Money and Me: Will more S-REIT’s suspend distributions?

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15th March 2024

Money and Me: Will more S-REIT’s suspend distributions?

Who were the best and worst S-REITs performers of February 2024? And with US inflation staying persistent, how might this affect the US Fed interest rate cut roadmap and ultimately, the growth of S-REITs for the rest of this year? Which S-Reit’s could be mutl-baggers and why? Michelle Martin asks Kenny Loh, REIT Specialist and Independent Financial Advisor.

 
 

Note: The above analysis are my own personal views and are NOT buy or sell recommendations. Investors who would like to leverage my extensive research and years of Singapore REIT investing experience can approach me separately for a REIT Portfolio Consultation.

1 month free pass for REITsavvy screener


Curious about the REIT screener Michelle talks about in this episode? Kenny gives listeners access to a 1-month free pass for his screener at https://reitsavvy.com/reits-screener (Pass ends on April 15, 2024). Use promo code RSxMoneyFM

Listen to his previous market outlook interviews here:

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

Kenny Loh is an Associate Wealth Advisory Director and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments, Digital Assets and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also invited speaker of REITs Symposium and Invest Fair.  

You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement

Continue ReadingMoney and Me: Will more S-REIT’s suspend distributions?

Singapore REITs Monthly Update (March 3rd, 2024)

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Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS351020)


FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) decreased from 676.08 to 653.16 (-3.39%) compared to last month’s update. The REIT index is now trading in a downward channel, with the 20D SMA being the immediate resistance. It has broken the previous low in Oct 2022 (support), and has a new support at 611.

  • Short-term direction: Down
  • Medium-term direction: Down
  • Long-term direction: Down
  • Immediate Support at 611 (previous low in Oct 2023)
  • Immediate Resistance at 20D SMA, followed by 200D SMA

FTSE REIT Index Chart

Previous chart on FTSE ST REIT index can be found in the last post: Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on February 10th, 2024.

 

Fundamental Analysis of 38 Singapore REITs


The following is the compilation of 38 Singapore REITs with colour-coding of the Distribution Yield, Gearing Ratio and Price to NAV Ratio.

  • The Financial Ratios are based on past data and these are lagging indicators.
  • All REITs have the latest Q4 2023 update values.
  • I have introduced weighted average (weighted by market cap) to the financial ratios, in addition to the existing simple average ratios. This is another perspective where smaller market cap REITs do not disproportionately affect the average ratios.

Data from REITsavvy Screener. https://screener.reitsavvy.com/

 

What does each Column mean?

  • FY DPU: If Green, FY DPU for the recent 4 Quarters is higher than that of the preceding 4 Quarters. If Lower, it is Red.
  • Yield (ttm): Yield, calculated by DPU (trailing twelve months) and Current Price as of March 1st, 2024.
  • Gearing (%): Leverage Ratio.
  • Price/NAV: Price to Book Value. Formula: Current Price over Net Asset Value per Unit.
  • Yield Spread (%): REIT yield (ttm) reference to Gov Bond Yields. REITs trading in USD is referenced to US Gov Bond Yield, everything else is referenced to SG Gov Bond Yield.

Price/NAV Ratios Overview

  • Price/NAV increased to 0.79 (Weighted Average: 0.79)
    • Increased from 0.75 in February 2024.
    • Singapore Overall REIT sector is undervalued now.
    • Price/NAV increased due to NAV trending downwards from the latest Q4 2023 update.
  • Most overvalued REITs (based on Price/NAV)
    • EC World REIT 2.33
      ParkwayLife REIT 1.51
      Keppel DC REIT 1.26
      Capitaland Ascendas REIT 1.24
      Mapletree Industrial Tr 1.22
      Mapletree Logistics Tr 1.04
    • Only 6 REITs are overvalued now based on Price/NAV value.
    • EC World REIT has its NAV/Unit dropped from 0.75 to 0.12 as of the latest update. This caused its Price/NAV to skyrocket to 2.33.
  • Most undervalued REITs (based on Price/NAV)
    • Manulife US REIT 0.17
      Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT 0.18
      Prime US REIT 0.19
      Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust 0.27
      ARA Hospitality Trust 0.38
      OUE REIT 0.44

 

Distribution Yields Overview

  • TTM Distribution Yield decreased to 7.96%. (Weighted Average is 6.45%)    
    • Decreased from 8.21% in February 2024. (Weighted Average was 6.32%)
    • 19 of 40 Singapore REITs have ttm distribution yields of above 7%.
    • Do take note that these yield numbers are based on current prices taking into account the delayed distribution/dividend cuts due to COVID-19, and economic recovery.
    • 7 REITs have a ttm yield of over 10%!
  • Highest Distribution Yield REITs (ttm)
    • Prime US REIT 23.77
      Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT 19.69
      Elite Commercial REIT 13.68
      ARA Hospitality Trust 12.25
      Daiwa House Logistics Trust 12.23
      Cromwell European REIT 10.97
    • Reminder that these yield numbers are based on current prices. This has caused Prime US REIT’s and Keppel Pacific Oak REIT’s ttm yields to be over 25%, despite the distribution cuts/halts.
    • Some REITs opted for semi-annual reporting and thus no quarterly DPU was announced.
    • A High Yield should not be the sole ratio to look for when choosing a REIT to invest in.
  • Yield Spread tightened to 4.69%. (Weighted Average widened slightly to 3.91%)     
    • Tightened from 5.07% in February 2024. (Weighted Average was 3.85%)

 

Gearing Ratios Overview

  • Gearing Ratio increased slightly to 38.76%. (Weighted Average: 37.89%)    
    • Increased from 38.06% of February 2024. (Weighted Average: 37.86%)  
    • Gearing Ratios are updated quarterly.
    • S-REITs Gearing Ratio has been on a steady uptrend. It was 35.55% in Q4 2019.
  • Highest Gearing Ratio REITs
    • EC World REIT 58.3
      Manulife US REIT 58.3
      Prime US REIT 48.4
      Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust 44.3
      Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT 43.2
      Suntec REIT 42.3
    • MUST and EC World REIT’s gearing ratio has exceeded MAS’s gearing limit of 50%. However the aggregate leverage limit is not considered to be breached if exceeding the limit is due to circumstances beyond the control of the REIT Manager.

Market Capitalisation Overview

  • Total Singapore REIT Market Capitalisation decreased by 2.87% to S$87.49 Billion.
    • Decreased from S$90.08 Billion in February 2024.
  • Biggest Market Capitalisation REITs (S$):
    • Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust 12701.50
      Capitaland Ascendas REIT 11913.60
      Mapletree Logistics Tr 7256.20
      Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust 6930.00
      Mapletree Industrial Tr 6395.80
      Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust 3852.20
    • There are no change in the rankings since November 2022.
  • Smallest Market Capitalisation REITs (S$):
    • Manulife US REIT 104.88
      Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust 115.50
      Elite Commercial REIT 120.74
      Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT 132.08
      Prime US REIT 135.66
      ARA Hospitality Trust 161.90

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. If you want to know more about investing in REITs, scroll down for more information on the REITs courses.

Top 20 Worst Performers of February 2024


Source: https://screener.reitsavvy.com/

SG 10 Year & US 10 Year Government Bond Yield

  • SG 10 Year: 3.11% (increased from 2.98%)
  • US 10 Year: 4.18% (remained at 4.18%)

 

Summary


The past month was a bearish month for S-REITs again. This can be possibly caused by the continued increase in SG/US 10 Years Gov Bond Yields (highly inversely correlated with FTSE ST REIT Index in 2023) and poor earnings release by most of the REITs (which DPU was expected to drop YoY due to the full impact of interest rate hikes). Fundamentally, the whole Singapore REITs landscape remains undervalued based on the average Price/NAV (at 0.79) value of the S-REITs, with still a very attractive DPU yield of 7.96%! (Weighted average yield of 6.45%). Do take note that NAV and DPU are lagging numbers.

The earnings reporting season has ended for Q4 2023. The following are the summary q-o-q / h-o-h results for the S-REITs:

10 REITs reported an increase in DPU,

19 REITs reported a decrease in DPU,

6 REITs reported no change in DPU.

 

Weighted Average Yield spread (in reference to the 10-year Singapore government bond yield of 3.11% as of 10th February 2023) widened slightly from 3.86% to 3.91%. Based on the CME group’s interest rate futures, there will be a high possibility of rate cut of between 100-150 bps by end of 2024.

Technically the REIT Index has broken the previous support of about 665, and now has a new support at 611 (previous low in Oct 2022).

Trends and Predictions for Singapore REITs 2024


Join us for an enlightening webinar where we delve into the intricate world of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in Singapore against the backdrop of interest rate movements. Kenny Loh, a Singapore REIT Specialist and Independent Financial Advisor, will meticulously analyse current market trends and offer valuable insights into the potential risks and opportunities that lie ahead for S-REITs in 2024.

Key Topics Covered:

  • Impact of Interest Rate Movements on Singapore REITs Performance
  • Navigating Interest Rate Fluctuations
  • Identifying Emerging Risks and Seizing Opportunities in REITs Sector
  • Actionable Insights for Portfolio Positioning
  • Strategic Success Amidst Interest Rate Scenarios

 

Kenny Loh is a Wealth Advisory Director and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments, Digital Assets and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also invited speaker of REITs Symposium and Invest Fair.  You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement

Continue ReadingSingapore REITs Monthly Update (March 3rd, 2024)

Singapore REITs Monthly Update (February 10th, 2023)

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新年快乐! Have a happy Chinese New Year!

Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS351020)


FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased from 712.46 to 676.08 (-5.11%) compared to last month’s update. The REIT index is now in a downward parallel channel, with the 200D SMA being the immediate resistance, followed by the 739 as the next resistance.

  • Short-term direction: Down
  • Medium-term direction: Sideways
  • Long-term direction: Sideways
  • Immediate Support at 662 (previous low in Oct 2022)
  • Immediate Resistance at 200D SMA, 739

FTSE REIT Index Chart

Previous chart on FTSE ST REIT index can be found in the last post: Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on January 7th, 2023.

Fundamental Analysis of 38 Singapore REITs


The following is the compilation of 38 Singapore REITs with colour-coding of the Distribution Yield, Gearing Ratio and Price to NAV Ratio.

  • The Financial Ratios are based on past data and these are lagging indicators.
  • REITs highlighted in cyan have the latest Q4 2023 update values, the rest have Q3 update values.
  • I have introduced weighted average (weighted by market cap) to the financial ratios, in addition to the existing simple average ratios. This is another perspective where smaller market cap REITs do not disproportionately affect the average ratios.

Data from REITsavvy Screener. https://screener.reitsavvy.com/

What does each Column mean?

  • FY DPU: If Green, FY DPU for the recent 4 Quarters is higher than that of the preceding 4 Quarters. If Lower, it is Red.
  • Yield (ttm): Yield, calculated by DPU (trailing twelve months) and Current Price as of February 9th, 2023.
  • Gearing (%): Leverage Ratio.
  • Price/NAV: Price to Book Value. Formula: Current Price over Net Asset Value per Unit.
  • Yield Spread (%): REIT yield (ttm) reference to Gov Bond Yields. REITs trading in USD is referenced to US Gov Bond Yield, everything else is referenced to SG Gov Bond Yield.

Price/NAV Ratios Overview

  • Price/NAV decreased to 0.75 (Weighted Average: 0.75)
    • Decreased from 0.79 in January 2023.
    • Singapore Overall REIT sector is very undervalued now.
    • Take note that NAV is adjusted upwards for some REITs due to pandemic recovery.
  • Most overvalued REITs (based on Price/NAV)
    • ParkwayLife REIT 1.53
      Mapletree Industrial Tr 1.29
      Keppel DC REIT 1.28
      Capitaland Ascendas REIT 1.23
      Mapletree Logistics Tr 1.08
      Frasers Centrepoint Trust 0.97
    • Only 5 REITs are overvalued now based on Price/NAV value.
    • After 9 months of reigning in the Top 2, Mapletree Industrial Trust has taken Keppel DC REIT’s place.
  • Most undervalued REITs (based on Price/NAV)
    • Manulife US REIT 0.18
      Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust 0.19
      Prime US REIT 0.21
      Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT 0.31
      ARA Hospitality Trust 0.37
      EC World REIT 0.40

 

Distribution Yields Overview

  • TTM Distribution Yield decreased to 8.21%. (Weighted Average is 6.32%)    
    • Decreased from 8.35% in January 2023. (Weighted Average was 6.16%)
    • 19 of 40 Singapore REITs have ttm distribution yields of above 7%.
    • Do take note that these yield numbers are based on current prices taking into account the delayed distribution/dividend cuts due to COVID-19, and economic recovery.
    • 7 REITs have a ttm yield of over 10%!
  • Highest Distribution Yield REITs (ttm)
    • Prime US REIT 34.31
      Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT 21.12
      Elite Commercial REIT 14.22
      EC World REIT 12.85
      Cromwell European REIT 11.76
      United Hampshire REIT 11.35
    • Reminder that these yield numbers are based on current prices. This has caused and Prime US REIT’s ttm yields to be over 25%. Manulife US REIT has announced a distribution halt as part of its recapitalisation plan.
    • Some REITs opted for semi-annual reporting and thus no quarterly DPU was announced.
    • A High Yield should not be the sole ratio to look for when choosing a REIT to invest in.
  • Yield Spread tightened to 5.07%. (Weighted Average widened slightly to 3.85%)     
    • Tightened from 5.40% in January 2023. (Weighted Average was 3.80%)

 

Gearing Ratios Overview

  • Gearing Ratio decreased to 38.06%. (Weighted Average: 37.86%)    
    • Decreased from 38.16% of January 2023. (Weighted Average: 38.38%)  
    • Gearing Ratios are updated quarterly.
    • S-REITs Gearing Ratio has been on a steady uptrend. It was 35.55% in Q4 2019.
  • Highest Gearing Ratio REITs
    • Manulife US REIT 58.3
      Elite Commercial REIT 45.4
      Prime US REIT 43.7
      Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust 43.0
      Suntec REIT 42.3
      United Hampshire REIT 41.7
    • Manulife’s gearing ratio has exceeded MAS’s gearing limit of 50%. In last month’s Money and Me episode, we discussed why has the proposal to rescue Manulife US REIT fallen flat, and can Manulife US REIT be saved. Listen to it here.

 

Market Capitalisation Overview

  • Total Singapore REIT Market Capitalisation decreased by 7.51% to S$90.08 Billion.
    • Decreased from S$97.46 Billion in January 2023.
  • Biggest Market Capitalisation REITs (S$):
    • Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust 13233.50
      Capitaland Ascendas REIT 11826.00
      Mapletree Logistics Tr 7504.70
      Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust 7297.50
      Mapletree Industrial Tr 6735.40
      Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust 4114.00
    • There are no change in the rankings since November 2022.
  • Smallest Market Capitalisation REITs (S$):
    • Manulife US REIT 110.40
      Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust 115.50
      Elite Commercial REIT 130.40
      ARA Hospitality Trust 164.79
      Prime US REIT 190.40
      EC World REIT 226.76

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. If you want to know more about investing in REITs, scroll down for more information on the REITs courses.

Top 20 Worst Performers of January 2023


Source: https://screener.reitsavvy.com/

SG 10 Year & US 10 Year Government Bond Yield

  • SG 10 Year: 2.98% (increased from 2.78%)
  • US 10 Year: 4.18% (increased from 4.05%)

 

Summary


The past month was a bearish month for S-REITs again which possibly caused by the increase in US 10 Years Gov Bond Yields (highly inversely correlated with FTSE ST REIT Index in 2023) and poor earnings release by most of the REITs (which DPU was expected to drop YoY due to the full impact of interest rate). Fundamentally, the whole Singapore REITs landscape remains undervalued based on the average Price/NAV (at 0.75) value of the S-REITs, with still a very attractive DPU yield of 8.35%! (Weighted average yield of 6.32%). Do take note that NAV and DPU are lagging numbers.

FTSE ST REIT Index vs 10 Year US Gov Bond Yield
FTSE S-REIT’s Inverse Correlation with 10Y US Gov Bond Yield

Weighted Average Yield spread (in reference to the 10-year Singapore government bond yield of 2.98% as of 10th February 2023) widened slightly from 3.80% to 3.85%. Based on the CME group’s interest rate futures, there will be a high possibility of rate cut of between 100-150 bps by end of 2024.

Technically the FTSE ST REIT index is expected to be range bound between 739 to 662 until a clear breakout. The next FOMC meeting on Mar 20-2024 would be the key date REIT investors should be looking forward to.

Want to know more about the REITs market outlook for 2024? Want to gain insights into subsector performances, management strategies for navigating macro challenges and risks to watch when venturing overseas for REITs? Watch my interview “REIT Outlook: Pro Forecasts, Strategies and Picks for 2024″ with the Financial Coconut now!

 

Courses: Financial Ratio Analysis and Technical Analysis for REITs with SGX Academy


 
 

Financial Ratio Analysis for Singapore REITS (2nd March 2024, 9am to 1pm)

 
You will learn how to:
  • Learn how to assess the financial health of Singapore REITs by analyzing key ratios
  • Identifying financial strengths and weaknesses, enabling them to make informed investment decisions
  • Interpret ratios and understand what are the operation factors which can affect the ratio in future
  • Learn how to use valuation ratios to determine the fair value of Singapore REITs and assess their sustainability.
  • Identify undervalued or overvalued REITs, aiding them in making sound investment choices. 

Cost: $467  –> $373  (20% discount if you use this link!)

Venue: SGX Academy Room. 2 Shenton way
SGX Centre 1. Level 2, S068804

Laptop is required. Please bring your own laptop for the training.

 

Technical Analysis for Singapore REITS (9th March 2024, 9am to 1pm)

 
You will learn how to:
  • Learn how to effectively use chart patterns, identify support and resistance to analyze Singapore REITs’ price movements
  • Identify trends and make informed investment decisions
  • Gain insights into market psychology and sentiment analysis
  • Gauge the overall market sentiment and make better predictions about future price movements of Singapore REITs
  • Learn how to develop and implement trading strategies based on technical analysis

Cost: $467 –> $373 (20% discount if you use this link!)

Venue: SGX Academy Room. 2 Shenton way
SGX Centre 1. Level 2, S068804

Laptop is required. Please bring your own laptop for the training

Kenny Loh is a Wealth Advisory Director and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments, Digital Assets and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also invited speaker of REITs Symposium and Invest Fair.  You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement

Continue ReadingSingapore REITs Monthly Update (February 10th, 2023)