BHG Retail REIT IPO Listing Balloting Result

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SINGAPORE — BHG Retail Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), the biggest initial public offering (IPO) in Singapore this year, closed unchanged on its debut yesterday from the offer price of S$0.80 after the underwriter emerged to support the market as nervous investors chose to pare their holdings.

BHG Retail REIT units traded in a narrow range of S$0.80 to S$0.805, with 23.8 million shares changing hands to make it the fourth most actively traded counter on the Singapore Exchange despite trading for only about three hours in the session.

DBS Bank, the underwriter for the IPO, said in an aftermarket filing that it had purchased 1.24 million BHG Retail REIT units at S$0.80 to stabilise the price.

Retail demand for the IPO was lacklustre, suggesting little immediate upside potential. BHG Retail REIT’s public tranche of 8 million units had attracted applications for only 8.48 million or a coverage of just 1.06. All 143.2 million units in the placement tranche were taken up, but the trust manager did not reveal the number of units applied for. In all, BHG Retail REIT raised S$394.2 million from the IPO, after selling more than a third of the offering to cornerstone investors including China Life Insurance and billionaire Chanchai Ruayrungruang.

BHG Retail REIT, the first pure-play China retail REIT sponsored by a China-based group, has a portfolio comprising five retail properties in Beijing, Chengdu, Dalian, Hefei and Xining. It is backed by Beijing Hualian Department Store, which owns and manages 29 malls with another 14 malls under development.

Analysts said the newly launched REIT does not look attractive compared with its peers on the SGX, such as CapitaLand Retail China Trust (CRCT). “The REIT is unlikely a strong contender, due to relatively high valuations and artificially boosted distribution yields,” said Mr Ernest Lim, a remisier at CIMB Securities.

IG market analyst Bernard Aw said: “BHG Retail REIT has predicted distribution yields of 5.7 per cent and 6.3 per cent, respectively for 2015 and 2016. However, this was with the Beijing Hualian Group’s agreement to forego a portion of its share distributions from the REIT until 2020. If there was no such arrangement, the estimated distribution yields will fall to 4 per cent and 4.5 per cent.”

CRCT, a China shopping mall REIT sponsored by Singapore property giant CapitaLand, has a portfolio of 10 malls.

“BHG Retail REIT’s fiscal year 2016 forecast distribution yield and price-to-book valuation (P/BV) pale in comparison to CRCT. For example, BHG trades at approximately one time P/BV and 6.3 per cent distribution yield.

“This pales in comparison with CRCT’s P/BV of 0.9 and 7.4 per cent distribution yield. In addition, CRCT has a long listing track record of around nine years and a strong sponsor as well,” said Mr Lim.

BHG Retail REIT is the SGX’s only mainboard listing this year, with the other 12 listings all on the junior Catalist board. BHG Retail REIT is also the first REIT IPO on the SGX this year after several deals were pulled because of uncertain market conditions and concerns over interest-rate hikes.

Mr Francis Siu Wai Keung, chairman and independent director of the trust manager, said: “We felt that Singapore has got a very mature REIT market with robust investors … The investors in Singapore will probably appreciate the value of the REIT more than other places.”

BHG Retail REIT IPO Balloting ResultBHG Retail REIT IPO Balloting Result1

See BHG Retail REIT IPO Analysis here.

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Singapore REIT Bubble Charts Dec 2015

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Bubble chart derived from Dec 6 2015 Singapore REITs Fundamental Comparison Table. Compare to previous Singapore REIT Bubble Chart, Singapore REIT sector yield is quite attractive at the moment.

These Bubble Charts are used to show the “relative” position compare to other Singapore REITs.

Two visual bubble charts to pick and avoid:

  1. Undervalue Singapore REITs with High Distribution Yield (Value Pick)
  2. Overvalue Singapore REITs with High Gearing Ratio (Risk Avoidance)

The Singapore REIT Bubble charts are best used to visually Short List Singapore REIT only.

Singapore REIT Bubble Chart (Value) Dec8-2015Singapore REIT Bubble Chart (Risk) Dec8-2015

Find out How to Select Singapore REIT using Bubble Charts for Safe Dividend Investing.

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Singapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table – 6 December 2015

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FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) decreases from 722.93 to 699.39 (-3.3%) compare to last post on Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Nov 1, 2015. The index looks like consolidating in a Symmetrical Triangle. The long term trend remains down as the index is trading below 200D SMA which is also sloping down. Keep a close eyes on this FTST ST REIT Index if US Fed announces the Interest Hike this month. Singapore REIT market will face another round of sell off if the recent support about 650 is broken.

FTSE ST REIT Index Dec6-2015

  • Price/NAV decreases from 0.95 to 0.93  (Singapore Overall REIT sector is under value now)
  • Distribution Yield increases from 7.24% to 7.42% (take note that this is lagging number). More than half of Singapore REITs (23 out of 37) have Distribution Yield > 7%. Current yield is attractive but dangerous to make investing decision purely base on the yield. Past performance does NOT equal to future performance.
  • Gearing Ratio increases from 34.54% to 34.82%.  20 out of 37 have Gearing Ratio more than 35%.
  • Most overvalue is Parkway Life (Price/NAV = 1.36),  followed by Ascendas iTrust (Price/NAV = 1.32).
  • Most undervalue (base on NAV) is Fortune REIT (Price/NAV = 0.63), followed by Far East HTrust (Price/NAV = 0.66).
  • Higher Distribution Yield is Croesus RTrust (10.38%), followed by Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (10.10%)
  • Highest Gearing Ratio is Croesus Retail Trust (47.3%) followed by iREIT Global (43.4%)
  • BHG Retail REIT IPO Prospectus.

Singapore-REIT-Fundamental-Analysis-and-Comparison-Table-6-Dec-2015

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. To learn how to use the table and make investing decision, Sign up next REIT Investing Seminar here to learn how to choose a fundamentally strong REIT for long term investing for passive income generation.

Singapore Interest RateDec6-2015 SIBOR Dec6-2015

  • Singapore Interest Rate increases from 0.21% to 0.64%
  • 1 month increases from 0.88800% to 0.94941%
  • 3 month increases from 1.01050% to 1.07108%
  • 6 month increases from 1.06846% to 1.13025%
  • 12 month increases from 1.19551% to 1.25222%

Currently most  REITs in Singapore are trading below 200D SMA which is technically bearish (see Singapore REIT Charts here). Although the distribution yield are very attractive but do take note that this is a lagging number. As REIT is very much depends on the economic cycle, it is important to keep a close eye on economic data (i.e. GDP, consumer spending, PMI) as economic condition will affect the future NPI. NPI will affect Distribution and share price. However, some REITs are more defensive in nature and less sensitive to economy slow down.

Some of the REITs in Singapore are currently trading at an attractive valuation and yield.  Any knee jerk impact when the US Fed Reserve increases the interest present a good opportunity to accumulate in small quantity to build up our investment portfolio which can generate consistent and predictable passive income for our retirement.

If you want to learn how to select a SAFE REITs with predictable and consistent distribution payout, enter at the right price and right time,come and join the seminar on How to Invest in Singapore REIT to generate Passive Income.

Continue ReadingSingapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table – 6 December 2015