China HongXing – Fundamental & Intrinsic Value

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Base on Q2, 2009 financial report:

PE = 7.1
Dividend Yield = 1.2%
NAV = $0.3359
Net Earning = 9.7% (15.5% in 2008)
Current Ratio = 25.02
ROA = 10.2% (Base on 2008 Full Year)
ROE = 11.6% (base on 2008 Full Year)
Cash Flow = S$520.7Million (33.4% increase with reference to 2008 Full Year)


Stock Background
3 years historal high = $1.42
Current Price = $0.225 (only 16% of 3 years high)


Intrinsic Value Calculation
EPS Annual Growth = 15% (from 2005A to 2008A)
Discount Rate = 5%
Intrinsic Value = $0.54 (58% Discount of Current Price to Intrinsic Value)

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China HongXing & Jaya Holding – Another observations with one-lot trading!

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China HongXing & Jaya Holding shown one lotter trading today but ended with different results today. I summarised the similarities of one-lot trading for Raffles Education, China HongXing & Jaya Holding as below:

  1. All three stocks’ prices are testing their support levels.
  2. One-lot trading starts at about 10:00am and about 3:30pm (except Jaya ends at 2:30pm today). I guess the professionals monitor the 1st hour of market movement before entering the trade at 10:00am. At 3:30pm, the professionals summarize the trade sitution before deciding the next step (either to enter a big position or abandon the trade). Three different outcomes for Raffles Education, China HongXing and Jaya Holding. Raffles Education ended the day with one white long candle; China HongXing ended with a doji but with a preclose volume of 2337 lots (big fish!); Jaya Holding ended with a short black candle (no big fish at preclose).

China HongXing One Lot Trading Summary (Sept 18, 2009)
China HongXing is swinging inside the channel, the channel support is between $0.215 and $0.22. If the price does not break this support level, the channel and uptrend is still intact and the price may go up to $0.27 & $0.28.

The one lot trading started at 10:08am testing $0.225 and later $0.22 for the whole day.

The one lot trading ended at about 3:23pm and at the preclose one big fish bought 2337 lots to close the day. The price did not go up at the end of the day but it fullfilled my hypothesis that someone would enter big trade near the end of the trading session.
Jaya Holding One Lot Trading Summary (Sept 18, 2009)

Jaya Holding is testing its 20D MA support at $0.47.

The one-lot trading started at about 10am testing the support of $0.47 and ended at about 2:30pm at the level $0.465.
It looked like $0.47 support was not strong enough and the professionals stopped the testing at 2:30pm and abandoned the trade after all. There was no big entry at the end of the trading session. The stock price closed at $0.465.
 
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China HongXing – Swinging in the channel?

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China HongXing demonstrated a similar trend like Synear. Today the stock closed at $0.25 with a gravestone doji (end of the short term up trend) where the bear tried to push the price back to the channel. If the stock price returns to the channel and starts the retracement,  I will target to enter the trade at $0.21 and exit at $0.26 with a profit target of 24% within a two weeks trade.

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