Golden Agri: On Up Trend Channel

Golden Agriculture is currently trading within an Up Trend Channel.  As long as the channel support is not broken, a good entry is near the channel support which is at about $0.57.  The 50D MA should provide a good support at about $0.55. Near term resistance is $0.615.

For short term safe trade: entry point at $0.57, exit point at $0.615. 8% Profit target.

Cut loss if GoldenAgri breaks the 50D MA support.

Disclaimer: I am NOT a certified stock analysis. The analysis posted is for my own use only and for information sharing. Use the inforamtion at you own risk.

This Post Has 10 Comments

  1. RL

    If you set the scale to semi-log, and connect the lows of March 2009, Jul 2009, May 2010 and June 2010, to form a trendline, you might think twice about buying at $0.57.
    Moreover, the weekly momentum is down, daily EMA and momentum also heading down.
    I think $0.555 might be a better entry price, IF the technical picture improves.

  2. RL

    Formed an inverted hammer today, intraday low of $0.555.

  3. Marubozu

    RL, Thanks for highlighting and monitoring closely.

    Candlesticks pattern looks like going to reverse.
    (1) Inverted hammer at up trend channel support.
    (2) Stock price at 50D MA support.
    (3) Small Elliott Wave started since June. Look like ending at the Wave 4 and going to start Wave 5.
    (4) Downside risk capped at 200D MA at $0.54 unless there is a big bad news!

    Upside Potential = $0.615 – $0.555 => 10.8%
    Downside Risk = $0.555 – $0.54 ==> 2.7%

    Attractive entry point now! 🙂
    Good luck to everyone who follow my post closely!


  4. RL

    Based on technical indicators, I’m not sure if it is ok to buy yet.

  5. Instrinsic

    Hi Marubozu, i realized you are not into value investing already? Whats the instrinsic value of goldenagri?:)

  6. Marubozu

    Hi RL,
    I agree that other technical indicators have not shown a clear bullish signal yet. I am taking a little bit risky position to enter the trade in view of the limited downside.

  7. Marubozu

    Golden Agri’s net operating cashflow and EPS are not consistent every year. Thus, it is difficult to calculate intrinsic value using discounted cash flow (DCF) and discounted EPS model. Anyway, Golden Agri is not a stock for value investing.


  8. Instrinsic

    sorry im kinda noob here. Could you explain why golden agri is not a stock for value investing??

  9. Marubozu

    Value investing is a buy (buy below the stock’s intrinsic value) and hold strategy. In order to calculate intrinsic value, the company has to have “consistent” revenue growth, net profit growth and net operating cash flow growth year over year. If you check Golden Agri past few years financial report, you can see the above requirement are very inconsistent and does not meet the value investing stock selection criteria. Pls also check how Golden Agri value their assets because the valuation model may inflate the earning and their asset.

  10. Marubozu

    Watch out! Golden Agri breaks the support of $0.54 and closes at $0.535 today!

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