Cosco – Breaking Out from a Falling Wedge?

Can this breakout successful from a Falling Wedge? Target Price for successful breakout is $1.30.

Things to watch out:

  • 20D Crosses 50D MA to show the bullish strength.
  • Return of the trading volume.
  • The next higher high has to be more than $1.15 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level) to show an uptrend. A higher low has been formed ($1.05 with reference to $1.00).

UNG – Going To Reverse The Trend!

UNG is showing signs of reversing a down trend to up trend. Technically & fundamentally (economy perspective) this Natural Gas ETF is due for a long term up trend. I summarise my Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis as below:

Fundamental Analysis (Economic Perspective)

  • Economy has started to recover. The demand of natural gas will increase due to increasing economy activities like manufacturing, transportation likes car and truck, cold winter, etc.
  • Natural gas is another sort of popular green energy to be used widely in future where the world is determine to cut emissions of greenhouse gases.
  • Natural gas will be part of the energy substitution to petrol for all the car users.
  • Due to the low economy activities during the recession, natural gas is over supply and thus, there is no more natural gas storage space left. The major gas producers are now being forced to cut production; a move which may actually be beneficial to the industry as a whole as it will likely help boost prices, thus restoring margins for many producers.

Technical Analysis (Base on Chart Patterns)

  • A double bottom (or inverted head and shoulders) has been formed.
  • UNG broke out from the falling wedge resistance with increase in trading volume.

Things to look out for

  • The falling wedge resistance turns support, i.e. the stock price does not return to the falling wedge.
  • UNG breaks the $12.25 resistance (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level). This level is also probably the 200D MA if I extrapolate the 200D MA line.
  • The next lower low does not happen below $8.50 (historial low!)
  • 20D crosses over 50D MA.

Jaya Holding – Is This Time Real?

Jaya Holding closed today at $0.495 with a opening marubozu candle with a spike in volume and breaks out from a Symmetrical Triangle. However, it remain to be seen whether this is a successful breakout due to the past 3 attempts. One thing to note that the spike in volume in diminishing compares to the previos one, and this is not a sign for a bullish & sustainable breakout. The past three spikes in the stock price were not sustainable due to lack of volume for the next few days. If this breakout is successful, the price target is $0.58.