Big US Banks (JPM, C, RY, BAC) With Nice Charts

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Commentary:

Four big name banking stocks have been flying higher recently, all up between 13 and 39% in the last three months. While the upward progress is continuing in two, the other two stocks have paused in a sideways consolidation. Ultimately, the question is whether the uptrend is going to continue? Technical analysis is not always a crystal ball, but by using simple tools you can determine when the trend is strong and when it is not.

 

 
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM)
 
 

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) is up 22.06% in the last three months, and as of October 16 continued to forge upward hitting the highest price ($43.11) seen in five months. The uptrend is well defined since the 2012 low of $30.83 in June, and a trend channel signals an area of resistance from $44 to $45. Just beyond this is the 52-week high at $46.49. Created by a trendline in July is support at $40, and a drop below it will likely push the price to the next trendline and support region at $37.30 to $36.40. Traders will look to pick up the stock long on pull-backs that hold above support; dropping below support is a sign a decline may be coming.

SEE: Technical Analysis: Support And Resistance

 

 

Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE:C)
 
 

As of the $37.40 close on October 16, Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE:C) is up 38.94% in the last three months. Volume pushed higher on the October 15 and the next day as well, showing interest in the stock. Resistance is close by at the 52-week high of $38.40. A divergence on the RSI shows that momentum may be dying, making the volume burst look more like a trend finale rather than a sustainable buying boom. If the price moves above the 52-week high, resistance is expected between $40 and $41, with $40 being the price target for those that are long. A drop below $34 is the first sign that the stock may be weakening; moving below $32 will likely result in a further decline.

SEE: Momentum And The Relative Strength Index

 

 

Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE:RY)
 
 

Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE:RY) is up 13.86% over the last three months, as of the October 16 close. Most of the gain came in August and in early September, but the stock has moved sideways since then. The 52-week high is at $59.60 and is at the closest pivotal level, with a rise above it indicating a breakout of the current range and a continuation of the uptrend. Divergence on the RSI over the last two months, warns that an upside breakout may not occur, and if it does it might not last. Support is at $56.50, and if the price drops below it there is little support until $54 to $53 where the trendline which began in June intersects.

SEE: The Anatomy Of Trading Breakouts

 

 

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC)
 
 

The stock of Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC) has also been moving more sideways since creating a swing high at $9.79 in mid-September. If the price rallies above that high, it is a positive sign giving a target of $10.75. The 52-week high is at $10.10, a key level to watch if the upside breakout occurs. Support is provided by the short-term range at $8.70. A downside breakout gives a target of $7.75, but could go lower as key support is not until the $7 area.

 

 
Bottom Line:

Price movement is the ultimate tool, as it is unwise to fight a trend. These banking stocks have been pushing higher for the last three months, and may continue to surge. Dropping through the support areas warns that the trend may be weakening. However, if the price pulls back toward support without breaking through it, such occurrences are often buying opportunities. Trends and trend channels provide levels to buy or sell, and an RSI indicator can help determine the strength of a trend, but its signals should not be acted on in isolation.

 
Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com

At the time of writing, Cory Mitchell did not own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this article.

 
Continue ReadingBig US Banks (JPM, C, RY, BAC) With Nice Charts

Oil Stocks (PBR, SLB, PSX) And ETF (USO) Outlook

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Commentary:

The price of oil plays a key role in many industries, and has the potential to impact stock prices. Yet not all oil sector stocks are directly related to the price of oil, and often have their own technical outlooks and opportunities, independent of what the price of oil is doing. Looking first at the price of oil, as represented by an exchange traded fund (ETF), we will then look at three major oil stocks from varying industries relating to the oil sector.

 

 
United States Oil (ARCA:USO)
 
 

The United States Oil (ARCA:USO) stock rose in July and August, but stalled and pulled back in mid-September. Resistance is at $35 and support at is $32.50 – the price range the ETF has been in since September 19. A breakout of that range indicates the short-term direction of the ETF. A rally above $35 points to a move towards $36, and if the ETF can keep rallying through $37.17 (September 14 high), it signifies that the ETF is in the midst of a longer-term uptrend. On the other hand, a drop back below $32.50 is bearish, with the potential to move to the $29.02 June low, and possibly lower as the longer-term downtrend since March continues.

SEE: Technical Analysis: Support And Resistance

 

 

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A-Petro (NYSE:PBR)
 
 

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A-Petro (NYSE:PBR), the large Brazilian drilling and exploration company, fell aggressively from the 52-week high of $32.60 in February to a $17.27 52-week low in June. Since the low though, the stock has been pushing higher and is currently within a flag formation – traditionally a continuation pattern. Since mid-September the stock has had little volatility as it moves sideways with a slight downward bias. A breakout above that sideways range (flag) at $23.70 indicates another pop higher in the stock, with a target of $26 to $26.50. A sharp drop nullifies the flag pattern and is likely to be bearish since the long-term trend remains down.

SEE: Continuation Patterns: An Introduction

 

 

Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB)
 
 

Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB) is an oil and gas equipment and services provider which has been in a “ranging” mode going back to the latter part of 2011. Tapping out near $80 to $81, this is has been the area to short or sell the stock over the last year. A breakout above this region is likely to cause a buying surge though, with a target of $100. A good buy point for the range has been $60 to $65, but a drop below $59 could the send the stock toward $50.

SEE: The Anatomy Of Trading Breakouts

 

 

Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX)
 
 

Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX), an oil and gas refining and marketing company, has been rallying since May when it began trading. Since mid-September the stock has moved sideways in a tight range. The breakout of the range indicates the direction of the stock over the coming weeks and potentially over the coming months. A rise above $48.22 keeps the uptrend going, with a target of $52 or higher. If the price drops below $44, a fall toward support at $40 is probable. Dropping below $40 draws the overall uptrend in question.

 

 

 

 
Bottom Line:

All of the aforementioned oil related stocks are worth trading, but each come with a different trading opportunity. Traders should trade with an ideal trend, but trendlines as well as support and resistance can be used to determine when the tide may be changing. Due to the global nature of oil, oil stocks and ETFs can move quickly and aggressively, therefore, be aware of and always manage your risk.

 
Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com

At the time of writing, Cory Mitchell did not own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this article.

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SPDR Gold (GLD): Getting Near 261.8% Fibonacci Extension Target

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GLD is getting very near to 261.8% FR now. Current Level is $171.9. This $173.76 is also the Resistance for the past 2 years. 

  • Daily Candle showing Bearish Harami. 
  • 2/5 EMA is still bullish on both Daily and Weekly Chart.
  • Expect retracement at this tough resistance.

 

See Previous Analysis. 261.8% FR was redrawn in this post.

Continue ReadingSPDR Gold (GLD): Getting Near 261.8% Fibonacci Extension Target