Keppel Corp – Testing the resistance for the 3rd time!

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Keppel Corp is testing the $8.45 resistance for the 3rd time! If it cannot break the resistance, a triple tops may be formed. There is also a divergence in price vs volume. If tomorrow market open gap down and end with a bearish candle, an Evening Star is formed and the trend will be reversed. The price may move down to around $7.00 level.

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Epure – it is time to take a breather!

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Epure International closed with a black marubozu candle today at $0.61. It has also formed a Head and Shoulders and will probably retrace back to test the 20D and 50D MA support lines again. If it breaks these MA support lines and move south, the trend reversal is confirmed. The chart and candlesticks pattern look bearish. However, a retracement back to $0.46 (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level) is good for a healthy long term up trend.

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SMRT – Fundamental & Intrinsic Value

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Base on FY2009 Financial Report

  • Current Price = $1.73
  • PE = 16.1
  • Dividend Yield = 4.5%
  • NAV = $0.5074
  • Net Earning = 18.5%
  • Current Ratio = 0.942
  • ROA = 10.8%
  • ROE = 22.5%

Intrinsic Value Calculaton 

PE Model

  • Fair value PE, base on FY2009 EPS $0.10726
  • EPS Growth = 16.2%
  • Intrinsic Value = $1.61

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  • PEG = 0.99

 
 
Discounted EPS Model

 

  • EPS Growth Rate = 16.2% (capped at 15% for calculation)
  • Discount Rate = 5%
  • FY2009 EPS = $0.10726
  •  Intrinsic Value = $1.83
DCF Model
Unable to calculate the Intrinsic Value because the Free Cash Flow is not consistent year over year. SMRT is not buying MRT trains every year and thus Annual Free Cash Flow is not increasing consistently due to inconsistent CAPEX.
SMRT intrinsic value is between $1.61 to $1.83. The current SMRT stock price is at its fair value.
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