APPLE (AAPL) Fundamental and Technical Analysis

  • Post author:

For my team member.

  • Current Price: $373.80
  • Current PE: 17.82

Fundamental Analysis (base on FY10)

  • Gross Margin: 39.38%
  • Net Margin: 21.48%
  • ROA: 22.8%
  • ROE: 35.3%
  • Current Ratio: 2.1
  • Debt to Equity: Net Cash

 

  • Cash Flow Growth Rate (1-3 Years) = 19.35%
  • Cash Flow Growth Rate (4-10 Years) = 15% (capped)
  • Beta = 1.34
  • Discount Rate = 7%
  • Discounted Cash Flow Model Intrinsic Value = $412.98

Technical Analysis

  • Breakout from consolidation pattern and 52 weeks high resistance at $363.30.
  • Apple stock price is trading above 20D, 50D and 200D MA.
  • 20D crosses above 50D MA.
  • Need to monitor whether Apple can stay above the Immediate Support (resistance turned support) at $363.30.
  • 2nd support at about $342 (20D MA and also the resistance turned support).
  • Since Apple stock is currently under value, can start accumulating when the stock pull back to the support level (provided support is not broken).

 

Continue ReadingAPPLE (AAPL) Fundamental and Technical Analysis

Apple (AAPL) – 10th Candle Reversal!

  • Post author:

AAPL appeared to have a Tenth Candle Reversal base on the monthly chart. This pattern is bearish and AAPL will probably start retracing to $160 level (61.8% Fibonacci Level).

Weekly chart showed APPL has broken 4 Weeks (1 month) MA & at 12 Weeks (3 months) MA.

Daily chart showed APPL broke 20D & 50D MA support line and currently at the lower band of Bollinger Band. The daily, weekly and monthly charts show the deep correction has started for AAPL.

Continue ReadingApple (AAPL) – 10th Candle Reversal!

Goldman Sachs and Apple – Get Ready to Short!

  • Post author:

I am preparing to short (buy PUT option) Goldman Sachs (GS) & Apple (AAPL) if the charts pattern are confirmed bearish.

Goldman Sachs (GS) appears to be forming a Head & Shoulders pattern. I am waiting for the right shoulder to be formed. The stock has been on the up trend since Mar 2009 and is due for a healthy correction. The 50D MA provides a very strong support line as the stock price bounced back twice in beginning of July and early Sept.

Things to watch out for GS:

  • Whether the right shoulder is formed?
  • Can the stock price breakdown the 50D MA support (probably concides with the neckline if H&S pattern is formed)?

Apple (AAPL) broke the 20D MA with a long bearish candle last Friday. The long term channel resistance which also coincides with its 50D MA trend line at about $185, is a critical support. Falling below this support could start the correction and see the price fall to $158.19 level (61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level). Both MACD and RSI are bearish. MACD had confirmed its dead crossover and RSI broke its support trend line.

Things to watch out for AAPL:
  • Whether the stock price breakdown from the long term up trend channel resistance?
  • After the support is broken, whether AAPL can move back to the channel (i.e. the channel support become very strong resistance to prevent AAPL to move back to the channel)?
Continue ReadingGoldman Sachs and Apple – Get Ready to Short!