Money and Me: Finding bargains in the S-REITs sector today

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8th November 2023

Money and Me: Finding bargains in the S-REITs sector today

Who are the S-REITs winners and losers of this earnings season? What do the latest results suggest about the resiliency of S-REITs? What’s driving the strong double digit rebound in US office S-REITs? And where can we find bargains in this sector today? Dan Koh poses these questions and more to Kenny Loh, REIT Specialist and Independent Financial Advisor.

 

 
 

Note: The above analysis are my own personal views and are NOT buy or sell recommendations. Investors who would like to leverage my extensive research and years of Singapore REIT investing experience can approach me separately for a REIT Portfolio Consultation.

 

Listen to his previous market outlook interviews here:

2023

2022

2021

2020

Kenny Loh is an Associate Wealth Advisory Director and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments, Digital Assets and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also invited speaker of REITs Symposium and Invest Fair.  

You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement

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Singapore REITs Monthly Update (November 10th, 2023)

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Happy Deepavali!

Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS351020)

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) decreased from 646.46 to 641.39 (-0.78%) compared to last month’s update. The REIT index hit the resistance zone at about 660 level after rebounded from 613 level.  Technically the REIT index is still in bearish territory.

  • Short-term direction: Down 
  • Medium-term direction: Down
  • Long-term direction: Down
  • Immediate Support at 600-613 zone (Mar 2020 low)
  • Immediate Resistance at about 660 (horizontal support turned resistance and 50D SMA)

FTSE REIT Index Chart

Previous chart on FTSE ST REIT index can be found in the last post: Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on October 8th, 2023.

 

Fundamental Analysis of 38 Singapore REITs

The following is the compilation of 38 Singapore REITs with colour-coding of the Distribution Yield, Gearing Ratio and Price to NAV Ratio.

  • The Financial Ratios are based on past data and these are lagging indicators.
  • All REITs except Cromwell European REIT have the latest Q3 2023 update values.
  • I have introduced weighted average (weighted by market cap) to the financial ratios, in addition to the existing simple average ratios. This is another perspective where smaller market cap REITs do not disproportionately affect the average ratios.

Data from REITsavvy Screener. https://screener.reitsavvy.com/

 

 

What does each Column mean?

  • FY DPU: If Green, FY DPU for the recent 4 Quarters is higher than that of the preceding 4 Quarters. If Lower, it is Red.
  • Yield (ttm): Yield, calculated by DPU (trailing twelve months) and Current Price as of November 10th, 2023. Notes:
    • ESR-LOGOS REIT and Paragon REIT: Annualised yield, after taking into account switch to semi-annual distribution declaration. For Paragon REIT: calculated after converting from 13 months of distribution to 12 months.
  • Gearing (%): Leverage Ratio.
  • Price/NAV: Price to Book Value. Formula: Current Price over Net Asset Value per Unit.
  • Yield Spread (%): REIT yield (ttm) reference to Gov Bond Yields. REITs trading in USD is referenced to US Gov Bond Yield, everything else is referenced to SG Gov Bond Yield.

Price/NAV Ratios Overview

  • Price/NAV remained at 0.71. (Weighted Average: 0.71)
    • Remained from 0.71 in October 2023.
    • Singapore Overall REIT sector is very undervalued now.
    • Take note that NAV is adjusted upwards for some REITs due to pandemic recovery.
  • Most overvalued REITs (based on Price/NAV)
    • ParkwayLife Reit (C2PU) 1.51
      Keppel DC Reit (AJBU) 1.31
      Capitaland Ascendas Reit (A17U) 1.16
      Mapletree Ind Tr (ME8U) 1.15
      Mapletree Log Tr (M44U) 1.08
      AIMS APAC Reit (O5RU) 0.92
    • Only 5 REITs are overvalued now based on Price/NAV value.
    • No change in the Top 2 in the last 6 months.
  • Most undervalued REITs (based on Price/NAV)
    • Prime US Reit USD (OXMU) 0.17
      ManulifeReit USD (BTOU) 0.20
      Lippo Malls Tr (D5IU) 0.26
      KepPacOakReitUSD (CMOU) 0.31
      ARA HTrust USD (XZL) 0.35
      EC World Reit (BWCU) 0.40

Distribution Yields Overview

  • TTM Distribution Yield decreased to 9.57%. (Weighted Average is 6.68%)    
    • Decreased from 10.44% in October 2023 (Weighted Average was 6.92%)
    • 20 of 40 Singapore REITs have distribution yields of above 7%.
    • Do take note that these yield numbers are based on current prices taking into account the delayed distribution/dividend cuts due to COVID-19, and economic recovery.
    • 11 REITs have a ttm yield of over 10%!
  • Highest Distribution Yield REITs (ttm)
    • Prime US Reit USD (OXMU) 42.89
      ManulifeReit USD (BTOU) 27.09
      KepPacOakReitUSD (CMOU) 21.12
      Elite Commercial REIT GBP (MXNU) 15.67
      UtdHampshReitUSD (ODBU) 15.27
      CromwellReit EUR (CWBU) 13.35
    • Reminder that these yield numbers are based on current prices. This has caused Manulife US REIT and Prime US REIT’s ttm yields to be over 25%.
    • Some REITs opted for semi-annual reporting and thus no quarterly DPU was announced.
    • A High Yield should not be the sole ratio to look for when choosing a REIT to invest in.
  • Yield Spread tightened to 6.24%. (Weighted Average remains similar at 4.40%) 
    • Tightened from 6.79% in October 2023. (Weighted Average was 4.36%)

Gearing Ratios Overview

  • Gearing Ratio increased to 38.08%. (Weighted Average: 38.34%)    
    • Increased from 37.95% of October 2023. (Weighted Average: 38.26%)  
    • Gearing Ratios are updated quarterly. All REITs have updated their Gearing Ratios with Q2 results.
    • S-REITs Gearing Ratio has been on a steady uptrend. It was 35.55% in Q4 2019.
  • Highest Gearing Ratio REITs
    • ManulifeReit USD (BTOU) 56.0
      Elite Commercial REIT GBP (MXNU) 45.4
      Prime US Reit USD (OXMU) 43.7
      Lippo Malls Tr (D5IU) 43.0
      Suntec Reit (T82U) 42.7
      Capitaland China Tr (AU8U) 42.4

Market Capitalisation Overview

  • Total Singapore REIT Market Capitalisation decreased by 0.67% to S$85.99 Billion.
    • Decreased from S$86.57 Billion in October 2023.
  • Biggest Market Capitalisation REITs (S$):
    • Capitaland Int Com Trust (C38U) 11906.33
      Capitaland Ascendas Reit (A17U) 11810.53
      Mapletree Log Tr (M44U) 7638.88
      Mapletree PAC Tr (N2IU) 6977.57
      Mapletree Ind Tr (ME8U) 6148.66
      Frasers Log & Com Tr (BUOU) 3903.70
    • MPACT and MLT swapped places, after no change in the rankings since September 2022.
  • Smallest Market Capitalisation REITs (S$):
    • Lippo Malls Tr (D5IU) 153.94
      ManulifeReit USD (BTOU) 191.00
      Elite Commercial REIT GBP (MXNU) 196.46
      Prime US Reit USD (OXMU) 206.80
      ARA HTrust USD (XZL) 211.96
      EC World Reit (BWCU) 226.75

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. If you want to know more about investing in REITs, here’s a subsidised 2-day course with all you need to know about REITs and how to start investing in them.

 

Top 20 Worst Performers of October 2023

Source: https://screener.reitsavvy.com/

 

 

SG 10 Year & US 10 Year Government Bond Yield

  • SG 10 Year: 3.13% (increased from 3.47%)
  • US 10 Year: 4.66% (increased from 4.80%)

Summary

The past month has been an average month for S-REITs, after 2 bearish months and mass selling in the REIT Sectors due to the spike in 10 years government bond yield and yield spread compression. However, fundamentally the whole Singapore REITs landscape remains extremely undervalued based on the average Price/NAV (at 0.71) value of the S-REITs, with still a very attractive DPU yield of 9.57%! (Weighted average yield of 6.68%). Do take note that NAV and DPU are lagging numbers.

 

 

(Source: https://stocks.cafe/kenny/overview)

Weighted Average Yield spread (in reference to the 10-year Singapore government bond yield of 3.13% as of 10th November 2023) narrowed slightly from 4.36% to 4.40%. The Fed Rate has however adjusted its forecast up, expecting to keep its Fed Rate high (5.25% to 5.50% band) for longer until Q2 2024. 

 

Technically, FTSE ST REIT Index has broken the Oct 2022’s support and heading towards the next support level at about 600 (Mar 2020’s low). The current sentiment in S-REIT sector is bearish and oversold. 

 

 

Kenny Loh is a Wealth Advisory Director and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments, Digital Assets and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also invited speaker of REITs Symposium and Invest Fair.  You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement

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How to Strengthen Your Business’s Cashless Ecosystem

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While cashless transactions have been around since the 1990s, the technological boom of the 2000s and global events like the COVID-19 pandemic have definitely propelled it to the mainstream. The World Bank posits that up to two-thirds of adults worldwide can send and receive digital payments. Cashless ecosystems are growing in new markets, and they won’t be slowing down anytime soon.

If you’re a startup entrepreneur or own a small- or medium-sized enterprise (SME), know that setting up a cashless payment solution is not enough. Your goal should be to strengthen your cashless ecosystem to maximize its potential benefits for both your business and your customers. Below are a few practical strategies for maintaining a profitable cashless ecosystem:  

1) Open a Business Account with a Digital Bank

A truly robust cashless ecosystem begins with your business’s financial infrastructure. For this reason, you’ll want to consider opening a business account with a digital bank that’s known to have strong cashless solutions.

There are several benefits to having a digital bank account for your business. For one, digital banks are often better equipped to meet modern financial needs. They typically offer seamless integration with digital payment platforms and provide real-time transaction tracking. For another, these banks understand the importance of digital transactions and can provide the necessary tools to streamline your cashless operations.

In the Philippines, you’ll have an ally in Maya Business—one of the first financial technology or fintech companies in the country to specialize in financial solutions for startups and SMEs. This includes Maya Business Deposit, which enables businesses to efficiently funnel their revenues for different income streams into one business account. Clients can further use Maya Business Manager, a dashboard that monitors a business’s cash flow, to gain an accurate view of their overall financial health and their revenues from cashless transactions.

2) Provide Solid Online Payment Options

Any business that operates online should have user-friendly online payment solutions integrated into its e-commerce website. You’ll want to ensure that your website can accept various online payment options from your customers, from credit card payments to online wallet payments. You should also motivate your customers to go cashless upon checkout by promising them an online checkout process that’s smooth, secure, and hassle-free.

E-commerce websites on the Shopify or WooCommerce platforms can use Maya’s platform-specific internet payment solutions. Through Maya’s custom Shopify and WooCommerce plugins, your business will easily accept card and digital wallet payments from your customers. Best of all, online payments processed through these payment gateways are encrypted and secured.

3) Offer Multiple Digital Payment Options

In a diverse market, it’s essential to be able to cater to a variety of customer preferences for cashless payments. To enhance your customers’ overall experience in your stores, be sure to offer them multiple digital payment options. Moreover, remove barriers that might prevent potential customers from completing transactions by providing flexibility in their payment methods.

Philippines-based businesses with physical stores can turn to solutions like the Maya Terminal and Maya Terminal Lite. These are next-generation payment terminals that can easily integrate a business’s existing point-of-sale or POS cash register. Aside from accepting credit and debit card transactions, the terminals can also accommodate digital wallet payments as well as QR-code payments from QR Ph.

4) Educate Your Staff and Customers

A cashless ecosystem thrives when both staff and customers are well-informed about how to use it to their advantage. As such, train your employees on how to process digital payments securely. In addition, encourage them to assist customers in navigating the cashless experience, addressing any questions or concerns that the latter may have in a prompt manner.

Also take the time to educate your customers about how cashless payments will benefit them. You can highlight the convenience and security these types of payments provide compared to cash transactions. Above all, establish your business as a trustworthy facilitator of cashless payments, and demonstrate how much you care about your customers’ privacy, convenience, and wellbeing. 

5) Incentivize Cashless Payments

How do you encourage customers to use cashless payments more often? One particularly effective way to do so is to incentivize cashless payments through rewards.

For instance, you can implement loyalty programs or provide cashback rewards to motivate your customers to go cashless. If there’s something in it for the customer, like a discount or other perk, they’ll see the logic of choosing a cashless payment over paper money and coins.

6) Update Your Technology Regularly

To keep your business’s cashless ecosystem both competitive and secure, don’t be remiss in updating your payment systems and software. Remember that regular updates ensure access to the latest security features and technology. Establish a schedule for updates and maintenance to prevent disruptions to your cashless operations.

7) Be Conscientious about Regulatory Compliance for Your Cashless Infrastructure

Finally, staying in compliance with payment industry regulations and security standards is non-negotiable for a business that wants to go cashless. Keep abreast of the regulations in your region, and ensure that every component of your cashless ecosystem aligns with these standards.

Maya’s proprietary payment terminals, the Maya Terminal and Maya Terminal Lite, are ATEX-certified, EMV-certified, and PCI-DSS-compliant electronic and card payment machines. Knowing that these devices meet stringent payment industry regulations, you won’t have to worry about your customers’ security. You can also be confident in your ability to use a cashless ecosystem that operates under the highest financial and ethical standards. 

Strengthening your cashless ecosystem is an endeavor that requires strategic planning and ongoing commitment. Through these approaches, and by partnering with an online payment processing company like Maya Business, you can build up a cashless ecosystem that not only meets your customer expectations but also plays a huge part in your business’s growth and success.

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