Gold ETF (GLD): Bearish Down Trend!

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GLD has just broken down from a Symmetrical Triangle and currently trading in a down trend channel with breakout price target of $150. GLD is technically bearish as the ETF is trading below 20D, 50D and 200D SMA, and also trading in “Lower High, Lower Low” chart pattern.

Traditionally GLD is bearish in the month of March base on past 8 years statistic with reliability of 75%. Base on chart pattern and past historical data, shorting GLD in Mar is a much higher probability trade than longing GLD.

There are a few ways to short Gold:
(1) Long Put Option on GLD
(2) Short Call Vertical Spread Option on GLD
(3) Long GLL (ProShares Ultrashort Gold ETF). – ProShares UltraShort Gold seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times the inverse (-2x) of the daily performance of gold bullion as measured by the U.S. Dollar fixing price for delivery in London.



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Wilmar Breakout Finally?

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Looks like Wilmar has finally breakout from a Symmetrical Triangle after so many months of consolidation (see previous analysis). The breakout is supported by a spike in volume. However, still need to wait for Wilmar to retrace to test the previous resistance turned support (at about $3.20) to confirm the breakout. Currently Wilmar is pulling back with Dark Cloud Cover candless to test the $3.20 level. Target price for this breakout is $3.60 which is also close to 200D SMA.

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Olam: Breakdown from Symmetrical Triangle

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Olam has started a down trend after breaking out from a Symmetrical Triangle with price target of $1.68. Olam support & resistance fit quite well to Fibonacci Retracement Level. It is too late to short at current level now (about $1.76). The plan is to wait for rebound to near to$1.83 (50% FR) or $1.90 level (61.8% FR) to short the stock again.

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