Apple (AAPL) Super Under Value Stock But Don’t Catch the Falling Knife!

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Don’t catch the falling knife although Apple (AAPL) is super under value now. Sarcastically most Analysts have a BUY or OVERWEIGHT call on AAPL but downgrade the target price. You are going to lose money if you just follow blindly the recommendation of the analysts. This is a classic example of combining Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, Analyst Recommendation and the interpretation of Target Price, and develop a Trading Plan or Investment Plan.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Last Traded Price = $439.88
  • Current PE = 9.96
  • Forward PE = 7.73
  • PEG = 0.48
  • P/B = 3.49
  • Current Ratio = 1.50
  • Debt / Equity = 0
  • ROA = 28.54%
  • ROE = 42.84%

Using DCF Valuation Method

  • Intrinsic Value (7% annual growth rate for the next 10 years) = $713.54
  • Intrinsic Value (12% annual growth rate for the next 10 years) = $918.80
  • Operating Cash Flow = $56,728 Million
  • No. of Shares Outstanding = 939.06 Million
  • Beta = 1.08
  • Discount Rate = 5%
  • Debt per Share = 0
  • Cash per Share = $42.40
 
Technical Analysis
  • AAPL breakdown from a Falling Wedge with Price Target of about $400 (short term).
  • AAPL also breakdown from a Head & Shoulders with neckline at $525 and the price target is $350 (long term).
  • Currently AAPL is trading down trend below 20D, 50D and 200D SMA.
 

Last Analysis on AAPL.

Last Intrinsic Calculation for AAPL.

 

Recent Upgrade / Downgrade

24-Jan-13 Reiterated UBS Buy $650 → $600
24-Jan-13 Reiterated RBC Capital Mkts Outperform $725 → $600
24-Jan-13 Reiterated Oppenheimer Outperform $800 → $600
24-Jan-13 Reiterated Mizuho Buy $600 → $575
24-Jan-13 Reiterated ISI Group Strong Buy $710 → $600
24-Jan-13 Reiterated Deutsche Bank Buy $800 → $575
24-Jan-13 Reiterated Barclays Overweight $740 → $575
23-Jan-13 Reiterated FBR Capital Outperform $725 → $675
22-Jan-13 Reiterated UBS Buy $700 → $650
22-Jan-13 Reiterated Monness Crespi & Hardt Buy $750 → $670
16-Jan-13 Reiterated Stifel Nicolaus Buy $825 → $725
07-Jan-13 Reiterated Barclays Overweight $800 → $740
21-Dec-12 Reiterated RBC Capital Mkts Outperform $750 → $725
17-Dec-12 Reiterated Mizuho Buy $750 → $600
17-Dec-12 Reiterated Canaccord Genuity Buy $800 → $750
14-Dec-12 Reiterated UBS Buy $780 → $700

 

Analyst Recommendation

 

Continue ReadingApple (AAPL) Super Under Value Stock But Don’t Catch the Falling Knife!

Singapore Exchange (SGX): Sideway Consolidation

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Singapore Exchange (SGX) is currently in consolidation mode and trading within a range between $6.94 & $7.05. Base on past chart pattern, 20D SMA proved to be reliable supports and resistances for SGX (shaded in Orange). Currently 20D SMA has catched up the stock price and provide a support at about $6.97. If history to be repeat itself on SGX, this stock should be breaking out from this consolidation phase soon provided 20D SMA is a good support again.

  • Immediate resistance is $7.05 followed by $7.28
  • Immediate support is about $6.95 (20D SMA) followed by $6.81 (61.8% FR)

 

Key Statistics for SGX

Current P/E Ratio (ttm) 26.8788
Estimated P/E(06/2013) 23.8435
Relative P/E vs. FSSTI 2.2171
Earnings Per Share (SGD) (ttm) 0.2608
Est. EPS (SGD) (06/2013) 0.2940
Est. PEG Ratio 3.2888
Market Cap (M SGD) 7,494.82
Shares Outstanding (M) 1,069.16
30 Day Average Volume 1,134,700
Price/Book (mrq) 10.5975
Price/Sale (ttm) 11.9139
Dividend Indicated Gross Yield 3.85%
Cash Dividend (SGD) 0.0400
Last Dividend 10/24/2012
5 Year Dividend Growth -6.11%
Next Earnings Announcement 01/22/2013
Continue ReadingSingapore Exchange (SGX): Sideway Consolidation

Singapore Exchange (SGX): Trend Reversal?

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Looks like SGX is reversing the trend after breaking out from the down trend channel. If SGX is able to hold above the $6.66 support (also 20D SMA), this trend reversal (to up trend) is confirmed. Immediate resistance is at $6.80 which is also the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level.  There is also a possibility of forming an Inverted Head & Shoulders with neckline at $6.80.

Previous SGX Stock Chart Analysis.

Continue ReadingSingapore Exchange (SGX): Trend Reversal?