Golden Agri: On Up Trend Channel

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Golden Agriculture is currently trading within an Up Trend Channel.  As long as the channel support is not broken, a good entry is near the channel support which is at about $0.57.  The 50D MA should provide a good support at about $0.55. Near term resistance is $0.615.

For short term safe trade: entry point at $0.57, exit point at $0.615. 8% Profit target.

Cut loss if GoldenAgri breaks the 50D MA support.

Disclaimer: I am NOT a certified stock analysis. The analysis posted is for my own use only and for information sharing. Use the inforamtion at you own risk.

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Keppel Land: Elliott Wave Observed

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An Elliott Wave has been formed on Keppel Land and seems that currently KepLand is trading in Wave A now. Short term Wave A target is at  least reach $3.50 which is 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level. Coincidently this level is also a 200D MA support. Base on the chart pattern, KepLand is bearish. Other technical indicators like MACD, RSI, Stochastic, Bollinger Band, Parabolic SAR are supporting the bearish view.

If KepLand rebounds at the 200D MA support, that possibly indicates end of Wave A and start Wave B. It is important to see whether this 200D MA support is strong enough.

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OSIM: Long Term Up Trend Still Intact

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Base on the chart, Osim is still trading on an long term uptrend with a resistance at $1.08. However, Osim may be pulled back in to the uptrend support at about $0.86 which is also a 78.6% FR level in the near term. Fundamentally OSIM financial performance is average.

Base on FY2009 Financial Result:

  • Current PE = 28 at $0.975 (Overvalue)
  • Sales Renevue YOY is degrading since 2006 (Big Concern to me as OSIM may be facing fierce competition and losing its competitive advantage!)
  • Net Profit Margin = 4.9%  (This is bad for a company that sell BRAND!)
  • ROA = 10.1 %  (OK)
  • ROE = 24.2%  (Good)
  • Current Ratio = 1.3 (OK)

OSIM does not meet my stock selection criteria and I view the OSIM stock price may plunge if the competive advantages cannot be sustained. We can see quite a number of competing brands in Singapore and definitely in China and price competition definitely is a headache to Osim. Osim has to reinvent itself to continue to push out more innovative products to otherwise they cannot survive in this market place. Things to watch out for: Osim has to constantly push out innovative and “WOW” products every quarter, otherwise their profit margin and sales revenue may be further eroded.

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