Why Most Investors Lose Money in Real Estate and Property Stocks in 2013?

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In general, your portfolio should have a lot of red (if you are still holding now) if you have invested in any property stocks (Capitaland, Keppel Land, City Development, UOL, etc) and REITs but did not hedge your portfolio with CFD.

So A-million dollar questions to most of the investors or traders in Singapore including myself:

  1. Is it the right time to pick up property stocks or REITs since the stock price has dropped so much?
  2. What should I do if I am still holding those property stocks and REITs? Should I cut loss or hold on and wait for the recovery?
  3. Is there any trading opportunity in property stocks?

Fundamentally the real estate / property sectors are hit by all the cooling measures and fear of interest hike due to QE tapering. I will not touch on the above 2 topics as there are already a lot of news and articles talking the impact to the property sectors in Singapore. I will be focusing in using technical analysis to analyse the overall trend for property sectors as a whole and individual stocks.

FTSE ST Real Estate Index

The index is trading in a Elliott Wave pattern and there is a possibility to start a Big Wave C down if break down from the Falling Wedge.

FTSE ST Real Estate Index Jan23-2014

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trust Index

Singapore REITs is officially enter into bear trend after dropping more than 20% from the top.

The chart pattern is similar to FTSE ST Real Estate Index (Elliott Wave + Falling Wedge). More selling of the REIT is the support (about 690) of Falling wedge is broken.

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trust Index Jan23-2014

FTSE ST Real Estate Index Components Stocks

FTSE ST Real Estate Top 10 Companies Dec-2013

Fundamental Comparison for Key Component Stocks and Property Stocks

Property Stocks Fundamental Comparison Jan23-2014

Fundamental Comparison for Singapore REITs

Hong Kong Land – Down Trend

HK Land Sept14-2013

Global Logistic Properties (GLP) – Up Trend

2014Jan23-GLOBAL LOGISTIC PROP LIMITED-800x600

Capitaland – Break out from Descending Triangle. Continue Down Trend.

2014Jan23-Capitaland-800x600

City Development – Break out from Descending Triangle. Continue Down Trend.

2014Jan23-CITYDEV-800x600

UOL Limited – Trading in a Falling Wedge.

UOL Jan23-2014

CapitaMall Trust – In consolidation.

2014Jan23-CapitaMall-800x600

Ascendas REIT – Consolidation in Rectangle. Range Bound.

2014Jan23-Ascendasreit-800x600

Suntec REIT – In consolidation.

2014Jan23 SuntecReit-800x600

CapitaCommercial Trust – In consolidation.

2014Jan23-CapitaComm-800x600

Summary

Most of the property stocks and REITs either trading on down trend on in consolidation. Take note that the stocks are trading below 200D SMA (long term trend) which is sloping down (bearish signal). Base on the charts, this property and Real Estate sector have not found the bottom yet and probably will continue trading in a down trend in 2014. Bad news for investors who are still holding the stocks but good news for traders who know how to short the stock market. It will be a while for those smart investors who want undervalue stocks (Hong Kong Land, Capitaland, UOL, Keppel Land) to buy at bottom but need to keep a close eye on the chart.

Continue ReadingWhy Most Investors Lose Money in Real Estate and Property Stocks in 2013?

Singapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table – 12 Dec 2013

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FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT) Index changes from 740.76 to 693.59 compare to last post on Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Nov 9, 2013. The index is trading below 200D SMA and technically bearish. Currently the index is just sitting on the previous low support. More down side expected if the support is broken. Fundamentally there is still a fear of interest hike in near future which dampen the investment sentiment in REIT.

FTSE ST REIT Index Dec12-2013

Compare to last Singapore REIT comparison table:

Added VIVA Industrial Trust in the table.

  • Price/NAV drops from 1.0213 to 0.9748. (More yellow in the table now –> More REIT is under value now)
  • Dividend Yield increases from  6.15% to 6.50%. (Yield is getting more attractive)
  • Gearing Ratio increases from 32.92% to 33.34%.
  • In general, most Singapore REIT is slightly under value now and the distribution yield is getting attractive. However technically Singapore REIT is in the bearish territory and going to drop further if the support (FTSE ST REIT Index Chart) is broken. So don’t be ignorant to think this is the time to buy REIT yet as the price can drop further.  The uncertainty in term of interest hike in near future remains high as Federal is getting very close to start QE tapering after a series of good economy data in US. If you are still holding REIT at the moment, you need to have a strong heart to handle the potential new drop in your REIT. Good Luck!
  • See Bubble Charts: Risk Prevention & Value Pick.

Singapore REIT NAV Gearing Distribution Yield Comparison Table 12-Dec-2013

Find out how do I conduct research on Singapore REIT, how I color code and interpret those financial ratio in the comparison table, and why am I NOT touching any REIT at the moment although some REITs are undervalue. Find out WHERE and HOW to read the FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trust Index because timing is very critical in making any investment decision.  Check out my next public tutorial on  “How to pick Singapore REIT for Dividend Investing” .

Continue ReadingSingapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table – 12 Dec 2013

Singapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table – 9 Nov 2013

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FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT) Index changes from 735.74 to 740.76 compare to last post on Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Oct 12, 2013. The index is still trading below 200D SMA and technically bearish. However, there is sign of potential reversal if the index break the recent high of 750 as it will be forming an Inverted Head and Shoulders, a reversal chart pattern. Currently the index has moved out from the down trend channel and trading sideway. 750 is the resistance to watch. Fundamentally there is still a fear of interest hike in near future which dampen the investment sentiment in REIT.

FTSE ST REIT Index Nov8-2013

Compare to last Singapore REIT comparison table:

  • Price/NAV increases from 1.018 to 1.0213.
  • Dividend Yield decreases from  6.23% to 6.15%.
  • Gearing Ratio reduced from 33.07% to 32.92%.
  • In general, Singapore REIT is at the Fair Value and the distribution yield is reasonable. However technically Singapore REIT is in the bearish territory and in consolidation phase. So do not expect any big stock price upward movement for capital gain.  The uncertainty in term of interest hike in near future remains high and this causes limited upside potential for Singapore REITs or even wipe out your initial capital invested in REIT. Invest safe and this is not the time to be hero in REIT investing until the cloud is clearer. More importantly investors must know how to GET OUT if the charts turn bearish and start another down trend again.

Singapore REIT NAV Gearing Distribution Yield Comparison Table 9-Nov-2013

 

Find out how do I conduct research on Singapore REIT, how to interpret those financial ratio in the comparison table, when is the best time to buy using simple Trend Analysis. Furthermore it is important to understand the BIGGER TREND so that your investment will not be losing money in the down trend market. Find out WHERE and HOW to read the FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trust Index because timing is very critical in making any investment decision.  Check out my next public tutorial on  “How to pick Singapore REIT for Dividend Investing” .

Continue ReadingSingapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table – 9 Nov 2013