Citigroup (C): On Uptrend Channel

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Citigroup is currently trading within an up trend channel. It is expected to see C continues the bullish trend after rebounding from the channel support (also the 61.8% FR) with a hammer candlestick.

Fundamentally, the valuation of C looks attractive from PE ratio, PEG and P/B perspective.

Key Statistics for C

Current P/E Ratio (ttm) 10.4408
Estimated P/E(12/2013) 9.0153
Relative P/E vs. SPX 0.7044
Earnings Per Share (USD) (ttm) 3.9700
Est. EPS (USD) (12/2013) 4.5800
Est. PEG Ratio 0.9199
Market Cap (M USD) 125,548.21
Shares Outstanding (M) 3,028.90
30 Day Average Volume 30,836,774
Price/Book (mrq) 0.6732
Price/Sale (ttm) 1.3370
Dividend Indicated Gross Yield 0.10%
Cash Dividend (USD) 0.0100
Last Dividend 01/31/2013
5 Year Dividend Growth -70.97%
Next Earnings Announcement 04/16/2013
Continue ReadingCitigroup (C): On Uptrend Channel

Gold ETF (GLD): Bearish Down Trend!

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GLD has just broken down from a Symmetrical Triangle and currently trading in a down trend channel with breakout price target of $150. GLD is technically bearish as the ETF is trading below 20D, 50D and 200D SMA, and also trading in “Lower High, Lower Low” chart pattern.

Traditionally GLD is bearish in the month of March base on past 8 years statistic with reliability of 75%. Base on chart pattern and past historical data, shorting GLD in Mar is a much higher probability trade than longing GLD.

There are a few ways to short Gold:
(1) Long Put Option on GLD
(2) Short Call Vertical Spread Option on GLD
(3) Long GLL (ProShares Ultrashort Gold ETF). – ProShares UltraShort Gold seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times the inverse (-2x) of the daily performance of gold bullion as measured by the U.S. Dollar fixing price for delivery in London.



Continue ReadingGold ETF (GLD): Bearish Down Trend!

Apple (AAPL) Super Under Value Stock But Don’t Catch the Falling Knife!

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Don’t catch the falling knife although Apple (AAPL) is super under value now. Sarcastically most Analysts have a BUY or OVERWEIGHT call on AAPL but downgrade the target price. You are going to lose money if you just follow blindly the recommendation of the analysts. This is a classic example of combining Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, Analyst Recommendation and the interpretation of Target Price, and develop a Trading Plan or Investment Plan.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Last Traded Price = $439.88
  • Current PE = 9.96
  • Forward PE = 7.73
  • PEG = 0.48
  • P/B = 3.49
  • Current Ratio = 1.50
  • Debt / Equity = 0
  • ROA = 28.54%
  • ROE = 42.84%

Using DCF Valuation Method

  • Intrinsic Value (7% annual growth rate for the next 10 years) = $713.54
  • Intrinsic Value (12% annual growth rate for the next 10 years) = $918.80
  • Operating Cash Flow = $56,728 Million
  • No. of Shares Outstanding = 939.06 Million
  • Beta = 1.08
  • Discount Rate = 5%
  • Debt per Share = 0
  • Cash per Share = $42.40
 
Technical Analysis
  • AAPL breakdown from a Falling Wedge with Price Target of about $400 (short term).
  • AAPL also breakdown from a Head & Shoulders with neckline at $525 and the price target is $350 (long term).
  • Currently AAPL is trading down trend below 20D, 50D and 200D SMA.
 

Last Analysis on AAPL.

Last Intrinsic Calculation for AAPL.

 

Recent Upgrade / Downgrade

24-Jan-13 Reiterated UBS Buy $650 → $600
24-Jan-13 Reiterated RBC Capital Mkts Outperform $725 → $600
24-Jan-13 Reiterated Oppenheimer Outperform $800 → $600
24-Jan-13 Reiterated Mizuho Buy $600 → $575
24-Jan-13 Reiterated ISI Group Strong Buy $710 → $600
24-Jan-13 Reiterated Deutsche Bank Buy $800 → $575
24-Jan-13 Reiterated Barclays Overweight $740 → $575
23-Jan-13 Reiterated FBR Capital Outperform $725 → $675
22-Jan-13 Reiterated UBS Buy $700 → $650
22-Jan-13 Reiterated Monness Crespi & Hardt Buy $750 → $670
16-Jan-13 Reiterated Stifel Nicolaus Buy $825 → $725
07-Jan-13 Reiterated Barclays Overweight $800 → $740
21-Dec-12 Reiterated RBC Capital Mkts Outperform $750 → $725
17-Dec-12 Reiterated Mizuho Buy $750 → $600
17-Dec-12 Reiterated Canaccord Genuity Buy $800 → $750
14-Dec-12 Reiterated UBS Buy $780 → $700

 

Analyst Recommendation

 

Continue ReadingApple (AAPL) Super Under Value Stock But Don’t Catch the Falling Knife!