China Zaino – Fundamental & Intrinsic Value

  • Post author:

Base on Q2, 2009 financial report:

  • PE = 3.5
  • Dividend Yield = 5.8%
  • NAV = $0.288
  • Net Earning = 15.6% (18.3% in 2008)
  • Current Ratio = 5.7
  • ROA = 31.7% (Base on 2008 Full Year)
  • ROE = 36.3% (base on 2008 Full Year)
  • Cash Flow = S$199.8 Million (27% increase with reference to 2008 Full Year)

  Stock Background

  • 3 years historal high = $0.615
  • Current Price = $0.30 (only 49% of 3 years high)
 

Intrinsic Value Calculation

PE Model

  • Fair value PE = 15, intrinsic value= $1.23 (base on EPS $0.08185)
  • PEG = 0.24 (it looks like super under value!)

DCF Model

  • Growth Rate = 15% (capped)
  • Discount Rate = 5%
  • Number of Shares = 945 million
  • 2008A Net Operating Cash Flow = S$55.893 million, intrinsic value = $1.01

Discounted EPS Model

  • Growth Rate = 15% (capped)
  • Discount Rate = 5%
  • 2009F EPS = $0.08185
  • Intrinsic Value = $1.40

Intrinsic Value for China Zaino (the most conservative number of the three numbers) = $1.01 (Current price is 70% discount to the intrinsic value!)

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China HongXing – Fundamental & Intrinsic Value

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Base on Q2, 2009 financial report:

PE = 7.1
Dividend Yield = 1.2%
NAV = $0.3359
Net Earning = 9.7% (15.5% in 2008)
Current Ratio = 25.02
ROA = 10.2% (Base on 2008 Full Year)
ROE = 11.6% (base on 2008 Full Year)
Cash Flow = S$520.7Million (33.4% increase with reference to 2008 Full Year)


Stock Background
3 years historal high = $1.42
Current Price = $0.225 (only 16% of 3 years high)


Intrinsic Value Calculation
EPS Annual Growth = 15% (from 2005A to 2008A)
Discount Rate = 5%
Intrinsic Value = $0.54 (58% Discount of Current Price to Intrinsic Value)

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Hongguo’s Fundamental & Intrinsic Value

  • Post author:

Base on Q2, 2009 financial report:

  • PE = 5.8
  • Dividend Yield = 4.3%
  • NAV = $0.3438
  • Net Earning = 7.8% (12% in 2008)
  • Current Ratio = 3.72
  • ROA = 13.6% (Base on 2008 Full Year)
  • ROE = 18.5% (base on 2008 Full Year)
  • Cash Flow = S$46.3Million (103% increase with reference to 2008 Full Year)

 Stock Background 

  • 3 years historal high = $1.46
  • Current Price = $0.31 (only 21% of 3 years high)

 Intrinsic Value Calculation 

  • EPS Annual Growth = 12% (from 2004A to 2009F)
  • Discount Rate = 5%
  • Intrinsic Value = $0.73 (58% Discount of Current Price to Intrinsic Value)
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