SPY: Sell off but still on Up Trend

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SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF)  has a very volatile week and has a huge sell off across the sectors. However technically SPY is still trading within an uptrend channel. SPY rebounded from the 50D SMA support on last Friday. Keep an eye of this 50D SMA and uptrend support (194-195 region) in the coming weeks. Take note that Window Dressing and Portfolio Pumping/Dumping at Sept Quarter End.

S&P500 Sept22-26 2014SPY Sept 27-2014

As we are moving into Oct, be extremely cautious on the October effect.

See last analysis on SPY.

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iPhone 6 Launch Impact on Apple (AAPL) Stock Price

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iPhone6 Impact on AAPL.

Technically AAPL chart is trading within an uptrend channel. All 3 moving averages are still trending up.

AAPL Sept20-2014

Fundamentally AAPL is still solid with forward PE only 14.18.

AAPL Sept20-2014 FA

 

AAPL Intrinsic Value

Last AAPL intrinsic value calculation using DCF method.

Fundamentally & Technically AAPL looks attractive with current price level.

Check out the Fundamental Analysis Class here if you want to understand how to analyse those Financial Ratio & calculate Intrinsic Value to determine whether the stock is good for investing, learn how to identify whether the stock is on uptrend, and more importantly, where to find important and free information from the internet to do your own research.

 

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SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) : Short Vertical Call Spread

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Technical Analysis & Fundamental Analysis

S&P500 rejected at 2000 historical high and SPY rejected at 200. Technically it looks like SPY is going through a correction with short term price target at 190 (Up Trend Channel Support and also the Resistance turned Support level).

Fundamentally S&P500 is over value base on PE ratio. See PE Ration Comparison table here.

SPY Sept 13-2014

 

Trade Setup

  • Strategy: Short Term Directional Bearish Trade.
  • Target: $190
  • Short Call Spread SPY 195/200 Oct 2014 (2 contracts)
  • Max gain @ expiration $690
  • Max loss @ expiration $310
  • B/E @ expiration $198.44
  • Reward vs Risk (RoC) = 2.25
  • Probability OTM (short leg) = 29.42%
  • Profit target = $540 (at $190 support)
  • Exit Conditions:
    • When there is a trend reversal at the support ($190)
    • Break $202 resistance convincingly.
    • Reach 80% of Max Profit (ie. $552)

SPY Short Vertical Call Spread Risk Profile Sept 13-2014

Original Post by Marubozu My Stocks Investing Journey

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