Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMIR): Undervalue REIT for Dividend Investing

Lippo Mall REIT

  • Last Done Price: $0.39
  • NAV: $0.5969
  • Price / NAV: 0.6534
  • Dividend Yield: 9.86%
  • Gearing Ratio: 8.7%

Summary: Undervalue, high distribution yield and strong balance sheet.

 Comparison Tables with other REITs in Singapore.

Weekly chart for Lippo Malls


This Post Has 12 Comments

  1. Ray168

    What does Price / NAV of 0.65 means? How do you determine the Reit is under value?

    Thanks in advance.

  2. Marubozu

    NAV = Net Asset Value = Net Asset – Net Liabilities.
    Price / NAV = =$0.39/$0.5069 = 0.65 means the current stock price is 35% below the NAV.

    Put it in a layman term:
    (1) Assuming you bought a condo of Net Value of $1,000,000 (assuming minus all the stamp duty, lawyer fee, etc) with 10 friends, everyone contributes $100,000. Each share of the condo worth $100,000.
    (2) Let’s say one day one of your friend has financial difficulty and wants to sell his shares. However, nobody want to buy his shares unless he is willing to offer 35% discount ($65,000). You finally decide to use $65,000 to buy his shares which worth $100,000. You are buying the under value shares at 35% discount.

    Hope this explanation helps. Please note that I am using a simple NAV method to determine whether this REIT is under value or not. There are other valuation models like DDM (Discounted Dividend Model) which may give you different valuation.

  3. Marubozu

    LMIR Trust: 1Q2012 Gross Revenue Up 39.0% To S$45.6 Million.

    – Q2012 distributable Income Up 18.5% to S$15.0 million. Full quarter contributions from two newly acquired properties.
    – Strong balance sheet provides LMIR Trust with ample financial flexibility to fund future growth.
    – High occupancy rate of 94.5% underpinned by strong interest from international and local retailers for quality retail spaces..

  4. THV

    Been reading up on your site for some time. Especially interested in your REITs insight, as such just wondering do you still think Lippomalls is still undervalued and worth getting considering their DPU drop after their rights issue last year.

    And going forward how do you see the potential for this reit and whether is it worth holding on to. Its share price seem to fall significantly after their rights issue which makes me worried. Would love to hear from you.

  5. Marubozu

    Hi THV,
    It depends how you do the valuation and do comparison with other REITs. Lippo Malls stock price drops also after the right issue which also affect the Distribution Yield and NAV. You need to use new numbers to do the calculation and comparison. I am posting the REIT summary every month and you can take a look at those new ratios.

    Personally I see potential (or catalysts) in Lippo Malls REIT for the following reasons (you can find those information in the Annual Report):
    (1) Indonesia GDP Growth Story
    (2) Indonesia population (i.e. internal consumption)
    (3) Number of Retail Malls in Indonesia compare to the population.

    (1) Country Risk – Political stability and Government Policy (Indonesia Tax, property rules, Foreign Investment related law, etc)
    (2) Currency Risk

    Besides looking at the potential, analyse those risks also (can be found in Risk Disclosure in the Annual Report) to see whether your own risk appetite can handle it. You can only judge by yourself those “what if” risk scenarios and no one can help you.

    Hope it helps.


  6. Andy Quak


    are there info to compute the projected 2Q DPU & expected yield for FY2012?

    other than the 2 new rental income, are there other new rentals coming onstream in @Q2012 & forward? based on 1Q2012 DPU=0.69cts & if there are no new accretive rentals. the yield is just 7.46% at 37cts, extremely low relative to AIMSAMP REIT & First REIT for similar risk.



  7. Marubozu

    You can use the past 8 quarters DPU to project the future DPU using CAGR but it is not accurate in this case due to the new acquisition. You can use the last Q to project next Q’s DPU because it should be more or less the same.
    Expected Yield = (Recent Quarter DPU x 4) / Share Price
    Assumption DPU remains constant for the next 4 quarters.

    If you read the management report, they did not mention about any new acquisitions and there should not have any additional rental incomes.

    For me, 7.46% yield is good for me base on my risk profile.

    AIMS AMPI REIT does not meet my criteria because:
    (1) High Gearing up to 30%. DPU will be impacted if interest rate goes up and the share price will drop when this REIT issues right for their working capital or any new acquisition.
    (2) Recent Announcement made me think this REIT may not be able to generate enough cash flow to pay the unit holders. This is not sustainable in the long term and may cut DPU in future.
    (a) AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT Management Limited (the “Company”), as Manager (the“Manager”) of AIMSAMPIREIT, wishes to announce that 1,685,917 new units in AIMSAMPIREIT
    (“Units”) have been issued to the Company today. The Units were issued at an issue price of S$1.1139 per Unit, as payment for the performance component of the Manager’s management fee for
    the year ended 31 March 2012.
    (b) Further to the announcement dated 20 April 2012 by AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT Management Limited, as manager of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (“AIMSAMPIREIT” and as manager of AIMSAMPIREIT, the “Manager”) in relation to the application of a distribution reinvestment plan (the “AIMSAMPIREIT DRP”) to the
    distribution of 2.70 cents per unit in AIMSAMPIREIT (“Unit”) for the financial period from 1 January 2012 to 31 March 2012 (the “4Q FY2012 Distribution”), the Manager wishes to announce that the issue price of the new Units in AIMSAMPIREIT to be issued pursuant to the AIMSAMPIREIT DRP (the “DRP Units”) in respect of the 4Q FY2012 Distribution is S$1.1622 per Unit.
    (c) AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT Management Limited (the “Company”), as Manager of AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (“AIMSAMPIREIT”), wishes to announce that on 19 October 2011, the Company sold 716,500 units in AIMSAMPIREIT (“Units”) at S$0.965 per
    Unit to partially fund payment of the final dividends to shareholders.

    As for FIRST REIT, current price is not under value base on NAV. The down side risk is higher than upside potential.

    For REIT investment, you cannot just look at yield only to make decision. It does not make sense to have good DPU yield but loss money in the share price.


    Disclaimer: The above comment base on my own analysis only. This is not a make or buy recommendation and I hold no liability and responsibility in any investment decision the readers made.

  8. Ray

    August 2012 trading range 42-44 cents. Do you think the yield will be able to stay above 7%. Thanks.

  9. Marubozu

    If there is no change in fundamental and macro-economy in Indonesia, and no sudden announcement on the right issue (unlikely due to low gearing), no sudden crash in the stock market, the answer is yes. Suggest you do your own research because there is no such thing called guarantee in the stock market. You must know the risks when you put your money in the stock.

  10. Simon

    Any updates on fundamentals of LMIRT since the acquisition of 4 malls?

    How do you think the management are doing.

    Also Lippo group is buying F&N stake with OUE, do you think they will dump lousy assets into LMIRT since they are parent company?

  11. Marubozu

    Tommy, you may want to look at Distribution per Unit (DPU) instead of EPS for REIT. You can look at their Quarterly earning presentation to see how they derive at the number.

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