Q3 REIT Earning Starts, Is It the Right Time to buy REITs?

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We are entering into the REIT earning season now. 

The following are the Result Announcement Date for 3Q 2020 

  • SoilbuildBizReit (SV3U.SI) – 15 Oct
  • Keppel Reit (K71U.SI) – 19 Oct
  • Mapletree Log Tr (M44U.SI) – 19 Oct
  • Keppel DC Reit (AJBU.SI) – 20 Oct
  • CapitaCom Trust (C61U.SI) – 21 Oct BMO
  • KepPacOakReitUSD (CMOU.SI) – 21 Oct
  • CapitaMall Trust (C38U.SI) – 22 Oct BMO
  • Mapletree Com Tr (N2IU.SI) – 22 Oct
  • Mapletree Ind Tr (ME8U.SI) – 27 Oct
  • Mapletree NAC Tr (RW0U.SI) – 29 Oct
  • Frasers HTrust (ACV.SI) – 30 Oct
  • Frasers Cpt Tr (J69U.SI) – 3 Nov BMO
  • Frasers L&C Tr (BUOU.SI) – 6 Nov BMO

I have also conducted a Poll on my Telegram Channel and about 44% has a Bullish outlook.  You can join the Poll here for the latest result and check out the sentiment of your fellow investors. https://t.me/REITirement

It is expected the Q3 earning result is better than Q2 earning result after the re-opening of the economy. It is also expected the REITs will pay a higher dividend than the last quarter. Will this improvement of the DPU payout kick start the next bull run in the REIT index? If you have missed out the 1st bull run 40% bull run, This may the 2nd chance for the investors to invest in Singapore REITs before the share prices start to move up.

The following is the Q4 2020 S-REIT Market Outlook I have presented to 400- 500 investors for the past 2 weeks.

  • Singapore entered COVID-19 Phase 3 opening. Is this a good time to invest in REITs? 
  • “Be greedy when others are fearful” according to Warren Buffett. What are the opportunities out there in the REIT market now? Do you know how to identify them? Or are you going to miss the boat again?
  • I am organising a REIT course teaching investors to capture the opportunities in REIT before the next bull run on Sat 17 Oct, 9am – 5pm (Singapore time). This is the only one and the last one in 2020. 
  • This is a Physical F2F & Hands on Class since the circuit breakers ! As seats are very limited due to social distancing requirements, please register ASAP so as not to miss out this 2nd opportunity to invest in REITs at current COVID price.
  • More details and register for this classroom training at (Promo Code: KENNYLOHREITS for discount as my blog followers): 

https://www.eventbrite.sg/e/reits-programme-by-kenny-loh-tickets-122052579551?discount=kennylohreits

See other popular articles here.

Singapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table Sep 21 – 2020

Kenny Loh is a Senior Consultant and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also invited speaker of REITs Sympsosium and Invest Fair. 

Continue Reading Q3 REIT Earning Starts, Is It the Right Time to buy REITs?

Singapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table Sep 21 – 2020

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Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS8670)

TSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased slightly from 835.40 to 854.51 (+2.28%) compared to last month update. REIT Index has rebounded c45% as of Sep 21 from the bottom on Mar 23, 2020.

Currently the REIT index is currently trading on sideway consolidation, sandwiched between a very tight range between 817 support and 854 resistance. There is a Bollinger Band Squeeze with very tight range and low volatility on FTSE ST REIT Index. The index can start big move in either direction.

There is a Golden Cross of 20D SMA above 200D SMA and the REIT index has moved above all the 3 moving averages.

As for now, Short term direction: Sideway and up (if REIT index can stay above all the 3 moving averages of 20D/50D/200D.

Previous chart on FTSE ST REIT index can be found in the last post Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Aug 16, 2020.

 

Fundamental Analysis of 41 Singapore REITs

The following is the compilation of 41 REITs in Singapore with colour coding of the Distribution Yield, Gearing Ratio and Price to NAV Ratio.

  • Note 1: The Financial Ratio are based on past data and there are lagging indicators.
  • Note 2: This REIT table takes into account the dividend cuts due to COVID-19 outbreak. Yield is calculated trailing twelve months (ttm), therefore REITs with delayed payouts might have lower displayed yields, thus yield displayed might be lower.

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  • Price/NAV increased from 0.92 to 0.96 (Singapore Overall REIT sector is undervalued now).
  • Distribution Yield decreased slightly from 6.56% to 6.49% (take note that this is lagging number with better visibility after Q2 earning release). About 39.0% of Singapore REITs (16 out of 41) have Distribution Yield > 7%. Do note that these yield numbers are based on current prices taking into account the delayed distribution/dividend cuts due to COVID-19.
  • Gearing Ratio maintains at 36.61%.  In general, Singapore REITs sector gearing ratio is healthy. Note: Gearing may be affected (i.e. potential increase) as the valuation of the portfolio would be reduced.
  • The most overvalued REITs are Keppel DC REIT (Price/NAV = 2.59), followed by Mapletree Industrial Trust (Price/NAV = 2.07), Parkway Life (Price/NAV = 2.21), Mapletree Logistic Trust (Price/NAV = 1.69) and Ascendas REIT (Price/NAV = 1.54).
  • The most undervalued REITs (based on NAV) are Eagle Hospitality Trust* (Price/NAV =0.17), followed by ARA Hospitality Trust (Price/NAV = 0.40), Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (Price/NAV = 0.41), Starhill Global (Price/NAV = 0.56) and Frasers Hospitality Trust (Price/NAV = 0.60)
  • The Highest Distribution Yield (TTM) is First REIT (14.51%), followed by Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (11.49%), ARA Hospitality Trust (9.19%), EC World REIT (8.40%), KepPacOak US REIT (8.31%), Prime US REIT (8.08%) and ESR REIT (8.01%). Reminder that these yield numbers are based on current prices taking into account delayed distribution/dividend cuts due to COVID-19. Some REITs opted for semi annual reporting and thus no quarterly DPU was announced.
  • The Highest Gearing Ratio REITs are ARA US Hospitality Trust (42.5%), ESR REIT (41.8%), Suntec REIT (41.3%), ARA Logos Log Trust (40.4%) (previously Cache Log Trust) and OUE Commercial REIT (40.1%)
  • Total Singapore REIT Market Capitalisation = S$102 Billion.
  • Top 5 REITs with biggest market capitalisation are Ascendas REIT ($11.87B), Mapletree Industrial Trust ($7.87B), Mapletree Logistics Trust ($7.81B), CapitaMall Trust ($7.49B) and Mapletree Commercial Trust ($6.69B).
  • The bottom 5 REITs with smallest market capitalisation are Eagle Hospitality Trust ($119M), BHG Retail REIT ($283M), United Hamsphire REIT ($286M), ARA Hospitality Trust ($238M) and Elite Commercial REIT ($361M)
  • *Eagle Hospitality Trust is currently suspended

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. To learn how to use the table and make investing decision, Sign up next REIT Investing Workshop here to learn how to choose a fundamentally strong REIT for long term investing for passive income generation.

Top 20 Performance of the Month (Source: https://stocks.cafe/kenny/advanced)

 

SG 10 Year & US 10 Year Government Bond Yield

  • SG 10 Year: 0.882%
  • US 10 Year: 0.70%

Summary

Fundamentally the whole Singapore REITs is undervalued now based on simple average on the Price/NAV. The REIT index is powered by the big cap Industrial sectors such as Keppel DC REIT, Ascendas REIT, Mapletree Industrial Trust, Mapletree Logistic Trust, Frasers Logistic & Commercial Trust and Parkway Life REIT.

(Source: https://stocks.cafe/kenny/overview)   

Retail & Hospitality sectors, small & medium cap REITs are very attractive based on the NAV. However, do take note that NAV would probably be adjusted downward caused by the devaluation of property value. We have already seen the NAV of some REITs are adjusted downward and the increase of gearing ratio, from the latest earning release or business update.

Yield spread (reference to 10 year Singapore government bond of 0.882%) has decreased slightly from 5.665% to 5.608%. The risk premium are still attractive to accumulate Singapore REITs in stages to lock in the current price and long term yield after the recovery.

Technically the REIT Index is currently trading on sideway consolidation with low volatility until the breakout. The breakout may happen in the coming earning season starts in coming October. Current macro factors such as low interest rate environment and recovery of global economic support the bullish breakout.

Note: This above analysis is for my own personal research and it is NOT a buy or sell recommendation. Investors who would like to leverage on my extensive research and years on REIT investing experience can approach me separately for REIT Portfolio Consultation.

 

My Physical REIT Class is back! This is The ONLY ONE class in Q4 this year. The best learning is still through the class room learning. Seats are limited due to social distancing requirement, please register ASAP (Promocode: KENNYLOHREITS) https://www.eventbrite.sg/e/reits-programme-by-kenny-loh-tickets-122052579551

 

Kenny Loh is a Senior Consultant and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also invited speaker of REITs Sympsosium and Invest Fair. 
 
You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement
Continue Reading Singapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table Sep 21 – 2020

Shariah Investment Screening Methodology

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I received many inquiries since my last articles on the Shariah Investment, I use this opportunity to explain how Muslim can use the Shariah Compliant Rulebook to conduct the screening and monitor the Shariah Compliant-ness of their investment regularly.

Shariah Investment in Singapore.

Is Halal Earning with Investment Possible?

Shariah Compliant Rulebook

There are 2 important aspects to ensure the investment is Shariah Compliant (a) Business Activities (b) Financial

Business To Avoid:
Investment is not allowed in companies generating income from any of the following activities:
• Adult Entertainment
• Alcohol
• Cinema
• Defense & Weapons
• Financial services (insurance, conventional banking, conventional financial institutions, mortgage, etc.)
• Gambling
• Gold and silver hedging
• Interest-bearing investments
• Music
• Pork
• Tobacco


Financial Screening:
• Total sum of non-permissible income should not exceed 5% of the total
income generated by the company
• Total sum of interest-bearing cash and investments should not exceed 30% of the preceding 12-months average market capitalization
• Total sum of interest‐bearing debts should not exceed 30% of the preceding 12-months average market capitalization
• No investment in fixed income preferred shares is allowed


Purification Methodology:
• Investment Purification
Investor purifies the non-permissible income per share regardless of any capital gain, dividend distribution, or compliance status for the stock.

Example #1: Apple

Apple is Shariah compliant as the stock passes Business Activity and Financial. If Muslim investors have invested in Apple shares, investors can keep the capital gain but dividends have to be donated away (according to the purification methodology).

Example #2: DBS Bank

DBS Bank is not Shariah compliant as the stock fails Business Activity due to Non-permissible income (i.e. Riba in this case) and Financial due to interest bearing investment and debts. If Muslim investors have invested in DBS Bank, all capital gain and dividends have to be donated away.

Muslim investors who would like to make sure your investment portfolio is Shariah compliant, you may write to Kenny Loh (email: kennyloh@fapl.sg) to have a Shariah Compliant Portfolio Review.

Kenny Loh is a Senior Consultant and Certified Islamic Wealth Advisor of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also invited speaker of REITs Sympsosium and Invest Fair. 

You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement

Continue Reading Shariah Investment Screening Methodology