SMRT – Fundamental & Intrinsic Value

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Base on FY2009 Financial Report

  • Current Price = $1.73
  • PE = 16.1
  • Dividend Yield = 4.5%
  • NAV = $0.5074
  • Net Earning = 18.5%
  • Current Ratio = 0.942
  • ROA = 10.8%
  • ROE = 22.5%

Intrinsic Value Calculaton 

PE Model

  • Fair value PE, base on FY2009 EPS $0.10726
  • EPS Growth = 16.2%
  • Intrinsic Value = $1.61
  •  

  • PEG = 0.99

 
 
Discounted EPS Model

 

  • EPS Growth Rate = 16.2% (capped at 15% for calculation)
  • Discount Rate = 5%
  • FY2009 EPS = $0.10726
  •  Intrinsic Value = $1.83
DCF Model
Unable to calculate the Intrinsic Value because the Free Cash Flow is not consistent year over year. SMRT is not buying MRT trains every year and thus Annual Free Cash Flow is not increasing consistently due to inconsistent CAPEX.
SMRT intrinsic value is between $1.61 to $1.83. The current SMRT stock price is at its fair value.
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GoldenAgri – A strong resistance to break!

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GoldenAgri is having a very stong resistance at $0.493 to break before the stock price to move uptrend. It is also testing the 20D and 50D MA resistance level. It looks like a double top has been formed too. Base on the chart, bear will take charge in the short term. GoldenAgri really needs a strong bull to break all the resistances to go north!

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DRYS – Forming A Wedge

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DRYS has formed a wedge and currently testing its 20D & 200D MA. I will accumulate DRYS shares if it retraces back to $6.20 to $6.50 price range (wedge support). $6.00 is another very strong Fibobacci support level. 

The probability of the stock price goes below $6.00 is low because the global economy is recovering and the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is showing an uptrend. If this upward trend continues then that will be the proof that the economic uptrend will continue into 2010. The BDI is a great indicator for the demand of Dry Bulk goods (Coal, copper, lead, silver etc.). Increase in BDI equals increase in global economic activity. That also indicates the Dry Bulk Shipping Companies will have a better earning performance in the next few quarters.
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