Singapore Exchange (SGX): Bearish Long Term Outlook

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SGX is still trading within a long term Broaden Descending Wedge (Green). In a medium term, SGX has formed a Descending Triangle (Blue) in 3 months.  Currently SGX is testing the Descending Triangle’s resistance (at about $7.596) but this resistance is quite challenging to be broken as it is also combination of 20D MA, 50D MA and 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level). Also take note that “Lower High, Lower Low” pattern have been formed on the chart and SGX looks bearish in the long term. Upside potential is capped at about $7.85 which is also the 200D MA. 200D MA line has also started the down trend and that is another reason to be concerned. My price target for the breakdown remain to be the same, which is $6.30 or lower for the time being.

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SGX – On Down Trend

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SGX has broken 4 supports (20D MA, 50D MA, 200D MA and 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level) in one week. Base on the chart pattern, SGX seems to trading in a slow down trend as the new low is always trading lower than previous low.

Key levels to watch:

  • SGX may rebound from $7.701 (78.6% FR level) but it is important to see whether SGX can break the 50D MA resistance (at about $7.90). Base on the current sentiment in financial sectors and Eurean PIGS debt crisis, it is unlikely to happen base on my opinion. However, I can only trust the chart more than my opinion base on my last lesson learnt.
  • If $7.701 support is broken, the near term support is the down trend support at about $7.30. This support may not be strong because it is not very obvious. SGX may go down to $6.878 (61.8% Fibobacci Retracement Level) if this weak down trend support is broken.

In summary, SGX chart is bearish and I am waiting for a clear reversal pattern to pick up this blue chip.

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