → $650
22-Jan-13 Reiterated Monness Crespi & Hardt Buy $750 → $670
16-Jan-13 Reiterated Stifel Nicolaus Buy $825 → $725
07-Jan-13 Reiterated Barclays Overweight $800 → $740
21-Dec-12 Reiterated RBC Capital Mkts Outperform $750 → $725
17-Dec-12 Reiterated Mizuho Buy $750 → $600
17-Dec-12 Reiterated Canaccord Genuity Buy $800 → $750
14-Dec-12 Reiterated UBS Buy $780 → $700

 

Analyst Recommendation

 

Continue ReadingApple (AAPL) Super Under Value Stock But Don’t Catch the Falling Knife!