Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS8670)

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased slightly from 822.03 to 828.26 (+0.76%) compared to last month update. Currently the REIT index is currently back in trading on sideway consolidation, after recovered from a sudden sell off last few weeks.

• As for now, Short term direction: Sideway, until breakout of the resistance (starts up trend) or breakdown of the support (starts down trend).
• Immediate Support at 819
• Immediate Resistance at 852, followed by 874.

Previous chart on FTSE ST REIT index can be found in the last post Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Oct 24, 2020.

Fundamental Analysis of 40 Singapore REITs

The following is the compilation of 40 REITs in Singapore with colour coding of the Distribution Yield, Gearing Ratio and Price to NAV Ratio.

• Note 1: The Financial Ratio are based on past data and there are lagging indicators.
• Note 2: This REIT table takes into account the dividend cuts due to COVID-19 outbreak. Yield is calculated trailing twelve months (ttm), therefore REITs with delayed payouts might have lower displayed yields, thus yield displayed might be lower.
• Note 3: All REITs in Singapore have already released the Q3 earnings or provide latest business  update.
• Note 4: Capital Mall Trust has merged with Capitaland Commercial Trust and has became Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust (C38U). Capitaland Commercial Trust is delisted.

• Price/NAV increased from 0.92 to 0.95 (Singapore Overall REIT sector is undervalued now).
• TTM Distribution Yield further decreased from 6.82% to 5.50% (after Q3 earning release after factoring in the dividend cut impact caused by COVID-19). About 27.5% of Singapore REITs (11 out of 40) have Distribution Yield > 7%. Do note that these yield numbers are based on current prices taking into account the delayed distribution/dividend cuts due to COVID-19.
• Gearing Ratio increases from 36.68% to 37.63%.  In general, Singapore REITs sector gearing ratio is healthy but started to increase as the reduction of the valuation of the portfolio and increase in borrowing.
• The most overvalued REITs are Keppel DC REIT (Price/NAV = 2.49), followed by Parkway Life (Price/NAV = 2.02), Mapletree Industrial Trust (Price/NAV = 1.78), Mapletree Logistic Trust (Price/NAV = 1.64) and Ascendas REIT (Price/NAV = 1.41).
• The most undervalued REITs (based on NAV) are Eagle Hospitality Trust* (Price/NAV =0.17), followed by Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (Price/NAV = 0.30), ARA Hospitality Trust (Price/NAV = 0.49), First REIT (Price/NAV = 0.45), Starhill Global (Price/NAV = 0.58), BHG REIT (Price/NAV = 0.66) and  Sabana REIT (Price/NAV = 0.69).
• The Highest Distribution Yield (TTM) is First REIT (12.55%), followed by Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (9.88%), KepPacOak US REIT (8.81%), ARA LOGOS Logistic Trust (8.53%), Cromwell European REIT (7.77%) and ESR REIT (7.69%) and . Reminder that these yield numbers are based on current prices taking into account delayed distribution/dividend cuts due to COVID-19. Some REITs opted for semi annual reporting and thus no quarterly DPU was announced.
• The Highest Gearing Ratio REITs are Eagle Hospitality Trust (65.5%), ARA US Hospitality Trust (43%), Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (42.5%), ESR REIT (41.6%), Suntec REIT (41.5%), ARA Logos Log Trust (40.5%) (previously Cache Log Trust), OUE Commercial REIT (40.3%) and Mapletree NAC Trust (40.1%)
• Total Singapore REIT Market Capitalisation = S$99.3 Billion.
• Top 5 REITs with biggest market capitalisation are Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust ($12.81B), Ascendas REIT ($11.26B), Mapletree Industrial Trust ($7.08B), Mapletree Logistics Trust ($8.14B) and Mapletree Commercial Trust ($6.73B).
• The bottom 5 REITs with smallest market capitalisation are Eagle Hospitality Trust ($119M), BHG Retail REIT ($281M), United Hamsphire REIT ($286M), ARA Hospitality Trust ($278M) and Elite Commercial REIT ($392M)
• *Eagle Hospitality Trust is currently suspended

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. To learn how to use the table and make investing decision, Sign up next REIT Investing Workshop here to learn how to choose a fundamentally strong REIT for long term investing for passive income generation.

Top 20 Performance of the Month (Source: https://stocks.cafe/kenny/advanced)

SG 10 Year & US 10 Year Government Bond Yield

• SG 10 Year: 0.925%
• US 10 Year: 0.86%

Summary

Fundamentally the whole Singapore REITs is undervalued now based on simple average on the Price/NAV. Below is the market cap heat map for the past 1 month. We can see from here there was a rotation from Industrial sector to Hospitality & Retail sectors due to the latest news on the vaccines readiness.

(Source: https://stocks.cafe/kenny/overview)

Retail & Hospitality sectors, small & medium cap REITs are very attractive based on the NAV (20% to 40% to fair value). However, do take note that NAV would probably be adjusted downward caused by the devaluation of property value. We have already seen the NAV of some REITs are adjusted downward and the increase of gearing ratio, from the latest earning release or business update.

Yield spread (reference to 10 year Singapore government bond of 0.925%) tightened from 5.82%. to 4.575% due to drop in TTM DPU. However, the risk premium are still attractive to accumulate Singapore REITs in stages to lock in the current price and long term yield after the recovery.

Technically the REIT Index is still trading on sideway consolidation with low volatility until the breakout. Current macro factors such as low interest rate environment and recovery of global economic support the bullish breakout.

Note: This above analysis is for my own personal research and it is NOT a buy or sell recommendation. Investors who would like to leverage on my extensive research and years on REIT investing experience can approach me separately for REIT Portfolio Consultation.

Kenny Loh is a Senior Consultant and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also invited speaker of REITs Symposium and Invest Fair.  You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement