Key US Market Indices Review: Reversal At Sight!

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All three key US Market Indices (Dow Jones, S&P500, NASDAQ) are hitting the uptrend channel resistance.  Immediate support is the 20D MA. If these three Moving Average supports are broken, these market indices will be sent to the uptrend support. This month is the month of October when most crashes happen in this month historically. Earning season is starting soon when the companys report last quater earning. I expect lots of earning downgrade because I am seeing slowing down in economy for the next two quarters.

Dow Jones Industrial

S&P500 (SPY)

NASDAQ

Sept has been a bullish month, What goes up must come down…. I may be wrong but I will not lose money if I am taking a safety first , wait and see approach without committing any additional money in the market.

Trade with extreme cautious!

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Meiban: On Uptrend but may pull back

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Base on current chart pattern, Meiban is On Uptrend as the stock price moves above 20D, 50D and 200D MA. However, Meiban is closing to the immediate resistance at $0.35 and may pull back to the uptrend channel support at about $0.31, which is also a 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Support.

In view of the Upside Potential vs Downside Risk, a safer entry price is at $0.31 which is near the uptrend support. Breaking below this 78.6% FR support indicates the uptrend is over.

Note: Meiban is also forming an Ascending Triangle. 

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OSIM: Long Term Up Trend Still Intact

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Base on the chart, Osim is still trading on an long term uptrend with a resistance at $1.08. However, Osim may be pulled back in to the uptrend support at about $0.86 which is also a 78.6% FR level in the near term. Fundamentally OSIM financial performance is average.

Base on FY2009 Financial Result:

  • Current PE = 28 at $0.975 (Overvalue)
  • Sales Renevue YOY is degrading since 2006 (Big Concern to me as OSIM may be facing fierce competition and losing its competitive advantage!)
  • Net Profit Margin = 4.9%  (This is bad for a company that sell BRAND!)
  • ROA = 10.1 %  (OK)
  • ROE = 24.2%  (Good)
  • Current Ratio = 1.3 (OK)

OSIM does not meet my stock selection criteria and I view the OSIM stock price may plunge if the competive advantages cannot be sustained. We can see quite a number of competing brands in Singapore and definitely in China and price competition definitely is a headache to Osim. Osim has to reinvent itself to continue to push out more innovative products to otherwise they cannot survive in this market place. Things to watch out for: Osim has to constantly push out innovative and “WOW” products every quarter, otherwise their profit margin and sales revenue may be further eroded.

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