KepLand: Rising Wedge – Trend Reversal?

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Kepland is showing a Rising Wedge, a trend reversal pattern. 2/5 EMA are both bearish on daily and weekly chart. Kepland has also broken 50D SMA.

If Kepland breaks the support of the Rising Wedge, the price target of this breakout is about $3.00 or somewhere near 61.8% Finonacci Retracement Level.

Key Statistics for KPLDKey Statistics for KPLD

Current P/E Ratio (ttm) 3.4635
Estimated P/E            (12/2012            ) 12.9104
Earnings Per Share (SGD) (ttm) 0.9990
Est.            EPS (SGD) (12/2012) 0.2680
Est. PEG Ratio 0.8281
Market Cap (M SGD) 5,343.09
Shares Outstanding (M) 1,544.25
Enterprise Value (M SGD) (ttm) 7,011.75
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm) 40.77
Price/Book (mrq) 0.9461
Price/Sale (ttm) 6.5463
Dividend Indicated Gross Yield 5.78%
Next Earnings Announcement 10/17/2012

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Singapore Banks average 15% total return over past year

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Source: SGX Gateway

Singapore Exchange (SGX) lists three locally incorporated banks, DBS Group (D05), OCBC (O39) and UOB (U11) which together make up a quarter of the Straits Times Index (STI) market capitalisation.  A key measure of a bank is its tier 1 capital to risk weighted asset ratio. Tier 1 capital represents the best form of capital and the higher the ratio to risk weighted assets, the more money the bank has to support the risks it takes.  Together, the Singapore banks maintain a Tier 1 capital ratio to risk weighted assets of 13.6%, as reported by the IMF Global Financial Stability Report last week.  
 
Singapore maintains the highest Tier 1 to risk weighted asset ratio across Asia, with Tier 1 capital for Japan Banks at 12.3% and Hong Kong Banks at 10.4%.  It is a key measure of the strength of a bank, which is why the annual Bloomberg global rankings place 40% of the scoring emphasis on it. These rankings placed OCBC at #1, UOB at #7 and DBS at #8 in 2012. The total return of the three banks over the past year averages to 15%with individual performances as follows:

  1. DBS Group Holdings (D05) accounts for 9.2% of the STI market capitalisation. The 2012 World’s Strongest Bank rankings from Bloomberg noted DBS maintained a 12.9% ratio of Tier 1 capital to risk weighted assets. DBS has generated a total return of 19.6% in the past year, compared to an average annualised total return of 8.1% over the ten year period ending September 2012. DBS currently maintains an indicative dividend yield of 3.95%.
     
  2. OCBC (O39) accounts for 8.5% of the STI market capitalisation. This 2012 World’s Strongest Bank rankings from Bloomberg noted OCBC maintained a 14.4% ratio of Tier 1 capital to risk weighted assets. OCBC has generated a total return of 14.4% in the past year. This compares to an average annualised total return of 14.2% over the ten year period ending September 2012. OCBC currently maintains an indicative dividend yield of 3.33%.
     
  3. United Overseas Bank (U11) accounts for 8.1% of the STI market capitalisation. This year’s World’s Strongest Bank ranking from Bloomberg noted UOB maintain a 13.5% ratio of Tier 1 capital to risk weighted assets. UOB has generated a total return of 11.2% in the past year, compared to an average annualised total return of 9.6% over the ten year period ending September 2012. UOB currently maintains an indicative dividend yield of 3.17%.
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Oil Stocks (PBR, SLB, PSX) And ETF (USO) Outlook

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Commentary:

The price of oil plays a key role in many industries, and has the potential to impact stock prices. Yet not all oil sector stocks are directly related to the price of oil, and often have their own technical outlooks and opportunities, independent of what the price of oil is doing. Looking first at the price of oil, as represented by an exchange traded fund (ETF), we will then look at three major oil stocks from varying industries relating to the oil sector.

 

 
United States Oil (ARCA:USO)
 
 

The United States Oil (ARCA:USO) stock rose in July and August, but stalled and pulled back in mid-September. Resistance is at $35 and support at is $32.50 – the price range the ETF has been in since September 19. A breakout of that range indicates the short-term direction of the ETF. A rally above $35 points to a move towards $36, and if the ETF can keep rallying through $37.17 (September 14 high), it signifies that the ETF is in the midst of a longer-term uptrend. On the other hand, a drop back below $32.50 is bearish, with the potential to move to the $29.02 June low, and possibly lower as the longer-term downtrend since March continues.

SEE: Technical Analysis: Support And Resistance

 

 

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A-Petro (NYSE:PBR)
 
 

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A-Petro (NYSE:PBR), the large Brazilian drilling and exploration company, fell aggressively from the 52-week high of $32.60 in February to a $17.27 52-week low in June. Since the low though, the stock has been pushing higher and is currently within a flag formation – traditionally a continuation pattern. Since mid-September the stock has had little volatility as it moves sideways with a slight downward bias. A breakout above that sideways range (flag) at $23.70 indicates another pop higher in the stock, with a target of $26 to $26.50. A sharp drop nullifies the flag pattern and is likely to be bearish since the long-term trend remains down.

SEE: Continuation Patterns: An Introduction

 

 

Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB)
 
 

Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB) is an oil and gas equipment and services provider which has been in a “ranging” mode going back to the latter part of 2011. Tapping out near $80 to $81, this is has been the area to short or sell the stock over the last year. A breakout above this region is likely to cause a buying surge though, with a target of $100. A good buy point for the range has been $60 to $65, but a drop below $59 could the send the stock toward $50.

SEE: The Anatomy Of Trading Breakouts

 

 

Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX)
 
 

Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX), an oil and gas refining and marketing company, has been rallying since May when it began trading. Since mid-September the stock has moved sideways in a tight range. The breakout of the range indicates the direction of the stock over the coming weeks and potentially over the coming months. A rise above $48.22 keeps the uptrend going, with a target of $52 or higher. If the price drops below $44, a fall toward support at $40 is probable. Dropping below $40 draws the overall uptrend in question.

 

 

 

 
Bottom Line:

All of the aforementioned oil related stocks are worth trading, but each come with a different trading opportunity. Traders should trade with an ideal trend, but trendlines as well as support and resistance can be used to determine when the tide may be changing. Due to the global nature of oil, oil stocks and ETFs can move quickly and aggressively, therefore, be aware of and always manage your risk.

 
Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com

At the time of writing, Cory Mitchell did not own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this article.

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