- 20D MA crosses up 50D MA – A bullish sign.
- Whether FRE & FNM can stay above the 200D MA
- Whether FRE & FNM can show a higher high & higher low uptrend pattern.
FRE & FNM broke the critical support level (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level) after a KBW analyst downgraded the two to the firm’s lowest rating, cut price targets on both stocks to zero from $1. KBW said their common and preferred shares would be “worthless” given the nearly $100 billion they will continue to owe the government, even if recapitalized. FRE broke the critical support level of $1.705 and FNM broke $1.483 support level. Both stocks are below the 20D & 50D MA, all other technical indicators show bearish convergence.
I bought FRE & FNM at about $0.60 and I have made 150% paper gains for these two stocks to date. Despite getting frequent reminders from my buddy to take profit, I am sticking to my original trading plan.
My trading plan
• Stock price target: $25 (FRE historical high is about $70, FNM is about $80)
• Time frame: 3 to 5 years
• 4200% (from $1,000 to $42,000) each stock
• I can lose EVERYTHING if FRE & FNM bankrupt or delisted from the stock exchange due to company re-structuring to clear all the bad debts & toxic assets! I am prepared to lose a total sum of $2,000 on FRE & FNM when I first buy the stocks.
My Risks Assessment on why I think this is a good bet!
(This is more like a gambling instead of calling it as investment!)
Thus, in my opinion, FRE & FNM are good investment with calculated risks. The profit potential is extremely handsome even though it does not reach my price target. Of course, the assumption is they will not get de-listed during my investment time frame. Hope Murphy’s law does not applied here!