How do I plan my exit point?

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Selling off requires lots of discipline & determination because this decision determine whether we lose money, make money or make less money. It is not uncommon that we fail to execute or change of the exit plan depends on what we see, what we hear and what we feel.

Below are my “own guidelines” or “rules” when selling off my positions:

  • When the profit target is met (for momentum investing) or the stock price exceeds the intrinsic value (for value investing). I normally sell off 50% of my position to take profit and leave 50% to let the stock price continue its course as long as there is not trend reversal spotted in the chart.
  • When the stock price reverse its trend when the reversal pattern (e.g. head & shoulder, double top or triple top, etc) is formed.
  • When the stock price starts the down trend & the stock price below 20D, 50D and 200D MA. This is a very tough decision to make to cut loss and I have to keep reminding myself that I can buy the stock back at lower price next time! I look for opportunity to sell when the stock rebounds on a down trend.
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  • When the price move sideway for a long time unless this is a dividend stock. I can use my money to invest in other stocks for better gain.
  • When there is a fundamental change in the stock and I don’t foresee the stock price will rise in the near future. I sold Creative Technology which close to 40% loss because Creative Technology has lost its competitive advantage in Sound Blaster and its MP3 products.

Though I have worked out my entry and exit points, I still have to take full control over my emotion of Greed and Fear and need to have very good discipline to stick to my trading rules. I am learning to control this emotion every day & every trade, having buddies like Wilson & Daniel help me a lot in improving in this aspect.

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Risks & Rewards of Investing in FRE & FNM

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I bought FRE & FNM at about $0.60 and I have made 150% paper gains for these two stocks to date. Despite getting frequent reminders from my buddy to take profit, I am sticking to my original trading plan.


My trading plan
• Stock price target: $25 (FRE historical high is about $70, FNM is about $80)
• Time frame: 3 to 5 years

Potential Rewards
• 4200% (from $1,000 to $42,000) each stock


Risks
• I can lose EVERYTHING if FRE & FNM bankrupt or delisted from the stock exchange due to company re-structuring to clear all the bad debts & toxic assets! I am prepared to lose a total sum of $2,000 on FRE & FNM when I first buy the stocks.

My Risks Assessment on why I think this is a good bet!
(This is more like a gambling instead of calling it as investment!)

• FRE & FNM will not go bankrupt as US government has spent some much tax payers’ money to bail them out. They should have gone bankrupt long time ago if US government wants to do so.
• Real estate is one of the three main pillars of the economy recovery besides transportation/communication and finance sector. FRE & FNM play very the important roles to ensure real estate and property market in proper recovery path.
• FRE & FNM may not go back to previous high or reach its past performance. There is an extremely high probability the price will go up in the long term and the upside potential is huge!

Thus, in my opinion, FRE & FNM are good investment with calculated risks. The profit potential is extremely handsome even though it does not reach my price target. Of course, the assumption is they will not get de-listed during my investment time frame. Hope Murphy’s law does not applied here!

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StarHub – Big sell down!

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StarHub had big sell down with huge volume for two days and closed at $2.00 as StarHub lost its bid on English Premier League rights for 2010-2013 seasons to SingTel. The stock price broke 200D MA support line and $2.01 level (38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level).

The stock price may move further down as StarHub’s future earnings will be affected. Will continue to monitor this after shock effect of StarHub stock price and have no hurry to enter the trade until StarHub’s management give a new guidance in the coming quarterly earning briefing. StarHub dividend will probably be affected as well.

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