Integrated Retail/Office Development REITs: How do they compare?

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On the 3rd November 2020, Capitaland Mall Trust began trading as Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT), following the merger of Capitaland Mall Trust and Capitaland Commercial Trust. Following the merger, Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust now has 24 Retail/Office/Integrated Development properties in Singapore.

Following this merger, out of the top 10 REITs in terms of market capitalisation, there are now 3 REITs in Singapore with both Retail, Office and Integrated Development properties, including Mapletree Commercial Trust and Suntec REIT. In this article, we will be comparing how these REITs stack up, using portfolio information, financial ratios, etc.

REIT Portfolio Overview

Capitaland Mall Trust recently merged with Capitaland Commercial Trust, to form Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust. With a total of 24 properties, which include office towers in the CBD area and retail malls distributed around Singapore, CICT is the largest market capitalisation trust in Singapore, with a total portfolio valuation of S$22.4 billion.


Having a portfolio which includes VivoCity, Singapore’s largest shopping mall, and Mapletree Business City, one of the largest Integrated Developments in Singapore, Mapletree Commercial Trust is the 4th largest REIT in terms of market capitalisation as of 4th January 2021. With 5 properties located in the south of Singapore, it has a portfolio valuation of S$8.9 Billion.


With 5 properties in Australia and 4 in Singapore, Suntec REIT has a portfolio valuation of S$10.5 Billion. Properties owned by Suntec REIT include Suntec City, one of Singapore’s largest commercial developments, encompassing 5 office towers, a shopping mall and a convention centre.

Portfolio Distribution

The above diagram shows the geographical distribution of each of the REIT’s portfolio locations. Some of the observations that can be drawn out include:

  • Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust properties can be found throughout Singapore, even in heartland areas. For example, Junction 8 Shopping Centre in Bishan.
  • 4 of Mapletree Commercial Trust properties are in the Harbourfront/Alexandra precinct, close to Singapore’s downtown area, with one in the CBD area.
  • Out of these 3 REITs, Suntec REIT is the only REIT which owns overseas properties in Australia. In Singapore, all their properties are located in the CBD area.

Fundamental Ratios

Funamental Ratio comparison between the 3 REITs. Information taken from the StocksCafe REIT screener. Values taken on 4th January 2021. Note that for CICT, values for the former Capitaland Mall Trust are shown.

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The above table shows the corresponding fundamental ratios of the 3 REITs. Some observations that can be made are shown below:

  • Yield (ttm): At current prices, Mapletree Commercial Trust has the lowest yield of 3.54%. However, yield (ttm) is not a meaningful unit of measurement at the moment, due to recent dividend cuts due to the pandemic, and the switching of dividend payouts of some REITs to a semi-annual payout schedule (e.g Starhill Global REIT).
  • Gearing: Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust and Mapletree Commercial Trust have a gearing ratio of about 34%, while Suntec REIT has a high gearing ratio of 41.5%.
  • Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust is currently slightly overvalued, at Price/NAV of 1.078. Mapletree Commercial Trust is relatively overvalued while Suntec REIT is relatively undervalued.

Lease Management

Lease Management comparison between the 3 REITs. Information taken from the StocksCafe REIT screener. Values taken on 4th January 2021. Note that for CICT, values for the former Capitaland Mall Trust are shown.

The above table shows the corresponding lease management values of the 3 REITs. Note that for CICT, values for the former Capitaland Mall Trust are shown above instead. Some observations that can be made are shown below:

  • Number of Properties: Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust owns the most properties, with 24 properties after the merger. Suntec REIT is the only REIT here with overseas properties, namely in Australia.
  • Occupancy Rate: All 3 REITs have strong occupancy rates of above 95%, with the lowest being Suntec REIT at 95.2%.
  • Weighted Average Lease Expiry (WALE): Suntec REIT has the highest WALE value at 3.5 years.
  • Property Yield: Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust has the highest Property Yield value of 5.54%, followed by Mapletree Commercial Trust and Suntec REIT. .
  • Property Portfolio Value: The former Capitaland Mall Trust has the highest AUM value by a considerable margin even before the merger, at $11.5B.

Debt Management

Debt Management comparison between the 3 REITs. Information taken from the StocksCafe REIT screener. Values taken on 4th January 2021

The above table shows the corresponding lease management values of the 3 REITs. Note that for CICT, values for the former Capitaland Mall Trust are shown instead. Some observations that can be made are shown below:

  • Weighted Average Debt Maturity (WADM): Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust and Mapletree Commercial Trust has higher WADM values, at 4.3 and 4.5 years respectively.
  • Interest Cost: All 3 REITs have Cost of Debt values ranging between 2.5% to 3.1%
  • Interest Coverage Ratio: Suntec REIT has a lower Interest Coverage Ratio compared to the other REITs, at 2.6x.
  • Unsecured Borrowings: Almost all the borrowings made by the 3 REITs are unsecured.

Kenny Loh is a Senior Consultant and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also an invited speaker of REITs Symposium and Invest Fair. Kenny Loh also offers REIT Portfolio Advisory for a fee. Do contact him at kennyloh@fapl.sg 

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Money and Me: REITS that did well in 2020

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18 December 2020 

Money and Me: REITS that did well in 2020

Michelle Martin speaks to Kenny Loh, REIT Specialist and Independent Financial Adviser to give us an overview of the REIT sector in 2020, a look ahead at retail REITS, recovery in the office space and REITS in India.

  • What overseas REITs to look out for
  • Common characteristics of top performing S-REITs in 2020
  • Kenny’s take on Suntec REIT being RHB’s preferred pick for the Office/Retail space
 

Listen to his previous market outlook interviews here:

Kenny Loh is a Senior Consultant and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also invited speaker of REITs Sympsosium and Invest Fair. 
 
You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement
Continue ReadingMoney and Me: REITS that did well in 2020

Singapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table Dec 20 – 2020

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Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS8670)

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased from 828.26  to 854.19 (+3.13%) compared to last month update. Currently the REIT index is testing the resistance of about 852 of a sideway consolidation range.

  • As for now, Short term direction: Sideway, until breakout of the resistance (starts up trend) or breakdown of the support (starts down trend).
  • Immediate Support at 819
  • Immediate Resistance at 852, followed by 874.

Previous chart on FTSE ST REIT index can be found in the last post Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Nov 22, 2020.

Fundamental Analysis of 40 Singapore REITs

The following is the compilation of 40 REITs in Singapore with colour coding of the Distribution Yield, Gearing Ratio and Price to NAV Ratio.

  • Note 1: The Financial Ratio are based on past data and there are lagging indicators.
  • Note 2: This REIT table takes into account the dividend cuts due to COVID-19 outbreak. Yield is calculated trailing twelve months (ttm), therefore REITs with delayed payouts might have lower displayed yields, thus yield displayed might be lower.
  • Note 3: All REITs in Singapore have already released the Q3 earnings or provide latest business update.
  • Note 4: Capital Mall Trust has merged with Capitaland Commercial Trust and has became Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust (C38U). Capitaland Commercial Trust is delisted.

  • Price/NAV increased to 0.98
    • Increased from 0.95 in November 2020
    • Singapore Overall REIT sector is at fair value now
  • TTM Distribution Yield decreased to 5.30%
    • Decreased from 5.50% in November 2020
    • After Q3 earning release after factoring in the dividend cut impact caused by COVID-19).
    • About 22.5% of Singapore REITs (9 out of 40) have distribution yields of above 7%.
    • Do take note that these yield numbers are based on current prices taking into account the delayed distribution/dividend cuts due to COVID-19.
  • Gearing Ratio remained at 37.63%. 
    • In general, Singapore REITs sector gearing ratio is healthy but started to increase due to the reduction of the valuation of portfolios and increase in borrowing.
  • Most overvalued REITs (based on Price/NAV)
    • Keppel DC REIT (Price/NAV = 2.35)
    • Parkway Life (Price/NAV = 1.97)
    • Mapletree Industrial Trust (Price/NAV = 1.68)
    • Mapletree Logistics Trust (Price/NAV = 1.60)
    • Ascendas REIT (Price/NAV = 1.40)

(Source: https://stocks.cafe/kenny/advanced) Sign up for the full feature with 20% Early Bird discount!

  • Most undervalued REITs (based on Price/NAV)
    • Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (Price/NAV = 0.30)
    • First REIT (Price/NAV = 0.43)
    • Starhill Global REIT (Price/NAV = 0.63)
    • ARA Hospitality Trust (Price/NAV = 0.65)
    • OUE Commercial REIT (Price/NAV = 0.66)
    • BHG REIT (Price/NAV = 0.68)
  • Highest Distribution Yield REITs (ttm)
    • First REIT (13.00%)
    • Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (9.88%)
    • KepPacOak US REIT (8.57%)
    • ARA LOGOS Logistic Trust (8.46%)
    • Cromwell European REIT (7.69%)
    • EC World REIT (7.61%)
    • Reminder that these yield numbers are based on current prices taking into account delayed distribution/dividend cuts due to COVID-19.
    • Some REITs opted for semi-annual reporting and thus no quarterly DPU was announced.
  • Highest Gearing Ratio REITs
    • Eagle Hospitality Trust (65.5%)
    • ARA US Hospitality Trust (43%)
    • Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (42.5%)
    • ESR REIT (41.6%)
    • Suntec REIT (41.5%)
    • ARA Logos Log Trust (40.5%) (previously Cache Log Trust),
    • OUE Commercial REIT (40.3%)
    • Mapletree NAC Trust (40.1%)
  • Total Singapore REIT Market Capitalisation = S$103.5 Billion.
  • Biggest Market Capitalisation REITs:
    • Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust ($13.98B)
    • Ascendas REIT ($11.19B)
    • Mapletree Logistics Trust ($7.93B)
    • Mapletree Commercial Trust ($6.99B)
    • Mapletree Industrial Trust ($6.68B)
  • Smallest Market Capitalisation REITs:
    • Eagle Hospitality Trust ($119M)
    • Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust ($243M)
    • United Hamsphire REIT ($286M)
    • BHG Retail REIT ($289M)
    • First REIT ($339M)
    • ARA Hospitality Trust ($366M)
  • Eagle Hospitality Trust is currently suspended

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. To learn how to use the table and make investing decision, Sign up next REIT Investing Workshop here to learn how to choose a fundamentally strong REIT for long term investing for passive income generation.

Top 20 Performance of the Month (Source: https://stocks.cafe/kenny/advanced)

SG 10 Year & US 10 Year Government Bond Yield

  • SG 10 Year: 0.893%
  • US 10 Year: 0.95%

Summary

Fundamentally the whole Singapore REITs is close to fair value now based on simple average on the Price/NAV. Below is the market cap heat map for the past 1 month. We can see from here there was a rotation from Industrial sector to Hospitality & Retail sectors, and other small & medium cap REITs which are playing catch up now due to cheap valuation.

(Source: https://stocks.cafe/kenny/overview)

Retail & Hospitality sectors, small & medium cap REITs are still attractive based on the NAV although the recent catch up. However, do take note that NAV of most REITs have been adjusted downward caused by the devaluation of property value.

Yield spread (reference to 10 year Singapore government bond of 0.893%) tightened from 4.575% to 4.407% due to drop in TTM DPU. However, the risk premium are still attractive to accumulate Singapore REITs in stages to lock in the current price and long term yield after the recovery.

Technically the REIT Index is still trading on sideway consolidation with low volatility until the breakout. Current macro factors such as low interest rate environment, aggressive M&A for future DPU growth and recovery of global economic support the bullish breakout.

Note: This above analysis is for my own personal research and it is NOT a buy or sell recommendation. Investors who would like to leverage on my extensive research and years on REIT investing experience can approach me separately for REIT Portfolio Consultation.

Kenny Loh is a Senior Consultant and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also invited speaker of REITs Symposium and Invest Fair.  You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement

Continue ReadingSingapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table Dec 20 – 2020