Weekly Stock Market Analysis - My Stocks Investing

Weekly Inter Market Analysis Sept 11-2016

Post author:Marubozu
Post published:September 11, 2016

Learnt about JW5IMA in PMP. I create a KL8WIMA (Kenny Loh 8 Weekly Inter Market Analysis) for my own market watch. The objective is to monitor the correlation of different asset class / sectors movement every week. Feel free to comment if there are better alternatives.

Original post from https://mystocksinvesting.com

A long awaited sell off finally came on Friday (Sept 9-2016) after 2 months of low volatility and trading in a tight range for US market. Has the correction finally came? Will the sell off continue next week?

SPY (SPDR S&P500 ETF)

SPY gapped down and broken the support on last trading session. Next week will be crucial to see whether SPY can break the support to continue the sell off or rebound from here to continue the uptrend.

VIX

VIX spiked about 40% at last trading session. If VIX continues to move higher next week, tighten your seat belt!

SUDX (S&P US Dollar Futures Index)

SUDX is currently trading within a Symmetrical Triangle and likely to be trading in a tight range until a breakout. Wait for Yellen’s speech on the interest rate hike confirmation.

FXE (Currency Shares Euro ETF)

Down trend has stopped for FXE. FXE is curently trading sideway and range bound. Wait for Yellen’s speech on the interest rate hike confirmation before we can see the next big move.

XLE (SPDR Energy Sector ETF)

XLE came out from the down trend channel and currently looks like reversing to the uptrend. Crude Oil has bottomed up?

USO (United States Oil Fund)

USO is currently trading in a Symmetrical Triangle. Keep an eye on the next move when USO is trading closer to the apex of the triangle.

TLT (iShares 20+ Years Treasury Bond ETF)

SPY sold off, TLT sold off together? US Equity and Bond Market are moving in the same direction at the moment. This is not normal. Will the “Sell equity and move to bond in the bear market” strategy work moving forward? Base on the current equity and bond “synchronized movement”, we may need to watch this space very closely and rethink our portfolio re-balancing strategy.

GLD (SPDR Gold Shares)

Gold is currently trading in a consolidation (Rectangle pattern) and still on uptrend. Expect GLD to move to 141.19 (161.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level) as long as the uptrend support holds. Can GLD be the safe harbor if Equity & Bond market sell off?

Next Week Economic Calendar

Chinese New Year Bloodshed in Stock Market?

Post author:Marubozu
Post published:January 25, 2014

Dow Jones Industrial plunged more than 300 points on Friday. S&P500 and NASDAQ also dropped more than 2%. Basically ALL RED to celebrate the Chinese New Year! Is this the start of the long overdue stock market correction? Base on the stock market heatmap, looks like all sectors and worldwide stock market want to celebrate the Chinese New Year together!

Original post by Marubozu @ My Stocks Investing Journey.

Jan 24, 2014 (Friday) Market Snap Shot

Bear totally in-charged throughout the day. Bull was totally knocked out.

US Jan24-2014 Hourly Chart

All red for S&P500 Heatmap. Only Microsoft (MSFT), Kimbely-Clark (KMB) and Procter & Gamble (PG) showed gain but don’t be fooled by this + gain because they closed the day with a bearish candle.

S&P500 Heatmap Jan 24-2014

Industrial Goods sector is the worst performing sector and Utilities is the relative best performing sector. A typical pattern of a bearish market as Utilities is the defensive sector.

Sector Weekly Performance Jan24-2014

VIX jumped 31.74% to 18.14. This is a very bearish sign. If VIX does not drop in the next few sessions, expect more bloodshed in the stock market.

Only Short ETF (Bearish ETF) showed huge rally.

What is Short ETF?

ETF Jan24-2014

Worldwide Market showed all RED to celebrate the Chinese New Year.

WorldWide Jan24-2014

Is the Bear Waking Up?

Dow Jones Industrial, S&P500, NASDAQ are still on the uptrend. The 200D SMA are still sloping up and technically the market is still on up trend. However, it is important to take note that currently the stock market is at the Market Top. Anything can happen at this juncture on top of the QE tapering. So, watch the support closely and also the chart pattern. If there is formation of Head and Shoulder, the right shoulder formation is the best chance for investors to get out.

Dow Jones Jan25-2014

S&P500 Jan25-2014

NASDAQ Jan25-2014

What About Singapore Straits Time Index?

STI is trading in a Symmetrical Triangle with a critical support at 3024. This 3024 has been tested a few times (resistance turned support). More down side to come if this support is broken. Technically STI is in bearish consolidation territory and 200D SMA is sloping down now.

STI Jan24-2014

Summary

There are signs that the Bear has just woke up. It is still at early stage. The US Stock Market may be starting a little correction and continue the uptrend. Watch the support closely and trade base on what we see. This is not the good time to “hope” market can continue to go up and living in denial if we are seeing red in our portfolio. Tighten your stop loss, hedge your portfolio, prepare to cut loss or prepare to SHORT!

Wish everyone a Happy Chinese New Year but it depends on how we make decision and what we want to see in our portfolio (red or green)!