Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS8670)

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased from 767.98  to 783.05 (+1.96%) as compared to last post on Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Nov 5, 2018.

Currently the index is trading in a down trend channel after finding a short term support around 760. This support was tested on 4 occasions since mid Oct. Currently the REIT index moves above the 20D and 50D SMA indicates short term bullishness. There may be a chance the REIT index enters into side way consolidation mode based on chart pattern.

Based on the current chart pattern and trend analysis, the trend for Singapore REIT direction SIDE WAY to DOWN! The REIT index will be capped by the immediate resistance at about 800 which is the 200D SMA resistance and also the round number.

Fundamental Analysis of 39 Singapore REITs

The following is the compilation of 39 REITs in Singapore as of Nov 2018 with colour coding of the Distribution Yield, Gearing Ratio and Price to NAV Ratio. This gives investors a quick glance of which REITs are attractive enough to have an in-depth analysis. There are currently 39 REITs in Singapore after VIVA Industrial Trust merged into ESR REIT.

• Price/NAV increases from 0.93 to 0.94 (Singapore Overall REIT sector is under value now).
• Distribution Yield stays at 7.16% (take note that this is lagging number). About 46% of Singapore REITs (18 out of 39) have Distribution Yield > 7%.
• Gearing Ratio increases slightly from 34.5% to 34.6%.  19 out of 39 have Gearing Ratio more than 35%. In general, Singapore REITs sector gearing ratio is healthy. Note: The limit of gearing ratio for REITs listed in Singapore Stock Exchange is 45%.
• The most overvalue REIT is Parkway Life (Price/NAV = 1.57), followed by Keppel DC REIT (Price/NAV = 1.33), Mapletree Industrial Trust (Price/NAV = 1.28) and Ascendas REIT (Price/NAV = 1.25).
• The most undervalue (base on NAV) is OUE Comm REIT (Price/NAV = 0.53), followed by Fortune REIT (Price/NAV = 0.56), Keppel KBS US REIT (Price/NAV=0.64), Far East Hospitality Trust (Price/NAV = 0.69) and Starhill Global REIT (Price/NAV = 0.74).
• The Highest Distribution Yield (TTM) is Lippo Mall Indonesia Retail Trust (12.39%), followed by Cromwell European REIT (10.76%), Keppel KBS US REIT (10.58%), OUE Comm REIT (9.51%), Sasseur REIT (9.02%), SoilBuild BizREIT (8.99%), EC World REIT (8.73%) and Cache Logistic Trust (8.51%).
• The Highest Gearing Ratio are Far East HTrust (40.3%) and OUE Comm REIT (41.4%).

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. To learn how to use the table and make investing decision, Sign up next REIT Investing Seminar here to learn how to choose a fundamentally strong REIT for long term investing for passive income generation.

• 1 month increases from 1.51592% to 1.63433%
• 3 month increases from 1.64286% to 1.75908%
• 6 month increases from 1.75705% to 1.87918%
• 12 month increases from 1.96875% to 2.06375%

The FTSE ST REIT index is selling down in anticipating the coming Dec rate hike to 2.5%.   The current probability of interest rate hike to 2.5% is 87.8%, increases from 68.8% compared to previous month.

Summary

Fundamentally the whole Singapore REITs is under value now.  Overall yield for Singapore REIT is getting attractive (average yield of 7.16%). The last time we have seen Price/NAV = 0.93 and Distribution Yield of more than 7% is back to Dec 2015. You may compare the Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table in Dec 2015 to see the similarity and you should be able to identify some attractive opportunities.

Yield spread (reference to 10 year Singapore government bond) has compressed from 4.654% to 4.476%.  DPU yield for a number of small and mid-cap REITs are very attractive  (>8%) at the moment.  Some big cap REITs are also getting attractive in terms of valuation and distribution yield. There were number of Rights issue recently like Keppel KBS US REIT and Cromwell European REIT. It is expected the frequency of Rights issue by the REITs will increase in a rising interest rate environment because the cost of borrowing is relatively cheaper compared to debt financing. Investors have to pay extra attention and reserve additional cash for any rights issue.

Technically, the REIT index is entering into consolidation phase with immediate support at 760. The current price level for REIT index may have already priced in the interest rate hike to 2.5%. As long as 760 support holds, it may be a good time for more accumulation because the risk premium is very attractive for small and medium cap REITs now. Investors can do some selective shopping when the down trend stop for those REITs.

Safe shopping on Singapore REITs!

See all other relevant  Singapore REITs blog posts here.

If you need an independent professional review on your current REIT portfolio and need any recommendation, you may engage me in the REIT portfolio Advisory. REITs Portfolio Advisory.  https://mystocksinvesting.com/course/private-portfolio-review/