FRE & FNM – Broke the critical support level!

  • Post author:

FRE & FNM broke the critical support level (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level) after a KBW analyst downgraded the two to the firm’s lowest rating, cut price targets on both stocks to zero from $1. KBW said their common and preferred shares would be “worthless” given the nearly $100 billion they will continue to owe the government, even if recapitalized. FRE broke the critical support level of $1.705 and FNM broke $1.483 support level. Both stocks are below the 20D & 50D MA, all other technical indicators show bearish convergence.

I sold all my stocks to take profit after sighting a bearish convergence signal. I plan to buy back at a lower price when the down trend ends. I think the US government will continue to run the companies, and the companies will not go bankrupt. However, the value of their common and preferred equity will probably be re-capitalized. Thus, buying at a very low price limits the downside risk.
Continue ReadingFRE & FNM – Broke the critical support level!

Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rides on semiconductor growth in 2010

  • Post author:

Semicondutor industry is a cyclical industry. It is forecasted this industry will grow at a minimum of 10% in 2010. Recent semiconductor industry reviews:

  • Global semiconductor revenue could grow about 10 percent next year after two years of declines, as new computers and feature-jammed smartphones help boost chip demand – Gartner
  • Global pure-play semiconductor foundry revenue will decline about 11% in 2009, but then increase 21% in 2010 – iSuppli
  • The chip sector has been struggling over the last few years as the global economy, oversupply, and price pressures have stalled sales. But as the oversupply and under-demand cycle has stabilized, sales have improved, according to recent reports from the Semiconductor Industry Association.
SMH is the Semiconductor HOLDRs trust ETF and its top ten holding as follow:

SMH broke the long term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance of $24.763 and this level had become a very strong support level.
SMH is currently testing its another strong resistance at $26.24. If SMH can stay above this resistance turned support level, the uptrend is confirmed. Otherwise, it may retrace back to $21.809. SMH has not retraced back to this 61.8% Fibonacci level yet to build the base for future up trend. SMH is currently above 20D, 50D and 200D MA.
Continue ReadingSemiconductor ETF (SMH) rides on semiconductor growth in 2010