Singapore REIT Monthly Update (Apr 05 – 2021)

  • Post author:

Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS8670)

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased from 826.65 to 859.68 (+3.99%) compared to last month update. Currently the Singapore REIT index is still trading with a range between 816 and 874.

  • As for now, Short term direction: Sideway.
  • Immediate Support at 816, followed by 775.
  • Immediate Resistance at 874.

Previous chart on FTSE ST REIT index can be found in the last post Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Mar 4, 2021.

Fundamental Analysis of 40 Singapore REITs

The following is the compilation of 40 Singapore REITs with colour coding of the Distribution Yield, Gearing Ratio and Price to NAV Ratio.

  • Note 1: The Financial Ratio are based on past data and there are lagging indicators.
  • Note 2: This REIT table takes into account the dividend cuts due to COVID-19 outbreak. Yield is calculated trailing twelve months (ttm), therefore REITs with delayed payouts might have lower displayed yields, thus yield displayed might be lower.
  • Note 3: REITs highlighted in blue have been updated with the latest the Q1 2021 business updates.

(Source: https://stocks.cafe/kenny/advanced)

Do sign up for the REIT screener at only ~$8.33 per month! (limited time only). Normal price $120 per year.

  • Price/NAV remained at 1.01
    • Was 1.01 in March 2021
    • Singapore Overall REIT sector is at about fair value now
    • Take note that NAV is adjusted downward for most REITs due to drop in rental income (Property valuation is done using DCF model or comparative model)
  • TTM Distribution Yield decreased to 5.47%
    • Decreased from 5.68% in March 2021
    • 31% of Singapore REITs (12 out of 39) have distribution yields of above 7%.
    • Do take note that these yield numbers are based on current prices taking into account the delayed distribution/dividend cuts due to COVID-19, and post circuit breaker recovery.
    • Excluded Eagle Hospitality Trust due to suspension.
  • Gearing Ratio at 37.44%. 
    • Remained at 37.44% in March 2021.
    • Gearing Ratios are updated quarterly.
    • In general, Singapore REITs sector gearing ratio is healthy but started to increase due to the reduction of the valuation of portfolios and increase in borrowing due to Covid-19.
  • Most overvalued REITs (based on Price/NAV)
    • Keppel DC REIT (Price/NAV = 2.29)
    • Parkway Life REIT (Price/NAV = 2.08)
    • Mapletree Industrial Trust (Price/NAV = 1.61)
    • Mapletree Logistics Trust (Price/NAV = 1.52)
    • Ascendas REIT (Price/NAV = 1.38)
    • No change from January – March 2021 for top 5 overvalued REITs ranking
  • Most undervalued REITs (based on Price/NAV)
    • Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (Price/NAV = 0.39)
    • First REIT (Price/NAV = 0.47)
    • BHG REIT (Price/NAV = 0.64)
    • OUE Commercial REIT (Price/NAV = 0.66)
    • Starhill Global REIT (Price/NAV = 0.70)
    • Sabana REIT (Price/NAV =0.77)
    • Suntec REIT (Price/NAV = 0.77)
  • Highest Distribution Yield REITs (ttm)
    • First REIT (17.66%)
    • KepPacOak US REIT (8.65%)
    • Prime US REIT (8.31%)
    • IREIT Global (7.80%)
    • Manulife REIT (7.67%)
    • Cromwell European REIT (7.57%)
    • Reminder that these yield numbers are based on current prices taking into account delayed distribution/dividend cuts due to COVID-19.
    • Some REITs opted for semi-annual reporting and thus no quarterly DPU was announced.
  • Highest Gearing Ratio REITs
    • Eagle Hospitality Trust (65.5%) * Filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection *
    • First REIT (49%)
    • ARA Hospitality Trust (48.2%)
    • Suntec REIT (44.3%)
    • Lippo Malls Retail Trust (42.4%)
    • ESR REIT (41.6%)
    • Mapletree NAC Trust (41.3%)
    • OUE Commercial REIT (41.2%)
  • Total Singapore REIT Market Capitalisation = S$107.9 Billion.
    • Increased from S$104.9 Billion in January 2021.
  • Biggest Market Capitalisation REITs:
    • Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust ($14.18B)
    • Ascendas REIT ($12.30B)
    • Mapletree Logistics Trust ($8.31B)
    • Mapletree Commercial Trust ($7.06B)
    • Mapletree Industrial Trust ($6.42B)
    • No change in ranking compared to March 2021 update.
  • Smallest Market Capitalisation REITs:
    • BHG Retail REIT ($281M)
    • United Hamsphire REIT ($327M)
    • First REIT ($376M)
    • ARA Hospitality Trust ($397M)
    • Sabana REIT ($415M)
    • No change in ranking compared to March 2021 update.
  • Eagle Hospitality Trust is currently suspended

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. To learn how to use the table and make investing decision, Sign up next REIT Investing Workshop here to learn how to choose a fundamentally strong Singapore REIT for long term investing for passive income generation.

Top 20 Performers of the Month (Source: https://stocks.cafe/kenny/advanced)

SG 10 Year & US 10 Year Government Bond Yield

  • SG 10 Year: 1.391%
  • US 10 Year: 1.45%

Summary

Fundamentally the whole Singapore REITs is close to fair value now based on simple average on the Price/NAV. Below is the market cap heat map for the past 1 month. The REIT sector rebounded after a correction due to spike in 10 Years US Treasury Bond Yield. US interest rate continues to stay low at 0.25% from last US FOMC meeting on Mar 17, 2021.  It is expected the US interest rate to stay low for the whole of 2021.

(Source: https://stocks.cafe/kenny/overview)

Yield spread (reference to 10 year Singapore government bond of 1.391%) continues to tighten from 4.289% to 4.08%. However, the risk premium are still attractive to accumulate Singapore REITs in stages to lock in the current price and long term yield after the recovery. Moving forward, it is expected the increase of DPU due to the recovery of global economy.

Technically the REIT Index is currently trading in a sideway consolidation after the false breakout. However, current macro factors such as low interest rate environment, aggressive M&A for future DPU growth and recovery of global economic support the bullish breakout.

Note: This above analysis is for my own personal research and it is NOT a buy or sell recommendation. Investors who would like to leverage on my extensive research and years on Singapore REIT investing experience can approach me separately for REIT Portfolio Consultation.

Kenny Loh is a Senior Consultant and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments, Digital Assets and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also invited speaker of REITs Symposium and Invest Fair.  You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement

Continue Reading Singapore REIT Monthly Update (Apr 05 – 2021)

Singapore REIT Monthly Update (Mar 04 – 2021)

  • Post author:

Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS8670)

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) decreased from 877.59 to 826.65 (-5.80%) compared to last month update. Currently the Singapore REIT index is moving sideway after a false breakout at the resistance of 874.

  • As for now, Short term direction: Sideway.
  • Immediate Support at 825, followed by 775.
  • Immediate Resistance at 874.

Previous chart on FTSE ST REIT index can be found in the last post Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Jan 24, 2021.

Fundamental Analysis of 40 Singapore REITs

The following is the compilation of 40 Singapore REITs with colour coding of the Distribution Yield, Gearing Ratio and Price to NAV Ratio.

  • Note 1: The Financial Ratio are based on past data and there are lagging indicators.
  • Note 2: This REIT table takes into account the dividend cuts due to COVID-19 outbreak. Yield is calculated trailing twelve months (ttm), therefore REITs with delayed payouts might have lower displayed yields, thus yield displayed might be lower.
  • Note 3: REITs highlighted in blue have been updated with the latest the Q4 2020 business updates.

(Source: https://stocks.cafe/kenny/advanced)

Do sign up for the REIT screener at only ~$8.33 per month! (limited time only). Normal price $120 per year.

  • Price/NAV decreased at 0.98
    • Decreased from 1.01 in January 2021
    • Singapore Overall REIT sector is at about fair value now
    • Take note that NAV is adjusted downward for most REITs due to drop in rental income (Property valuation is done using DCF model or comparative model)
  • TTM Distribution Yield increased to 5.68%
    • Increased from 5.45% in January 2021
    • One Third of Singapore REITs (13 out of 39) have distribution yields of above 7%.
    • Do take note that these yield numbers are based on current prices taking into account the delayed distribution/dividend cuts due to COVID-19, and post circuit breaker recovery.
    • Exclude Eagle Hospitality Trust due to suspension.
  • Gearing Ratio at 37.44%. 
    • Reduce from 38.19% in January 2021.
    • In general, Singapore REITs sector gearing ratio is healthy but started to increase due to the reduction of the valuation of portfolios and increase in borrowing.
  • Most overvalued REITs (based on Price/NAV)
    • Keppel DC REIT (Price/NAV = 2.28)
    • Parkway Life (Price/NAV = 2.09)
    • Mapletree Industrial Trust (Price/NAV = 1.55)
    • Mapletree Logistics Trust (Price/NAV = 1.45)
    • Ascendas REIT (Price/NAV = 1.34)
    • No change from January 2021 for top 5 overvalued REITs ranking
  • Most undervalued REITs (based on Price/NAV)
    • Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (Price/NAV = 0.36)
    • First REIT (Price/NAV = 0.42)
    • OUE Commercial REIT (Price/NAV = 0.63)
    • Starhill Global REIT (Price/NAV = 0.64)
    • BHG REIT (Price/NAV = 0.67)
    • Sabana REIT (Price/NAV =0.73)
    • Suntec REIT (Price/NAV = 0.73)
  • Highest Distribution Yield REITs (ttm)
    • First REIT (19.76%)
    • KepPacOak US REIT (9.16%)
    • Prime US REIT (8.73%)
    • Manulife REIT (8.42%)
    • Sasseur REIT (7.65%)
    • Reminder that these yield numbers are based on current prices taking into account delayed distribution/dividend cuts due to COVID-19.
    • Some REITs opted for semi-annual reporting and thus no quarterly DPU was announced.
  • Highest Gearing Ratio REITs
    • Eagle Hospitality Trust (65.5%) * Filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection *
    • First REIT (49%)
    • ARA Hospitality Trust (48.2%)
    • Suntec REIT (44.3%)
    • Lippo Malls Retail Trust (42.4%)
    • ESR REIT (41.6%)
    • Mapletree NAC Trust (41.3%)
    • OUE Commercial REIT (41.2%)
  • Total Singapore REIT Market Capitalisation = S$104.9 Billion.
    • Decreased from S$107.2 Billion in January 2021.
  • Biggest Market Capitalisation REITs:
    • Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust ($13.91B)
    • Ascendas REIT ($11.64B)
    • Mapletree Logistics Trust ($8.48B)
    • Mapletree Commercial Trust ($6.73B)
    • Mapletree Industrial Trust ($6.70B)
  • Smallest Market Capitalisation REITs:
    • BHG Retail REIT ($296M)
    • United Hamsphire REIT ($327M)
    • First REIT ($328M)
    • ARA Hospitality Trust ($380M)
    • Sabana REIT ($400M)
  • Eagle Hospitality Trust is currently suspended

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. To learn how to use the table and make investing decision, Sign up next REIT Investing Workshop here to learn how to choose a fundamentally strong Singapore REIT for long term investing for passive income generation.

Top 20 Performers of the Month (Source: https://stocks.cafe/kenny/advanced)

SG 10 Year & US 10 Year Government Bond Yield

  • SG 10 Year: 1.391%
  • US 10 Year: 1.45%

Summary

Fundamentally the whole Singapore REITs is close to fair value now based on simple average on the Price/NAV. Below is the market cap heat map for the past 1 month. In general, the Singapore REITs sector is going through a correction now caused by a spike in 10 Years US Treasury Bond Yield due to  the fear of inflation. However, I think it is still too early to talk about inflation now as the world is still at the early economy recovery phase. This is probably a knee jerk reaction to let go some weak investors. This correction presents another entry opportunities for investors who miss out the entry during the market crash in Mar-May 2020. Next US FOMC meeting is on Mar 17, 2021 and it is 95.2% probability the US fed will keep the current low interest rate.

(Source: https://stocks.cafe/kenny/overview)

Yield spread (reference to 10 year Singapore government bond of 1.391%) tighten from 4.449% to 4.289% . However, the risk premium are still attractive to accumulate Singapore REITs in stages to lock in the current price and long term yield after the recovery. Moving forward, it is expected the increase of DPU due to the recovery of global economy.

Technically the REIT Index is currently trading in a sideway consolidation after the false breakout. However, current macro factors such as low interest rate environment, aggressive M&A for future DPU growth and recovery of global economic support the bullish breakout.

Note: This above analysis is for my own personal research and it is NOT a buy or sell recommendation. Investors who would like to leverage on my extensive research and years on Singapore REIT investing experience can approach me separately for REIT Portfolio Consultation.

Kenny Loh is a Senior Consultant and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also invited speaker of REITs Symposium and Invest Fair.  You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement

Continue Reading Singapore REIT Monthly Update (Mar 04 – 2021)

Singapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table Jan 24 – 2021

  • Post author:

Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS8670)

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased from 854.19 to 877.59 (+2.74%) compared to last month update. Currently the Singapore REIT index has started an uptrend after broke the resistance of about 852 and 874.

  • As for now, Short term direction: Up trend. (All 20D, 50D and 200D SMA have started trending up)
  • Immediate Support at 874 (Resistance turned Support)
  • Immediate Resistance at 900, followed by 940.

Previous chart on FTSE ST REIT index can be found in the last post Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Dec 20, 2020.

Fundamental Analysis of 40 Singapore REITs

The following is the compilation of 40 Singapore REITs with colour coding of the Distribution Yield, Gearing Ratio and Price to NAV Ratio.

  • Note 1: The Financial Ratio are based on past data and there are lagging indicators.
  • Note 2: This REIT table takes into account the dividend cuts due to COVID-19 outbreak. Yield is calculated trailing twelve months (ttm), therefore REITs with delayed payouts might have lower displayed yields, thus yield displayed might be lower.
  • Note 3: REITs highlighted in blue have been updated with the latest the Q4 2020 business updates.
  • Note 4: Capital Mall Trust has merged with Capitaland Commercial Trust and has became Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust (C38U). Capitaland Commercial Trust is delisted.

(Source: https://stocks.cafe/kenny/advanced)

Do sign up for the REIT screener at only ~$8.33 per month! (limited time only). Normal price $120 per year.

  • Price/NAV increased to 1.01
    • Increased from 0.98 in December 2020
    • Singapore Overall REIT sector is at about fair value now
  • TTM Distribution Yield increased to 5.45%
    • Increased from 5.30% in December 2020
    • After Q3 earning release (and Q4 earnings release for 6 REITs) after factoring in the dividend cut impact caused by COVID-19).
    • About 22.5% of Singapore REITs (9 out of 40) have distribution yields of above 7%.
    • Do take note that these yield numbers are based on current prices taking into account the delayed distribution/dividend cuts due to COVID-19.
  • Gearing Ratio at 38.19%. 
    • Increased from 37.63% in December 2020
    • In general, Singapore REITs sector gearing ratio is healthy but started to increase due to the reduction of the valuation of portfolios and increase in borrowing.
  • Most overvalued REITs (based on Price/NAV)
    • Keppel DC REIT (Price/NAV = 2.45)
    • Parkway Life (Price/NAV = 2.08)
    • Mapletree Industrial Trust (Price/NAV = 1.70)
    • Mapletree Logistics Trust (Price/NAV = 1.68)
    • Ascendas REIT (Price/NAV = 1.47)
    • No change from December 2020 for top 5 overvalued REITs ranking
  • Most undervalued REITs (based on Price/NAV)
    • Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (Price/NAV = 0.23)
    • First REIT (Price/NAV = 0.49)
    • Starhill Global REIT (Price/NAV = 0.64)
    • OUE Commercial REIT (Price/NAV = 0.65)
    • ARA Hospitality Trust (Price/NAV = 0.69)
    • BHG REIT (Price/NAV = 0.71)
  • Highest Distribution Yield REITs (ttm)
    • First REIT (16.94%)
    • Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (12.62%)
    • KepPacOak US REIT (8.75%)
    • Sasseur REIT (7.61%)
    • EC World REIT (7.51%)
    • ARA LOGOS Logistic Trust (7.48%)
    • Reminder that these yield numbers are based on current prices taking into account delayed distribution/dividend cuts due to COVID-19.
    • Some REITs opted for semi-annual reporting and thus no quarterly DPU was announced.
  • Highest Gearing Ratio REITs
    • Eagle Hospitality Trust (65.5%) * Filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection *
    • First REIT (49%)
    • ARA Hospitality Trust (43%)
    • Lippo Malls Retail Trust (42.5%)
    • ESR REIT (41.6%)
    • Suntec REIT (41.5%)
    • Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust (40.6%)
    • ARA Logos Logistic Trust (40.5%)
    • OUE Commercial REIT (40.3%)
    • Mapletree NAC Trust (40.1%)
  • Total Singapore REIT Market Capitalisation = S$107.2 Billion.
    • Increased from S$103.5 Billion in December 2020.
  • Biggest Market Capitalisation REITs:
    • Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust ($14.89B)
    • Ascendas REIT ($11.75B)
    • Mapletree Logistics Trust ($8.35B)
    • Mapletree Commercial Trust ($7.23B)
    • Mapletree Industrial Trust ($6.86B)
  • Smallest Market Capitalisation REITs:
    • Eagle Hospitality Trust ($119M)
    • First REIT ($198M)
    • United Hamsphire REIT ($286M)
    • BHG Retail REIT ($301M)
    • ARA Hospitality Trust ($386M)
    • Sabana REIT ($395M)
  • Eagle Hospitality Trust is currently suspended

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. To learn how to use the table and make investing decision, Sign up next REIT Investing Workshop here to learn how to choose a fundamentally strong Singapore REIT for long term investing for passive income generation.

Top 20 Performers of the Month (Source: https://stocks.cafe/kenny/advanced)

SG 10 Year & US 10 Year Government Bond Yield

  • SG 10 Year: 1.004%
  • US 10 Year: 1.09%

Summary

Fundamentally the whole Singapore REITs is close to fair value now based on simple average on the Price/NAV. Below is the market cap heat map for the past 1 month. We can see from here Hospitality sector is taking a breather after a strong run up on the previous month, and other small & medium cap REITs (e.g. Keppel REIT, Cromwell European REIT, ARA Logos Logistic Trust, BHG Retail REIT, Prime US REIT) which are playing catch up now due to cheap valuation.

(Source: https://stocks.cafe/kenny/overview)

Yield spread (reference to 10 year Singapore government bond of 1.004%) widen slightly from 4.407% to 4.449%. However, the risk premium are still attractive to accumulate Singapore REITs in stages to lock in the current price and long term yield after the recovery. Moving forward, it is expected the increase of DPU due to the recovery of global economy.

Technically the REIT Index broke the resistance and started an uptrend. Current macro factors such as low interest rate environment, aggressive M&A for future DPU growth and recovery of global economic support the bullish breakout.

Note: This above analysis is for my own personal research and it is NOT a buy or sell recommendation. Investors who would like to leverage on my extensive research and years on Singapore REIT investing experience can approach me separately for REIT Portfolio Consultation.

Kenny Loh is a Senior Consultant and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also invited speaker of REITs Symposium and Invest Fair.  You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement

Continue Reading Singapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table Jan 24 – 2021