Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rides on semiconductor growth in 2010

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Semicondutor industry is a cyclical industry. It is forecasted this industry will grow at a minimum of 10% in 2010. Recent semiconductor industry reviews:

  • Global semiconductor revenue could grow about 10 percent next year after two years of declines, as new computers and feature-jammed smartphones help boost chip demand – Gartner
  • Global pure-play semiconductor foundry revenue will decline about 11% in 2009, but then increase 21% in 2010 – iSuppli
  • The chip sector has been struggling over the last few years as the global economy, oversupply, and price pressures have stalled sales. But as the oversupply and under-demand cycle has stabilized, sales have improved, according to recent reports from the Semiconductor Industry Association.
SMH is the Semiconductor HOLDRs trust ETF and its top ten holding as follow:

SMH broke the long term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance of $24.763 and this level had become a very strong support level.
SMH is currently testing its another strong resistance at $26.24. If SMH can stay above this resistance turned support level, the uptrend is confirmed. Otherwise, it may retrace back to $21.809. SMH has not retraced back to this 61.8% Fibonacci level yet to build the base for future up trend. SMH is currently above 20D, 50D and 200D MA.
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SMRT – Fundamental & Intrinsic Value

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Base on FY2009 Financial Report

  • Current Price = $1.73
  • PE = 16.1
  • Dividend Yield = 4.5%
  • NAV = $0.5074
  • Net Earning = 18.5%
  • Current Ratio = 0.942
  • ROA = 10.8%
  • ROE = 22.5%

Intrinsic Value Calculaton 

PE Model

  • Fair value PE, base on FY2009 EPS $0.10726
  • EPS Growth = 16.2%
  • Intrinsic Value = $1.61
  •  

  • PEG = 0.99

 
 
Discounted EPS Model

 

  • EPS Growth Rate = 16.2% (capped at 15% for calculation)
  • Discount Rate = 5%
  • FY2009 EPS = $0.10726
  •  Intrinsic Value = $1.83
DCF Model
Unable to calculate the Intrinsic Value because the Free Cash Flow is not consistent year over year. SMRT is not buying MRT trains every year and thus Annual Free Cash Flow is not increasing consistently due to inconsistent CAPEX.
SMRT intrinsic value is between $1.61 to $1.83. The current SMRT stock price is at its fair value.
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GoldenAgri – A strong resistance to break!

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GoldenAgri is having a very stong resistance at $0.493 to break before the stock price to move uptrend. It is also testing the 20D and 50D MA resistance level. It looks like a double top has been formed too. Base on the chart, bear will take charge in the short term. GoldenAgri really needs a strong bull to break all the resistances to go north!

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