SPH broke all 3 key supports (20D MA, 50D MA and up trend support) in last trading week. The stock price is approacing $3.736 which is 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Support Level. There may be a small rebound in the coming week from this support level.  However, if SPH cannot go above $3.90 (the uptrend support and 50D MA), the next important support to watch is 200D MA at about $3.70. SPH may go as low as $3.395 if this 200D MA support is broken.

SPH seems to have broken below the 9 months uptrend support, 20D and 50D MA support with a spike in volume.  Below chart plotted base on Fibonacci Level on uptrend since Mar 2009.

• Base on two different perspective, critical support level for SPH is between $3.565 (50% Fibonacci Level on 2nd chart) to $3.597 (61.8% Fibonacci Level on 1st chart, gray color). I simplify it to $3.58 as a critical level to watch.
• Next critical support is between $3.271 (61.8% Fibonacci Level on 2nd chart) to $3.352 (61.8% Fibonacci Level on 1st chart, blue color). I simplify it to $3.31 as a critical level to watch.
• SPH closing price for today is $3.74.

Last Friday SPH closed at $3.70 and I started to regret that I exit the trade too early. I bought SPH at about $3.05 and sold all at $3.48. I should have hold the stocks for a longer period.

My mistakes from this trade:

• I let my emotion to take charge of my decision. I had worries that STI would soon be corrected and turned bearish in Sept. I can’t control my fear and decide to off load my positions.
• I did not look at the chart before making my decision to sell. I would not have sold my SPH shares if I plot the chart earlier. The stock price was moving inside the channel and on the up trend. I should have sold the shares when the price hit the upper channel resistance instead of sold at the dip!

• SPH is a defensive stock with low beta which response slower to the STI correction. In addition, investors will switch to defensive stocks when there is a market correction.

Fortunately I did not lose money in this trade but this was a really good lesson for me to perfect my entry and exit timing in future.